John Kerry holds a narrow lead over George Bush in the race for New Hampshire‚Äôs 4 electoral votes. Incumbent governor Craig Benson narrowly leads his Democratic challenger, John Lynch.  Election: 200

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 1  WMUR / UNH New Hampshire Tracking Poll  By: Andrew E. Smith, Ph.D. (603) 862-2226 October 28, 2004  Dennis M. Junius, M.A.           6:30 P.M. UNH Survey Center www.unh.edu/survey-center                 KERRY TAKES NARROW LEAD IN NH  Durham, NH – John Kerry holds a narrow lead over George Bush in the race for New Hampshire’s 4 electoral votes.  Incumbent governor Craig Benson narrowly leads his Democratic challenger, John Lynch.   These findings are based on the 2004 WMUR / UNH New Hampshire Tracking Poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center.  This survey is sponsored by WMUR-TV Manchester and the University of New Hampshire.* Seven hundred fifty-eight (758) likely New Hampshire voters were interviewed between October 25 and October 27, 2004.  The potential sampling error for the survey is ±3.6%.  (For more information about the NH Election Tracking Poll, go to www.unh.edu/survey-center/track04.html)  Presidential Election  John Kerry has a narrow lead over George Bush in New Hampshire.  Currently, 50 percent of  likely voters say they will vote for Kerry, 46 percent will vote for Bush, 1 percent will vote for Ralph Nader or some other candidate, and only 3 percent remain undecided.  In an early October WMUR / UNH poll, Bush held a 50 to 45 percent lead over Kerry.   The most important issues to voters in the presidential election are jobs and the economy (22%), the war in Iraq (22%) and the war on terrorism (21%).  Kerry runs strongest among Democrats and in the Connecticut Valley.  Bush does best among Republicans and in the Manchester area.  Kerry leads among swing voters by 54 percent to 35 percent.  There is a gender gap that favors Kerry – women prefer Kerry by a 54 percent to 41 percent margin while men prefer Bush 52 percent to 45 percent.  Gubernatorial Election  In the race for New Hampshire Governor, incumbent Republican Craig Benson has taken a slight lead over John Lynch.  Currently 47 percent of New Hampshire voters say they plan to vote for Benson, 44 prefer John Lynch, 1 percent favor some other candidate, and 9 percent are undecided.  In an early October  WMUR / UNH poll, Benson and Lynch were tied with 43 percent each.  The most important issue to voters in the governors race are taxes (28%), education funding (18%), jobs and the economy (15%), and ethics in government (13%).  Benson and Lynch do well among their partisans and Lynch has a slight 46 percent to 41 percent lead among swing voters.  Benson does best in the Massachusetts border town, where his anti-tax message plays especially well, and in Manchester.  Lynch runs best in traditional Democratic strongholds near Concord and in the Connecticut Valley  U.S. Senate  Incumbent Republican Senator Judd Gregg holds a commanding 62 percent to 23 percent lead over Democratic challenger “Granny D” Haddock with 1 percent preferring some other candidate and 13 percent remaining undecided.  Gregg has maintained a wide lead over Granny D throughout the race.  U.S. Congress  In New Hampshire’s First Congressional district, incumbent Republican Jeb Bradley leads Democrat Justin Nadeau by a comfortable margin – 60 percent of likely voters say they will vote for Bradley, 26 percent prefer Nadeau, and 14 percent are undecided.  In the Second District, incumbent Republican Charlie Bass leads Democrat Paul Hodes 57 percent to 30 percent, with 2 percent preferring some other candidate and 12 percent undecided.                                                  * We ask that this copyrighted information be referred to as the WMUR / UNH New Hampshire Tracking Poll, sponsored by WMUR-TV and the University of New Hampshire.  2  2004 Presidential Election - Bush vs. Kerry vs. Nader "Now, suppose the 2004 presidential election were being held TODAY.  If you had to choose between George W. Bush, the Republican …  John Kerry, the Democrat …  or Ralph Nader, the Independent, who would you vote for?"  (ROTATE CANDIDATES)   George W John Other/  Bush Kerry Nader Undecided (N)  September 25 – October 3 50% 45% 1% 5% 521 October 25-27 (Latest) 46% 50% 1% 3% 746  Democrat  7  90 1 2 310 Independent  26  61 3  10  99 Republican 90 9 1 1 327  Registered Democrat  10  88 1 2 203 Undeclared 34  57 2 6 260 Registered Republican  89  11 0 0 247 Not registered 45  47 0 7  36  Core GOP 94 6 0 0 279 Swing Voter  35  54 3 8 220 Core Dem. 3  95 0 2 247  Male 52  45 2 2 358 Female 41  54 1 4 389  18 to 34 46  52 0 2 152 35 to 49 48  45 2 4 280 50 to 64 42  55 0 2 205 65 and over  47  49 1 2  94  North Country  38  57 2 4  66 Central / Lakes  42  55 0 3 125 Connecticut Valley 41  59 0 0 110 Mass Border  47  46 2 5 178 Seacoast 47  50 2 1 121 Manchester Area  56  39 1 4 146  Approve  87  10 1 2 360 Neither  14  35 5  47  12 Disapprove  7  89 1 2 372  1st Cong. District 53  44 2 2 399 2nd Cong. District 39  56 1 5 348  1st E.C. District  39  58 1 2 149 2nd E.C. District  42  53 1 4 149 3rd E.C. District  50  49 1 1 172 4th E.C. District  54  41 2 3 149 5th E.C. District  45  47 2 6 124  3  Benson vs. Lynch "Now, suppose the 2004 gubernatorial election was being held today and the candidates were Craig Benson, the Republican and John Lynch, the Democrat.  Who would you vote for ... Craig Benson or John Lynch?"  (ROTATE CANDIDATES)   Craig John  DK/  Benson Lynch Other Not Sure (N) September 25 – October 3 43% 43% 1% 13% 527 October 25-27 (Latest) 47% 44% 1% 9% 747  Democrat 19  70 1 10 307 Independent 35  47 2 16 100 Republican 77  17 1 5 329  Registered Democrat 13  76 1 10 202 Undeclared 43  47 1 9 258 Registered Republican 79  15 0 6 248 Not registered 41  32 3 25  37  Core GOP 83  11 1 6 282 Swing Voter 41  46 1 12 218 Core Dem. 10  79 1 10 247  Male 53  39 1 7 356 Female 41  48 1 11 390  18 to 34 46  42 1 11 151 35 to 49 49  41 1 9 281 50 to 64 43  48 1 7 204 65 and over 47  45 1 7  95  North Country 47  47 0 6  68 Central / Lakes 43  50 1 6 123 Connecticut Valley 35  53 0 12 111 Mass Border 54  34 2 9 178 Seacoast 41  47 0 11 117 Manchester Area 54  37 1 8 149  Approve 74  19 1 6 361 Neither 10  55 0 35  12 Disapprove 21  67 1 11 369  1st Cong. District 51  40 1 8 398 2nd Cong. District 42  47 1 10 349  1st E.C. District 41  50 0 9 151 2nd E.C. District 41  52 0 7 148 3rd E.C. District 50  38 1 10 168 4th E.C. District 53  37 1 9 151 5th E.C. District 48  42 1 9 126  4  Senatorial Race: Gregg vs. Haddock "Suppose the election for U.S. Senate were being held TODAY and the candidates were Judd Gregg, the Republican and Dorris “Granny D” Haddock, the Democrat.  Who would you vote for …  Judd Gregg or “Granny D” Haddock?”  ROTATE CANDIDATES    Judd    Doris  DK/  Gregg Haddock Other Not Sure (N)  September 25 – October 3 52% 21% 0% 16% 527 October 25-27 (Latest) 62% 23% 1% 13% 738  Democrat 34  45 1  20 303 Independent  52  20 3  25  97 Republican 92 3 1 4 329  Registered Democrat  32  53 0  14 200 Undeclared 55  19 4  22 255 Registered Republican  95 3 0 2 248 Not registered 54  14 3  29  33  Core GOP 94 2 0 3 282 Swing Voter  63  13 3  21 213 Core Dem.  25  55 2  18 244  Male 68  20 3  10 352 Female 57  26 0  17 386  18 to 34 53  28 1  18 150 35 to 49 66  19 2  13 273 50 to 64 60  25 2  14 205 65 and over  71  25 0 5  94  North Country  69  14 3  14  68 Central / Lakes  63  29 1 7 123 Connecticut Valley 50  33 2  15 111 Mass Border  63  18 1  18 170 Seacoast 60  24 1  15 119 Manchester Area  68  19 2  11 146  Approve  85 7 0 8 360 Neither  33 4 0  62  12 Disapprove 40  40 3  17 361  1st Cong. District 67  19 2  12 396 2nd Cong. District 57  27 1  15 342  1st E.C. District  61  23 2  13 151 2nd E.C. District  62  28 1 9 147 3rd E.C. District  63  20 1  16 169 4th E.C. District  69  16 2  13 147 5th E.C. District  55  28 0  17 122  5  1st Congressional District: Bradley vs. Nadeau "Suppose the election for U.S. Congress were being held TODAY and the candidates in your district were Jeb Bradley, the Republican and Justin Nadeau (NED – O), the Democrat.  Who would you vote for …  Jeb Bradley or Justin Nadeau?"  ROTATE CANDIDATES    Jeb    Justin  DK/  Bradley Nadeau Other Not Sure (N)  1st Cong. Dist. - September 25 – October 3 58% 25% 0% 17% 270 1st Cong. Dist. – Oct. 25-27 (Latest) 60% 26% 0% 14% 383  Democrat 26  55 1  19 145 Independent  59  22 0  19  43 Republican 86 5 0 9 192  Registered Democrat  26  62 0  12  96 Undeclared 54  24 1  21 122 Registered Republican  89 5 0 6 148 Not registered 45  15 0  40  18  Core GOP 92 2 0 6 161 Swing Voter  63  14 0  22 104 Core Dem.  13  68 1  17 118  Male 68  21 1  10 180 Female 53  30 0  17 203  18 to 34 53  26 0  20  77 35 to 49 70  19 0  12 144 50 to 64 52  31 1  16 106 65 and over  58  34 0 8  50  Northern NH  55  39 0 6  38 Central/Lakes  73  23 0 4  39 Hillsborough County  69  18 0  12 104 Seacoast 54  27 1  18 202  Approve  86 6 0 8 209 Neither  26 0 0  74 5 Disapprove 29  51 1  19 168  6  2nd Congressional District: Bass vs. Hodes "Suppose the election for U.S. Congress were being held TODAY and the candidates in your district were Charlie Bass, the Republican and Paul Hodes, the Democrat.  Who would you vote for …  Charlie Bass or Paul Hodes?"   ROTATE CANDIDATES    Charlie  Paul  DK/  Bass Hodes Other Not Sure (N)  2nd Cong. Dist. – Sept. 25 – Oct. 3 53% 28% 1% 18% 256 2nd Cong. District – Oct. 25-27 (Latest) 57% 30% 2% 12% 346  Democrat 31  55 1  13 157 Independent  57  22 0  22  52 Republican 86 4 3 7 132  Registered Democrat  31  62 0 7 102 Undeclared 52  26 3  20 132 Registered Republican  88 5 2 5  97 Not registered 65 9 8  19  14  Core GOP 89 1 4 6 116 Swing Voter  63  15 1  20 107 Core Dem.  20  69 0  10 124  Male 61  29 3 6 167 Female 52  30 1  17 179  18 to 34 56  30 4  11  73 35 to 49 55  26 2  17 127 50 to 64 52  38 0  10  93 65 and over  69  27 0 4  45  Northern NH  62  30 1 7  64 Western NH 45  33 0  22  69 Central/Lakes  53  37 1 9  80 Hillsborough County  60  23 4  13 106 Seacoast 71  26 0 2  28  Approve  79 7 2  11 147 Neither  77 0 0  23 7 Disapprove 37  49 2  12 190  7  New Hampshire House Races: Democrat vs. Republican "Please think about the upcoming election for your representative to the New Hampshire House of Representatives.  As of today ... do you plan to vote for the Democratic or Republican candidate for the New Hampshire House of Representatives ... or do you plan to skip the election for New Hampshire House of Representatives this time?"  ROTATE PARTIES        DK/  Republican Democrat Other Not Sure (N)  October 25-27 (Latest) 41% 40% 3% 15% 686  Democrat  3  83 2  12 282 Independent  18  32 9  41  83 Republican 82 4 3  12 311  Registered Democrat 4  88 0 7 188 Undeclared 28  40 7  26 225 Registered Republican  84 4 2  11 245 Not registered 37  33 3  27  27  Core GOP 89 2 2 8 271 Swing Voter  23  28 7  42 181 Core Dem. 1  94 1 4 234  Male 50  32 4  14 327 Female 34  47 2  17 359  18 to 34 36  43 3  19 131 35 to 49 42  38 4  15 254 50 to 64 41  43 2  15 193 65 and over  46  39 3  11  92  North Country  39  46 0  16  63 Central / Lakes  36  43 2  19 119 Connecticut Valley 32  50 1  17 102 Mass Border  44  36 7  13 161 Seacoast 44  46 2 8 107 Manchester Area  49  28 3  20 134  Approve  72 9 4  15 336 Neither  17  35 0  48 9 Disapprove 11  71 2  15 336  1st Cong. District 47  36 3  13 367 2nd Cong. District 35  44 3  18 319  1st E.C. District  34  47 1  18 140 2nd E.C. District  40  42 0  18 139 3rd E.C. District  44  43 3  10 149 4th E.C. District  52  34 2  12 140 5th E.C. District  36  35  10  19 114  8  New Hampshire Senate Races: Democrat vs. Republican "Please think about the upcoming election for your representative to the New Hampshire Senate.  As of today ... do you plan to vote for the Democratic or Republican candidate for the New Hampshire Senate ... or do you plan to skip the election for New Hampshire Senate this time?"  ROTATE PARTIES        DK/  Republican Democrat Other Not Sure (N)  October 25-27 (Latest) 45% 40% 3% 12% 691  Democrat  8  80 2  10 283 Independent  18  37  11  34  83 Republican 86 5 2 8 316  Registered Democrat 8  86 0 6 194 Undeclared 34  38 7  21 223 Registered Republican  86 5 2 8 245 Not registered 42  36 0  22  27  Core GOP 92 2 1 5 276 Swing Voter  31  30 7  32 177 Core Dem. 2  91 2 5 238  Male 54  31 5  10 329 Female 37  47 1  14 362  18 to 34 40  41 3  17 135 35 to 49 49  37 4  10 258 50 to 64 43  41 3  14 193 65 and over  43  46 3 8  93  North Country  35  46 4  15  64 Central / Lakes  38  46 1  15 118 Connecticut Valley 35  48 2  14 107 Mass Border  51  36 5 8 160 Seacoast 47  44 2 6 105 Manchester Area  55  26 3  16 137  Approve  79 8 4 9 337 Neither 6  31 0  63 9 Disapprove 12  72 2  14 339  1st Cong. District 50  36 3  11 371 2nd Cong. District 40  44 3  13 320  1st E.C. District  37  46 2  15 142 2nd E.C. District  40  45 1  14 138 3rd E.C. District  51  39 2 8 148 4th E.C. District  57  30 2  11 145 5th E.C. District  40  39 8  13 115  9 Most Important Issue in Vote for President "Of the following list, which one of these will be the single most important issue in your vote for president this year …  the U.S. campaign against terrorism …  the war in Iraq …  the economy and jobs …  education …  health care …  Medicare and prescription drugs …  Social Security …  gas and oil prices …  or something else?"  ROTATE RESPONSES   HealthMedicare/ Social All of theDon’t  Jobs Iraq Terror Educ. Care Rx Drugs Security Other Above Know (N=) October 25-27 (Latest)  22% 22% 21%  3%  8%  2%  2% 11%  5%  3% 758  Democrat 27 32  5  4 10  3  4  9  4  3 311 Independent  24 22  9  3 13  2  5 10  7  5 101 Republican 17 14 40  2  5  2  1 12  7  1 333  Registered Democrat  23 33  4  4  8  4  4 11  5  4 203 Undeclared 24 23 16  4 13  1  2 10  5  2 266 Registered Republican  18 12 41  1  3  2  2 11  7  2 250 Not registered 25 25 10  2  8  6  0 16  5  3  37  Core GOP 14 13 43  2  4  1  1 12  7  2 283 Swing Voter  28 24 10  3  9  4  2 10  6  4 226 Core Dem.  24 31  5  5 13  2  4 10  4  3 249  Bush vs. Kerry George W. Bush 17 14 41  2  4  1  1 13  7  2 345 John Kerry 26 31  4  3 12  3  5  9  3  4 371 Nader/Other  14 31  0  0  9 14  0  6 26  0 9 Undecided  29 12  6 22 11 10  0  3  6  0  22  Male 25 19 26  2  6  2  2 12  5  2 363 Female 19 25 16  4 10  2  3 10  6  4 395  18 to 34 31 20 19  4  4  1  2 12  3  4 152 35 to 49 26 20 19  3  9  1  1 13  7  2 283 50 to 64 15 30 23  3 10  1  3  7  5  3 209 65 and over  15 19 26  1  8 12  5  9  3  2  98  North Country  22 20 23  4 12  5  2 10  3  0  68 Central / Lakes  18 22 18  4 11  3  3 11  8  2 126 Connecticut Valley 23 31 16  3  4  1  1 12  3  6 112 Mass Border  22 21 21  5  5  1  4 10  8  3 180 Seacoast 28 21 18  2 10  3  1 11  3  4 123 Manchester Area  18 19 27  1 10  3  3 11  5  1 150  Approve  18 14 37  2  5  2  1 13  7  2 364 Neither  11  0  4 19  0 14  6 22 16  8  13 Disapprove 26 31  6  4 12  2  4  8  3  3 375  1st Cong. District 22 19 23  2  8  3  3 12  4  3 406 2nd Cong. District 21 26 17  4  8  2  2 10  7  3 352  1st E.C. District  23 25 20  3  9  3  3  9  3  2 151 2nd E.C. District  18 28 19  3  9  2  1 10  8  3 151 3rd E.C. District  24 20 18  3  9  1  2 13  5  5 172 4th E.C. District  19 18 29  2  8  4  4  9  5  2 153 5th E.C. District  26 21 16  5  7  1  2 13  6  2 127  10 Most Important Issue in Vote for Governor "Of the following list, which one of these will be the single most important issue in your vote for New Hampshire governor this year …  education funding …  taxes …  ethics in government …  the cost of health insurance …  cuts in public services …   jobs and the economy ... health care … or something else?"  ROTATE RESPONSES   Ethics in Cost of Cuts in Jobs/ Health All of theDon’t   Educ. Taxes Gov. Insurance Services Economy Care Other Above Know (N=) October 25-27 (Latest)  18% 28% 13%  7%  4% 15%  7% 3%  2%  3% 756  Democrat 24 18 14  6  5 17  9  3  2  2 309 Independent  20 26 12 11  2 13  7  0  4  5 101 Republican 12 38 13  6  3 13  5  3  2  4 333  Registered Democrat  21 16 19  6  6 18  9  1  2  2 203 Undeclared 22 29 12  7  3 13  6  2  2  2 264 Registered Republican  11 38 11  6  3 13  6  5  3  4 250 Not registered 12 16  2 21  3 20 11  0  2 12  37  Core GOP 12 40  9  6  3 14  6  4  2  3 283 Swing Voter  15 28 17  9  3 15  4  1  4  5 225 Core Dem.  27 14 15  6  6 16 11  3  1  2 249  Benson vs. Lynch Craig Benson 12 42  7  8  1 15  6  4  3  2 347 John Lynch 26 14 21  4  6 13  8  2  2  3 325 Other 8  8  0 40  0 19 25  0  0  0 7 Undecided  13 22 10 13  5 19  7  3  2  7  66  Male 15 33 15  7  3 14  4  3  3  2 362 Female 21 23 11  6  4 16  9  3  2  4 395  18 to 34 19 26  6  9  6 18  7  3  1  6 152 35 to 49 18 29 13  7  4 17  6  3  2  1 282 50 to 64 18 28 19  4  4 13  7  1  3  3 209 65 and over  18 26 16 10  2  7 12  3  3  4  98  North Country  29 13  8  7  8 15 14  3  2  0  68 Central / Lakes 9 25 13  6  9 20  6  6  2  4 126 Connecticut Valley 23 25 14 10  2 13  6  0  3  5 112 Mass Border  21 36 10  4  0 16  7  2  2  1 178 Seacoast 19 25 18  7  2 12  6  0  1  9 123 Manchester Area  12 31 16  9  4 13  6  4  4  2 150  Approve  15 39 10  6  3 14  5  3  3  3 364 Neither  35  0  6  8  0 17  0  0 16 18  13 Disapprove 20 18 17  8  5 16  9  3  1  3 373  1st Cong. District 16 28 12  8  5 16  6  3  2  4 406 2nd Cong. District 21 27 14  5  3 14  8  3  3  3 351  1st E.C. District  22 17  7  9  8 16 10  4  2  4 151 2nd E.C. District  15 28 17  3  5 15  5  4  4  4 151 3rd E.C. District  18 30 11  6  1 16  8  1  2  5 172 4th E.C. District  14 37 12  6  3 16  6  3  1  1 153 5th E.C. District  22 26 20  8  1 11  6  1  4  1 126    

WMUR / UNH New Hampshire Tracking Poll 10/28/2004

https://scholars.unh.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1444&amp;context=survey_center_polls

WMUR / UNH New Hampshire Tracking Poll 10/28/2004

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