With 8days remaining until the February 1 New Hampshire Primary election, Vice President Al Gore is leading Bill Bradley among Democrats and John McCain and George W. Bush are deadlocked.  Election: NH Primary 200

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* We ask users to properly attribute this copyrighted information to the “WMUR / FOX News New Hampshire Primary Tracking Poll,”conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center.** The UNH Survey Center will conduct daily tracking until January 30, 2000.  The tracking poll results will be reported each day.WMUR / FOX NewsNew Hampshire Primary Tracking PollFOR RELEASEBy: Andrew E. Smith, Ph.D. January 24, 2000UNH Survey Center 6:00 P.M.www.unh.edu/ipssr/survey-center (603) 862-2226Gore Opens Lead Over Bradley, Bush and McCain EvenDurham, NH -- With 8days remaining until the February 1 New Hampshire Primary election, Vice President Al Gore isleading Bill Bradley among Democrats and John McCain and George W. Bush are deadlocked.These findings are based on the WMUR / FOX News New Hampshire Primary Tracking Poll,* conducted by the Universityof New Hampshire Survey Center.  Six hundred sixty-one (661) likely New Hampshire primary voters were interviewedbetween January 20 and January 23, 2000; 381 likely Republican primary voters and 280 Democratic primary voters.  Thepotential sampling error for the survey is ±3.8%, the sampling error for Republican sub-sample ±5% and ±6% for theDemocratic sub-sample.Republican PrimaryArizona Senator John McCain and Texas Governor George W. Bush are locked in an extremely tight battle in the criticalNew Hampshire Republican primary.  In the latest WMUR / FOX News New Hampshire Primary Tracking Poll, 38% oflikely Republican primary voters say they will vote for Arizona Senator John McCain and 37% say they will vote for TexasGovernor George W. Bush.  Businessman Steve Forbes has not caught on among Republican voters and is currently favoredby 12% of likely Republican primary voters.  Eight percent say they plan to vote for former Ambassador Alan Keyes, 1%plan to vote for Gary Bauer, 1% say they will vote for Senator Orrin Hatch, and only 3% say they are still undecided.Bush appears to have regained the momentum going into the final week of campaigning before the election and he isrunning particularly well among registered Republicans -- 43% favor Bush and 34% plan to vote for McCain.  However,McCain continues to lead Bush among undeclared voters who plan to vote in the Republican primary, 48% to 23%.The GOP electorate is still volatile with 67% saying they are certain to vote for the candidate they support and one-thirdsaying the may change their minds.  Bush and McCain voters are more certain in their support, 71% say they are certain intheir vote.Bush and McCain are also faring well as a second choice candidate.  When asked who would be there second choice, 30%named Bush, 27% named McCain, 16% named Forbes, and 15% named some other candidate.Bush’s strongest support comes from voters who consider themselves strong Republicans, young voters (18 to 29) and thosewith lower levels of income (under $25,000).  McCain’s strongest support comes from undeclared voters, Independents,those who have a favorable opinion of President Clinton, upper income voters, voters with post graduate educations, andresidents of Northern New Hampshire.The most important issues to likely Republican primary voters are taxes (21%), the economy (15%), health care (14%),social security (12%), morality (11%), and education (9%).NH Republican PrimaryBauer Bush Forbes Hatch Keyes McCain Und. (N)January 20 - 23 (Latest) 1% 37% 12% 1% 8% 38% 3% 381Undeclared 2 23 15 1 9 48 2Registered Republican 1 43 11 1 8 34 3Democratic PrimaryAmong likely Democratic primary voters, Vice President Al Gore has opened a lead over former New Jersey Senator BillBradley.  Currently 50% of likely Democratic Primary voters say they will vote for Gore, 41% plan to vote for Bradley, 1%favor some other candidate, and 8% remain undecided.Earlier polls conducted by UNH have shown Bradley leading Gore among undeclared voters who plan to vote in theDemocratic primary.  Bradley’s advantage in this group has largely evaporated and they are now essentially tied amongundeclared voters -- 48% favor Bradley and 45% favor Gore.  Gore leads Bradley among registered Democrats by 53% to38%.President Bill Clinton continues to have an impact on the Democratic race.  Among those likely Democratic primary voterswho have an unfavorable opinion of Clinton, 62% say they will vote for Bradley and only 31% say they will vote for Gore. Bradley also gets strong support from voters with post-graduate educations, upper income voters, people who have lived inNew Hampshire 5 years or less, and residents of the Central/Lakes region of New Hampshire.NH Democratic PrimaryBradley Gore Other Undecided (N)January 20-23 (Latest) 41% 50% 1% 8% (280)Registered Democrat 38 53 1 9Undeclared 48 45 0 7WMUR / FOX News New Hampshire Primary Tracking Poll University of New Hampshire Survey CenterNH GOP PrimaryBauer Bush Forbes Hatch Keyes McCain DKJanuary 20-23 (Latest) 1% 37% 12% 1% 8% 38% 3%Undeclared 2 23 15 1 9 48 2Registered Republican 1 43 11 1 8 34 3Independent or Democrat 1 9 13 2 13 58 4Not so strong Republican 1 37 15 0 6 40 2Strong Republican 0 54 7 1 9 25 3Clinton - Favorable 0 31 16 2 2 47 2Neither 0 37 4 0 4 47 8Clinton - Unfavorable 1 39 12 0 10 35 3Primary-extremely interested 2 29 11 1 13 42 3Very interested 0 37 12 1 5 44 2Somewhat interested 1 52 15 0 7 19 6May vote 0 31 18 0 4 33 14Will vote unless emergency 2 36 8 0 4 44 5Will definitely vote 1 38 12 1 9 38 218 to 29 3 58 9 0 8 21 130 to 45 0 33 12 2 12 38 346 to 64 0 34 11 0 6 45 365 and over 3 42 14 0 4 34 3Male 1 34 13 1 9 40 2Female 2 41 10 1 6 36 4High school or less 0 44 13 1 12 26 3Some college 2 43 14 0 7 33 1College graduate 2 35 9 1 6 43 4Post-graduate 0 24 12 0 7 52 4Less than $25,000 6 46 16 0 7 25 0$25,000 to $49,999 0 32 20 1 11 31 5$50,000 to $74,999 1 40 10 0 11 37 0$75,000 to $99,999 0 33 7 0 7 48 4$100,000 or more 2 38 9 2 0 47 1Lived in NH 3 yrs or less 0 38 15 0 0 45 24 to 5 years 0 63 0 0 14 24 06 to 10 years 3 41 0 0 3 41 1211 to 20 years 2 29 13 3 13 39 2More than 20 years 1 39 13 0 8 37 3Northern NH 3 31 8 0 7 50 0Western NH 3 36 10 0 3 37 11Central/Lakes 0 31 15 0 12 39 3Hillsborough County 1 39 17 1 8 33 3Seacoast 1 43 5 1 9 40 2WMUR / FOX News New Hampshire Primary Tracking Poll University of New Hampshire Survey CenterLikely Republican Primary VotersStrength of CommitmentBauer Bush Forbes Hatch Keyes McCain All GOPCertain to Support 66% 71% 52% 54% 69% 71% 67%May Change Mind 34 29 48 46 31 29 33Likely Republican Primary VotersSecond ChoiceBush Forbes McCain Bradley Gore Other DKJanuary 20-23 (Latest) 30% 16% 27% 5% 5% 15% 3%First ChoiceGary Bauer 53 30 17 0 0 0 0George W. Bush 0 23 57 2 1 16 0Steve Forbes 51 0 21 0 9 19 0Orrin Hatch 0 46 0 0 0 54 0Alan Keyes 10 41 30 0 0 136John McCain 59 10 0 10 7 12 2WMUR / FOX News New Hampshire Primary Tracking Poll University of New Hampshire Survey CenterMost Important IssueLikely Republican Primary VotersHealth Soc.Economy Care Sec. Educ. Morality Taxes OtherJanuary 20-23 (Latest) 15% 14% 12% 9% 11% 21% 19%Bush supporters 21 12 11 9 12 20 15Forbes supporters 10 8 13 6 6 32 26McCain supporters 13 16 15 10 6 19 21Undeclared 18 15 14 7 9 16 21Registered Republican 13 13 11 9 13 23 18Independent or Democrat 12 14 17 4 16 21 16Not so strong Republican 18 16 13 10 6 16 22Strong Republican 13 12 7 10 16 26 16Clinton - Favorable 21 20 13 12 8 14 12Neither 7 10 21 11 8 27 16Clinton - Unfavorable 15 13 10 7 12 21 21May vote 15 7 11 26 19 11 10Will vote unless emergency 23 12 12 10 13 10 19Will definitely vote 14 14 12 8 11 23 1918 to 29 29 0 2 12 16 16 2530 to 45 20 10 7 8 10 27 1746 to 64 10 19 9 10 11 23 1865 and over 7 21 29 5 11 7 20Male 18 8 9 7 11 26 21Female 12 22 15 10 12 12 16High school or less 12 16 17 6 13 13 22Some college 17 15 10 10 13 18 16College graduate 15 11 6 11 9 27 20Post-graduate 18 12 18 4 9 22 16Less than $25,000 8 25 34 4 9 12 8$25,000 to $49,999 17 17 9 8 13 15 20$50,000 to $74,999 17 12 5 9 18 17 22$75,000 to $99,999 15 5 3 12 8 42 16$100,000 or more 24 14 7 14 3 25 13Lived in NH 3 yrs or less 20 3 14 16 7 22 184 to 5 years 16 0 0 8 21 8 486 to 10 years 3 28 5 8 17 19 1911 to 20 years 16 18 3 3 13 22 25More than 20 years 16 13 15 10 10 21 15Northern NH 24 16 14 3 6 15 23Western NH 9 14 11 14 9 13 30Central/Lakes 10 18 6 8 21 14 23Hillsborough County 13 9 10 9 10 33 16Seacoast 18 14 14 10 11 18 15WMUR / FOX News New Hampshire Primary Tracking Poll University of New Hampshire Survey CenterImportant Candidate QualitiesLikely Republican Primary VotersStands Knows Best Rep. Caresfor Complex Chance Conser. Strong Avg. RightBeliefs Issues to Win Issues Leader Amer. Exper. DKJanuary 20-23 (Latest) 38% 8% 5% 13% 17% 10% 8% 2%Bush supporters 35 7 11 15 17 7 8 1Forbes supporters 34 18 0 17 11 10 10 0McCain supporters 41 7 2 7 20 14 9 1Undeclared 37 8 1 6 21 16 10 1Registered Republican 38 8 7 15 14 8 7 2Independent or Democrat 37 9 5 5 12 21 10 1Not so strong Republican 40 8 2 10 22 9 8 1Strong Republican 35 8 9 20 13 6 7 3Clinton - Favorable 28 10 9 5 19 15 15 0Neither 26 8 0 12 24 22 8 0Clinton - Unfavorable 41 7 5 15 15 8 6 2May vote 38 7 0 7 19 10 15 4Will vote unless emergency 36 10 3 11 23 11 6 0Will definitely vote 38 8 6 13 16 10 8 218 to 29 42 3 8 11 26 4 4 030 to 45 32 5 4 15 22 13 8 146 to 64 43 12 3 9 9 11 11 165 and over 36 10 8 15 14 8 6 4Male 37 8 6 11 19 11 6 3Female 39 8 3 16 14 9 11 0High school or less 38 4 7 14 12 10 9 5Some college 41 9 5 14 15 8 8 0College graduate 39 7 4 13 21 9 7 1Post-graduate 28 14 6 10 17 16 9 0Less than $25,000 49 9 6 19 6 4 7 0$25,000 to $49,999 46 5 6 10 12 14 6 0$50,000 to $74,999 35 12 4 16 12 13 8 0$75,000 to $99,999 35 8 5 17 19 11 4 1$100,000 or more 30 5 6 7 34 8 10 0Lived in NH 3 yrs or less 29 14 4 4 34 8 7 14 to 5 years 37 8 8 32 0 16 0 06 to 10 years 30 5 0 8 11 31 8 511 to 20 years 40 8 6 11 22 6 7 0More than 20 years 39 7 5 15 13 10 9 2Northern NH 37 11 3 16 12 12 8 0Western NH 55 6 6 4 9 9 8 3Central/Lakes 37 13 2 17 15 7 6 2Hillsborough County 34 5 8 15 20 11 6 1Seacoast 37 6 5 9 18 12 12 1WMUR / FOX News New Hampshire Primary Tracking Poll University of New Hampshire Survey CenterNH Democratic Primary (Jan, 20 - 23)Bradley Gore Other UndecidedJanuary 20-23 (Latest) 41% 50% 1% 8%Registered Democrat 38 53 1 9Undeclared 48 45 0 7Strong Democrat 34 59 0 7Not so strong Democrat 39 53 2 6Lean Democrat 44 45 0 11Independent or Republican 57 32 2 9Clinton - Favorable 37 54 0 9Neither 23 66 0 11Clinton - Unfavorable 62 31 1 6Primary-extremely interested 44 44 0 12Very interested 45 47 1 7Somewhat interested 28 65 1 6May vote 43  50 0 7Will vote unless emergency 35 54 3 8Will definitely vote 42 49 0 818 to 29 50 35 4 1130 to 45 35 54 1 1146 to 64 46 48 0 665 and over 39 54 0 7Male 42 49 2 7Female 40 51 0 9High school or less 23 71 1 5Some college 33 56 1 10College graduate 50 40 0 10Post-graduate 60 33 0 7Less than $25,000 17 78 0 5$25,000 to $49,999 50 44 1 4$50,000 to $74,999 31 58 0 11$75,000 to $99,999 50 45 0 5$100,000 or more 57 41 0 2Lived in NH 3 yrs or less 54 21 4 204 to 5 years 60 34 0 66 to 10 years 29 56 0 1411 to 20 years 48 47 0 5More than 20 years 38 54 0 7Northern NH 37 53 3 8Western NH 37 42 2 18Central/Lakes 62 35 0 3Hillsborough County 39 53 0 8Seacoast 36 59 0 5WMUR / FOX News New Hampshire Primary Tracking Poll University of New Hampshire Survey CenterMost Important IssueLikely Democratic Primary VotersHealth Soc. Camp.Economy Care Sec. Finan. Educ. OtherJanuary 20-23 (Latest) 10% 33% 15% 5% 20% 17%Bradley supporters 4 36 9 11 17 23Gore supporters 12 31 20 1 22 13Undecided 18 36 18 0 17 12Registered Democrat 11 33 17 4 19 17Undeclared 8 35 10 7 22 18Strong Democrat 12 37 15 5 16 16Not so strong Democrat 6 22 20 4 23 24Lean Democrat 7 38 11 4 25 15Independent or Republican 12 29 15 7 21 16Clinton - Favorable 10 33 15 6 23 13Neither 7 39 22 0 14 18Clinton - Unfavorable 10 32 11 4 15 28May vote 4 35 16 4 19 22Will vote unless emergency 14 31 13 3 17 21Will definitely vote 9 34 15 5 21 1618 to 29 9 9 7 6 27 4130 to 45 14 23 7 5 33 1846 to 64 5 41 18 3 17 1565 and over 9 42 23 9 7 11Male 7 35 16 8 17 16Female 12 33 14 3 22 17High school or less 11 37 30 0 7 16Some college 11 25 15 2 28 18College graduate 13 37 8 4 19 19Post-graduate 3 34 7 16 26 15Less than $25,000 7 36 26 0 14 17$25,000 to $49,999 10 36 13 5 20 16$50,000 to $74,999 13 38 8 6 29 6$75,000 to $99,999 10 24 13 7 22 25$100,000 or more 0 33 14 14 24 14Lived in NH 3 yrs or less 17 24 2 13 18 264 to 5 years 23 50 0 8 0 186 to 10 years 3 32 20 0 33 1311 to 20 years 9 26 6 8 30 20More than 20 years 10 35 20 3 16 16Northern NH 7 36 13 9 22 13Western NH 8 34 18 9 19 12Central/Lakes 2 36 12 7 22 21Hillsborough County 18 32 20 3 13 13Seacoast 10 33 11 3 24 19 WMUR / FOX News New Hampshire Primary Tracking Poll University of New Hampshire Survey CenterLikely Democratic Primary VotersStrength of CommitmentBradley Gore All DEMCertain to Support 71% 73% 72%May Change Mind 29 27 28Likely Democratic Primary VotersSecond ChoiceMcCain Bradley Gore Other DKJanuary 20-23 (Latest) 29% 28% 23% 13% 7%First ChoiceBill Bradley 36 0 51 11 2Al Gore 26 57 0 14 2WMUR / FOX News New Hampshire Primary Tracking Poll University of New Hampshire Survey CenterImportant Candidate QualitiesLikely Democratic Primary VotersNot Best StandsStrong New Typical Right Chance For LoyalLeader Ideas Pol. Exper. to Win Beliefs Dem. DKJanuary 20-23 (Latest) 19% 11% 7% 15% 2% 39% 2% 4%Bradley supporters 14 14 15 3 2 51 0 0Gore supporters 22 9 2 28 1 29 4 4Undecided 28 5 2 3 0 41 0 22Registered Democrat 20 14 6 17 2 33 3 5Undeclared 17 3 11 12 2 54 0 2Strong Democrat 17 13 5 22 3 30 2 8Not so strong Democrat 20 11 7 12 3 45 2 0Lean Democrat 23 7 10 9 0 48 2 0Independent or Republican 19 12 10 9 0 46 0 4Clinton - Favorable 19 13 8 20 1 33 2 4Neither 14 4 6 8 0 52 4 12Clinton - Unfavorable 22 8 8 4 2 53 0 3May vote 17 3 24 7 0 41 0 7Will vote unless emergency 18 8 7 16 0 50 0 1Will definitely vote 20 12 7 16 2 37 2 518 to 29 18 28 9 6 0 39 0 030 to 45 24 4 8 15 0 43 2 546 to 64 18 14 8 14 1 41 2 165 and over 15 10 6 23 4 33 2 7Male 18 15 7 14 3 33 3 8Female 20 8 8 16 1 43 1 2High school or less 15 12 13 14 2 39 2 3Some college 27 7 5 14 0 42 2 4College graduate 26 11 6 17 1 38 1 0Post-graduate 5 13 9 16 5 41 3 8Less than $25,000 13 6 1 17 3 55 0 4$25,000 to $49,999 16 14 11 13 2 40 3 0$50,000 to $74,999 33 5 11 16 5 22 3 5$75,000 to $99,999 20 9 4 17 0 43 4 4$100,000 or more 9 19 9 25 0 38 0 0Lived in NH 3 yrs or less 29 12 0 17 0 42 0 04 to 5 years 14 15 4 24 0 43 0 06 to 10 years 27 14 4 14 0 35 0 711 to 20 years 14 8 9 22 2 40 2 2More than 20 years 19 10 9 13 2 40 2 4Northern NH 16 18 13 14 0 39 0 0Western NH 15 3 5 20 3 48 0 7Central/Lakes 15 19 8 8 4 43 0 3Hillsborough County 21 9 13 16 2 32 2 4Seacoast 21 10 3 17 1 40 4 4WMUR / FOX News New Hampshire Primary Tracking Poll University of New Hampshire Survey CenterMost Important IssueAll Likely Primary VotersHealth Soc. Camp. For. GunEconomyCare Sec. Finan. Educ. MoralityPolicy Taxes ControlAbortionJanuary 20-23 (Latest) 13% 22% 13% 4% 13% 8% 4% 14% 5% 4%Registered Democrat 11 33 17 4 19 2 3 4 3 6Undeclared 14 23 12 5 12 9 3 11 5 5Registered Republican 13 13 11 4 9 13 5 23 7 3Certain to support 11 22 12 6 12 10 5 12 6 4May change mind 15 21 14 2 17 5 2 18 3 4Clinton - Favorable 13 30 15 6 20 3 3 6 3 3Neither 7 24 21 4 12 5 3 19 3 3Clinton - Unfavorable 14 16 10 4 9 12 4 18 7 6Primary-extremely interested 13 24 8 6 12 11 3 16 3 3Very interested 10 22 16 5 13 8 4 12 5 6Somewhat interested 22 18 14 1 16 4 2 14 8 2May vote 10 21 13 2 23 15 2 10 2 3Will vote unless emergency 19 21 12 4 13 8 3 7 8 5Will definitely vote 12 22 13 5 13 8 4 15 4 418 to 29 22 3 4 6 17 15 2 13 11 730 to 45 18 14 7 3 17 7 2 19 7 546 to 64 8 30 13 4 13 8 5 14 2 465 and over 8 30 26 7 6 6 4 5 5 3Male 14 16 11 6 10 8 4 19 8 2Female 12 27 15 3 16 8 3 8 2 6High school or less 12 24 22 1 7 9 2 10 9 4Some college 15 20 12 2 18 10 3 12 4 3College graduate 14 21 7 4 14 6 4 18 4 6Post-graduate 11 22 13 12 14 7 4 12 2 2Less than $25,000 7 31 30 0 9 4 0 7 6 5$25,000 to $49,999 14 25 11 5 13 8 4 10 6 3

WMUR / FOX News Tracking Poll 1/24/2000

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WMUR / FOX News Tracking Poll 1/24/2000

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