John Kerry continues to narrowly lead George Bush in New Hampshire. Craig Benson‚Äôs lead over Democratic challenger John Lynch is also relatively unchanged in the race for New Hampshire Governor.  Election: 200

Survey Center, UNH

English

University of New Hampshire

 1 
 WMUR / UNH New Hampshire Tracking Poll 
 
By: Andrew E. Smith, Ph.D. (603) 862-2226 October 30, 2004 
 Dennis M. Junius, M.A.           7:30 P.M. 
UNH Survey Center www.unh.edu/survey-center                
 
LITTLE CHANGE IN RACE FOR PRESIDENT IN NH 
 
 Durham, NH – John Kerry continues to narrowly lead George Bush in New Hampshire.  Craig Benson’s lead over 
Democratic challenger John Lynch is also relatively unchanged in the race for New Hampshire Governor. 
 
 These findings are based on the 2004 WMUR / UNH New Hampshire Tracking Poll, conducted by the University of 
New Hampshire Survey Center.  This survey is sponsored by WMUR-TV Manchester and the University of New Hampshire.* 
Eight hundred fifty (850) likely New Hampshire voters were interviewed between October 27 and October 29, 2004.  The 
potential sampling error for the survey is ±3.4%.  (For more information about the NH Election Tracking Poll, go to 
www.unh.edu/survey-center/track04.html) 
 
Presidential Election 
 The race between John Kerry and George Bush in New Hampshire is still very close.  In the latest WMUR / UNH 
New Hampshire Tracking Poll, 50 percent of likely voters say they will vote for Kerry, 46 percent will vote for Bush, 1 
percent will vote for Ralph Nader or some other candidate, and 3 percent remain undecided.  The most important issues to 
voters in the presidential election continue to be the war in Iraq (25%), the war on terrorism (20%), and jobs and the 
economy (18%). 
 Kerry runs strongest among Democrats and in the North Country, the Connecticut Valley, and in the vote-rich 
Seacoast.  Bush does best among Republicans and in the Manchester area.  Kerry leads among swing voters by 54 percent to 
34 percent. 
 
Gubernatorial Election 
 In the race for New Hampshire Governor, incumbent Republican Craig Benson leads over John Lynch 47 percent to 
44 percent with 1 percent favoring some other candidate, and 8 percent still undecided.  Benson has consistently been below 
50 percent in the WMUR / UNH tracking poll.  This is an indication that his reelection is in jeopardy as undecided voters 
typically break toward the challenger.  The most important issues in the race for Governor are taxes (29%), education 
funding (17%), jobs and the economy (14%), and ethics in government (12%). 
 Benson and Lynch do well among their partisans and tied among swing voters.  Benson does best in Massachusetts 
border towns and in Manchester.  Lynch’s strongest support comes from voters in the Connecticut Valley, the North Country, 
and in the Seacoast. 
 
U.S. Senate 
 Incumbent Republican Senator Judd Gregg still holds a commanding lead over Democratic challenger “Granny D” 
Haddock.  Sixty-three percent of likely voters prefer Gregg, 23 percent prefer Granny D, 1 percent favor some other 
candidate and 13 percent are still undecided.  Gregg has maintained a wide lead over Granny D throughout the race. 
 
U.S. Congress 
 The race for U.S. Representative from New Hampshire’s First Congressional district has narrowed slightly.  
Currently, 57 percent favor incumbent Republican Jeb Bradley, 31 percent favor Democrat Justin Nadeau, 1 percent favor 
some other candidate, and 12 percent are undecided.  Bradley held a 60 percent to 26 percent lead in yesterday’s WMUR / 
UNH tracking poll. 
 In the Second District, incumbent Republican Charlie Bass leads Democrat Paul Hodes 58 percent to 32 percent, 
with 1 percent preferring some other candidate and 9 percent undecided. 
                                               
* We ask that this copyrighted information be referred to as the WMUR / UNH New Hampshire Tracking Poll, sponsored by WMUR-TV and the University of 
New Hampshire. 
 2 
 2004 Presidential Election - Bush vs. Kerry vs. Nader 
 
"Now, suppose the 2004 presidential election were being held TODAY.  If you had to choose between George W. Bush, the 
Republican ... John Kerry, the Democrat ... or Ralph Nader, the Independent, who would you vote for?"  (ROTATE 
CANDIDATES) 
 
 George W. John Other/ 
 Bush Kerry Nader Undecided (N=)  
October 25-27 46% 50% 1% 3% 746 
October 26-28  47% 49% 1% 3% 823 
October 27-29 (Latest) 46% 50% 1% 3% 834 
 
Democrat 6 92 1 1 344 
Independent 33 50 6 10 125 
Republican 91 9 0 0 349 
 
Registered Democrat 11 88 0 0 225 
Undeclared 32 59 4 6 288 
Registered Republican 89 11 0 0 274 
Not registered 49 44 2 6 44 
 
Core GOP 96 3 1 0 303 
Swing Voter 34 54 4 9 240 
Core Dem. 3 96 0 1 291 
 
Male 49 46 2 3 402 
Female 43 54 1 3 432 
 
18 to 34 41 55 2 2 140 
35 to 49 52 43 2 3 321 
50 to 64 43 54 1 2 250 
65 and over 39 57 0 4 109 
 
North Country 26 70 1 3 75 
Central / Lakes 53 41 1 4 141 
Connecticut Valley 36 62 1 1 113 
Mass Border 50 44 2 4 223 
Seacoast 37 63 0 0 135 
Manchester Area 60 36 2 3 146 
 
Approve Bush as Pres. 89 7 2 2 405 
Neither 39 30 0 30 18 
Disapprove of Bush 3 94 1 2 405 
 
1st Cong. District 48 50 1 1 432 
2nd Cong. District 44 50 2 4 401 
 
1st E.C. District 38 59 2 1 178 
2nd E.C. District 44 51 0 5 162 
3rd E.C. District 44 56 0 0 181 
4th E.C. District 55 39 3 2 158 
5th E.C. District 49 43 1 7 147 
 3 
 Benson vs. Lynch 
 
"Now, suppose the 2004 gubernatorial election was being held today and the candidates were Craig Benson, the Republican 
and John Lynch, the Democrat.  Who would you vote for ... Craig Benson or John Lynch?"  (ROTATE CANDIDATES) 
 
 Craig John 
 Benson Lynch Other Undecided (N=) 
October 25-27 47% 44% 1% 9% 747 
October 26-28  47% 42% 1% 9% 816 
October 27-29 (Latest) 47% 44% 1% 8% 825 
 
Democrat 18 73 1 8 341 
Independent 38 44 5 12 123 
Republican 78 15 1 6 349 
 
Registered Democrat 14 79 1 6 221 
Undeclared 40 47 3 10 286 
Registered Republican 79 15 1 4 273 
Not registered 46 28 0 26 43 
 
Core GOP 86 9 0 5 303 
Swing Voter 40 43 3 14 234 
Core Dem. 11 82 1 6 288 
 
Male 51 41 2 7 394 
Female 43 47 1 9 431 
 
18 to 34 44 41 1 13 138 
35 to 49 51 38 1 10 317 
50 to 64 43 52 2 3 248 
65 and over 44 49 0 6 109 
 
North Country 34 53 0 13 73 
Central / Lakes 46 45 2 6 140 
Connecticut Valley 35 56 1 8 112 
Mass Border 53 36 2 8 220 
Seacoast 40 52 1 6 132 
Manchester Area 58 33 1 8 147 
 
Approve Bush as Pres. 76 15 2 7 403 
Neither 19 63 0 18 20 
Disapprove of Bush 18 72 1 8 401 
 
1st Cong. District 48 42 1 9 428 
2nd Cong. District 45 46 2 7 397 
 
1st E.C. District 39 50 1 10 177 
2nd E.C. District 48 46 2 5 160 
3rd E.C. District 46 46 1 7 177 
4th E.C. District 56 33 1 10 158 
5th E.C. District 47 44 2 7 146 
 
 
 4 
 Senatorial Race: Gregg vs. Haddock 
 
"Suppose the election for U.S. Senate were being held TODAY and the candidates were Judd Gregg, the Republican and 
Doris "Granny D" Haddock, the Democrat.  Who would you vote for ... Judd Gregg or "Granny D" Haddock?"  ROTATE 
CANDIDATES 
 
 Judd Doris 
 Gregg Haddock Other Undecided (N=)  
October 25-27 62% 23% 1% 13% 738 
October 26-28  63% 22% 1% 14% 815 
October 27-29 (Latest) 63% 23% 1% 13% 820 
 
Democrat 37 45 2 16 334 
Independent 59 17 1 23 124 
Republican 90 3 0 7 350 
 
Registered Democrat 39 50 1 10 217 
Undeclared 56 23 2 20 284 
Registered Republican 94 3 0 3 273 
Not registered 43 16 0 41 42 
 
Core GOP 95 1 0 4 303 
Swing Voter 64 13 0 23 236 
Core Dem. 28 55 2 14 280 
 
Male 69 19 1 12 392 
Female 58 27 1 14 428 
 
18 to 34 52 28 1 20 136 
35 to 49 68 18 1 14 316 
50 to 64 62 27 1 10 246 
65 and over 67 25 0 8 110 
 
North Country 56 24 3 17 76 
Central / Lakes 71 22 0 7 138 
Connecticut Valley 56 35 0 10 113 
Mass Border 63 19 2 16 214 
Seacoast 48 29 1 21 133 
Manchester Area 79 15 0 6 146 
 
Approve Bush as Pres. 86 5 0 8 405 
Neither 62 5 0 33 20 
Disapprove of Bush 40 42 2 16 394 
 
1st Cong. District 65 22 1 12 428 
2nd Cong. District 61 24 1 14 391 
 
1st E.C. District 58 28 1 13 178 
2nd E.C. District 68 23 0 9 160 
3rd E.C. District 56 23 2 18 178 
4th E.C. District 72 15 1 11 155 
5th E.C. District 64 24 0 12 140 
 
 
 5 
 1st Congressional District: Bradley vs. Nadeau 
 
"Suppose the election for U.S. Congress were being held TODAY and the candidates in your district were Jeb Bradley, the 
Republican and Justin Nadeau (NED – O), the Democrat.  Who would you vote for ... Jeb Bradley or Justin Nadeau?"  
ROTATE CANDIDATES 
 
 Jeb Justin 
 Bradley Nadeau Other Undecided (N=)  
October 25-27 60% 26% 0% 14% 383 
October 26-28  60% 26% 0% 14% 399 
October 27-29 (Latest) 57% 31% 1% 12% 417 
 
Democrat 18 65 1 16 166 
Independent 54 21 3 21 59 
Republican 92 3 0 5 188 
 
Registered Democrat 19 67 0 14 109 
Undeclared 49 31 2 17 139 
Registered Republican 94 5 0 1 148 
Not registered 48 19 0 33 22 
 
Core GOP 98 0 0 2 160 
Swing Voter 59 17 2 23 118 
Core Dem. 9 77 1 13 139 
 
Male 62 25 1 13 186 
Female 54 35 0 11 231 
 
18 to 34 55 28 0 17 75 
35 to 49 65 23 1 12 162 
50 to 64 53 37 2 8 127 
65 and over 46 43 0 11 49 
 
REGION OF STATE 
Northern NH 34 57 0 9 42 
Central/Lakes 76 21 0 3 49 
Hillsborough County 72 22 0 6 89 
Seacoast 52 31 1 16 238 
 
Approve Bush as Pres. 86 4 1 9 216 
Neither 38 24 0 38 7 
Disapprove of Bush 25 61 1 14 193 
 6 
 2nd Congressional District: Bass vs. Hodes 
 
"Suppose the election for U.S. Congress were being held TODAY and the candidates in your district were Charlie Bass, the 
Republican and Paul Hodes, the Democrat.  Who would you vote for ... Charlie Bass or Paul Hodes?"   ROTATE 
CANDIDATES 
 
  Charlie  Paul 
 Bass Hodes Other Undecided (N=)  
October 25-27 57% 30% 2% 12% 346 
October 26-28  57% 31% 1% 11% 412 
October 27-29 (Latest) 58% 32% 1% 9% 400 
 
Democrat 27 61 0 11 171 
Independent 59 26 0 15 63 
Republican 91 3 1 6 160 
 
Registered Democrat 27 66 0 7 109 
Undeclared 51 34 1 14 144 
Registered Republican 93 3 1 3 125 
Not registered 59 21 0 20 20 
 
Core GOP 95 0 1 3 142 
Swing Voter 60 19 1 20 115 
Core Dem. 19 74 0 7 143 
 
Male 66 26 1 7 204 
Female 50 38 0 12 196 
 
18 to 34 45 36 0 19 64 
35 to 49 61 25 1 12 151 
50 to 64 57 39 0 4 115 
65 and over 62 36 1 2 62 
 
REGION OF STATE 
Northern NH 56 35 0 9 69 
Western NH 46 44 0 11 75 
Central/Lakes 60 35 0 5 85 
Hillsborough County 61 26 1 12 146 
Seacoast 74 20 0 6 24 
 
Approve Bush as Pres. 86 6 1 7 186 
Neither 59 17 0 24 11 
Disapprove of Bush 32 57 0 11 203 
 7 
 New Hampshire House Races: Democrat vs. Republican 
 
"Please think about the upcoming election for your representative to the New Hampshire House of Representatives.  As of 
today ... do you plan to vote for the Democratic or Republican candidate for the New Hampshire House of Representatives ... 
or do you plan to skip the election for New Hampshire House of Representatives this time?"  ROTATE PARTIES 
 
 Republican Democrat Other Undecided (N=)  
October 25-27 41% 40% 3% 15% 686 
October 26-28  41% 39% 3% 17% 766 
October 27-29 (Latest) 41% 40% 1% 17% 771 
 
Democrat 5 81 1 14 324 
Independent 23 31 5 40 101 
Republican 82 4 1 14 336 
 
Registered Democrat 2 86 1 10 210 
Undeclared 26 41 2 31 253 
Registered Republican 86 5 0 9 271 
Not registered 30 41 2 27 34 
 
Core GOP 91 0 0 9 294 
Swing Voter 23 31 4 42 199 
Core Dem. 2 89 0 9 277 
 
Male 45 33 2 20 369 
Female 37 47 1 15 401 
 
18 to 34 33 44 0 22 121 
35 to 49 45 35 1 18 292 
50 to 64 39 44 1 16 236 
65 and over 41 42 4 13 109 
 
North Country 30 51 0 19 70 
Central / Lakes 46 38 1 15 134 
Connecticut Valley 31 52 1 16 107 
Mass Border 47 31 3 19 197 
Seacoast 32 53 0 14 121 
Manchester Area 48 31 1 20 142 
 
Approve Bush as Pres. 74 7 2 18 375 
Neither 15 56 0 28 16 
Disapprove of Bush 9 73 1 17 376 
 
1st Cong. District 44 42 1 14 393 
2nd Cong. District 38 39 2 21 377 
 
1st E.C. District 34 46 0 20 167 
2nd E.C. District 40 40 1 19 155 
3rd E.C. District 42 46 0 12 163 
4th E.C. District 47 36 1 16 146 
5th E.C. District 44 31 5 20 134 
 8 
 New Hampshire Senate Races: Democrat vs. Republican 
 
"Please think about the upcoming election for your representative to the New Hampshire Senate.  As of today ... do you plan 
to vote for the Democratic or Republican candidate for the New Hampshire Senate ... or do you plan to skip the election for 
New Hampshire Senate this time?"  ROTATE PARTIES 
 
 Republican Democrat Other Undecided (N=)  
October 25-27 45% 40% 3% 12% 691 
October 26-28  44% 40% 2% 14% 762 
October 27-29 (Latest) 42% 42% 1% 15% 767 
 
Democrat 5 83 0 12 322 
Independent 23 36 4 37 104 
Republican 85 5 0 10 332 
 
Registered Democrat 5 88 0 6 215 
Undeclared 29 41 2 27 251 
Registered Republican 86 5 0 9 265 
Not registered 32 49 0 20 34 
 
Core GOP 92 2 0 6 289 
Swing Voter 27 32 3 38 200 
Core Dem. 2 92 0 6 278 
 
Male 49 33 1 17 365 
Female 36 51 1 12 402 
 
18 to 34 35 42 0 23 121 
35 to 49 45 38 1 16 290 
50 to 64 44 45 0 11 237 
65 and over 37 49 2 12 108 
 
North Country 28 52 2 18 70 
Central / Lakes 42 42 0 16 132 
Connecticut Valley 30 50 1 19 110 
Mass Border 48 38 2 12 201 
Seacoast 33 53 0 13 116 
Manchester Area 58 30 0 13 138 
 
Approve Bush as Pres. 76 10 1 13 367 
Neither 15 52 0 33 16 
Disapprove of Bush 11 74 1 15 381 
 
1st Cong. District 45 42 1 12 389 
2nd Cong. District 39 43 1 17 378 
 
1st E.C. District 34 45 1 20 167 
2nd E.C. District 39 43 0 18 154 
3rd E.C. District 42 47 0 11 157 
4th E.C. District 53 36 0 11 145 
5th E.C. District 44 39 3 14 138 
 9 
 Most Important Issue in Vote for President 
 
"Of the following list, which one of these will be the single most important issue in your vote for president this year ... the 
U.S. campaign against terrorism ... the war in Iraq ... the economy and jobs ... education ... health care ... Medicare and 
prescription drugs ... Social Security ... gas and oil prices ... or something else?"  ROTATE RESPONSES 
 
     Health Medicare/ Social  All Don’t 
 Jobs Iraq Terror Educ. Care Rx Drugs Security Other Equal Know (N=) 
October 25-27 22% 22% 21% 3% 8% 2% 2% 11% 5% 3% 758 
October 26-28  20% 24% 19% 3% 9% 2% 2% 12% 6% 2% 838 
October 27-29 (Latest) 18% 25% 20% 4% 9% 3% 3% 11% 6% 1% 846 
 
Democrat 25 34 3 5 12 4 2 8 6 1 349 
Independent 18 22 14 3 12 0 8 14 7 1 127 
Republican 12 17 40 3 5 2 2 13 5 1 350 
 
Registered Democrat 23 34 3 5 10 4 4 10 8 0 227 
Undeclared 21 27 15 5 12 2 4 10 4 2 292 
Registered Republican 13 13 42 3 4 2 2 12 6 3 274 
Not registered 10 34 8 0 10 3 1 28 5 0 48 
 
Core GOP 11 14 43 2 5 2 2 15 5 1 303 
Swing Voter 21 29 12 4 8 2 5 11 6 2 248 
Core Dem. 23 32 3 5 13 5 3 8 7 1 294 
 
Bush Voter 13 17 41 2 4 1 2 14 5 2 379 
Kerry Voter 22 34 3 5 13 4 4 8 6 1 416 
 
Male 18 22 23 2 8 3 4 13 6 1 403 
Female 18 27 17 5 9 3 2 10 6 2 443 
 
18 to 34 19 29 15 5 8 0 3 14 7 2 140 
35 to 49 20 22 23 5 8 1 2 14 5 1 324 
50 to 64 18 28 23 2 8 3 3 8 6 1 252 
65 and over 15 21 14 2 10 12 7 10 7 2 116 
 
North Country 15 27 16 3 14 6 1 9 8 0 77 
Central / Lakes 21 20 18 2 7 3 2 17 9 1 141 
Connecticut Valley 20 35 11 5 8 3 3 10 3 2 115 
Mass Border 19 27 23 3 7 2 4 8 5 2 227 
Seacoast 19 24 17 3 10 4 2 11 8 3 137 
Manchester Area 15 16 29 6 9 2 5 15 3 0 149 
 
Approve Bush as Pres. 13 17 37 2 5 2 2 15 6 1 409 
Neither 15 21 12 14 6 5 13 7 7 0 20 
Disapprove of Bush 23 32 4 5 12 4 4 8 6 1 411 
 
1st Cong. District 19 20 20 4 7 3 4 15 6 1 439 
2nd Cong. District 17 30 19 3 10 3 2 8 6 2 407 
 
1st E.C. District 17 27 14 4 10 5 3 12 6 0 182 
2nd E.C. District 22 25 20 2 10 2 3 9 5 1  
3rd E.C. District 21 21 20 3 7 3 2 14 7 2 186 
4th E.C. District 15 20 28 5 6 2 7 11 5 1 159 
5th E.C. District 17 30 20 4 10 1 2 9 5 2 150 
 
 10 
Most Important Issue in Vote for Governor 
"Of the following list, which one of these will be the single most important issue in your vote for New Hampshire governor 
this year ... education funding ... taxes ... ethics in government ... the cost of health insurance ... cuts in public services ...  
jobs and the economy ... health care ... or something else?"  ROTATE RESPONSES 
 
  
 Educ.  Ethics Cost of Cuts in Jobs/ Health  All 
 Funding Taxes in Govt. Hlth Ins. Services Econ. Care Other Equal DK (N=) 
October 25-27 18% 28% 13% 7% 4% 15% 7% 3% 2% 3% 756 
October 26-28  17% 29% 12% 7% 4% 13% 8% 4% 3% 3% 836 
October 27-29 (Latest) 17% 29% 12% 7% 4% 14% 8% 4% 3% 2% 847 
 
Democrat 22 16 13 8 8 16 10 5 2 2 349 
Independent 21 30 12 8 0 11 8 3 5 2 128 
Republican 11 42 10 6 2 14 6 3 2 2 350 
 
Registered Democrat 19 14 17 5 8 17 9 4 4 3 227 
Undeclared 20 28 12 8 3 13 10 4 1 1 294 
Registered Republican 13 43 7 6 3 14 5 4 3 3 273 
Not registered 11 22 14 15 2 12 11 4 3 7 48 
 
Core GOP 11 43 8 6 2 15 6 4 3 2 303 
Swing Voter 17 29 15 8 3 12 8 3 3 2 249 
Core Dem. 24 13 13 7 8 16 10 5 2 2 294 
 
Benson Voter 12 44 4 7 1 16 7 4 2 2 382 
Lynch Voter 25 14 21 6 7 12 9 4 2 1 364 
 
Male 16 34 10 8 4 12 7 4 3 3 405 
Female 18 24 13 6 5 17 9 4 3 2 442 
 
18 to 34 16 25 10 8 5 19 4 6 2 5 140 
35 to 49 20 34 9 5 3 15 7 4 2 1 324 
50 to 64 15 28 17 7 5 15 8 2 3 1 252 
65 and over 17 18 10 13 7 7 18 5 3 3 116 
 
North Country 22 10 12 11 8 16 13 2 3 2 77 
Central / Lakes 14 29 16 4 4 15 6 7 4 0 141 
Connecticut Valley 22 21 10 8 4 18 9 3 2 2 115 
Mass Border 15 37 8 7 3 15 6 3 4 2 228 
Seacoast 22 26 14 6 2 9 10 6 1 5 137 
Manchester Area 12 33 12 9 5 14 7 3 2 2 149 
 
Approve Bush as Pres. 12 43 9 6 2 14 5 4 3 3 410 
Neither 36 13 17 8 0 9 7 0 7 3 20 
Disapprove of Bush 21 16 14 8 7 16 10 4 2 1 410 
 
1st Cong. District 16 29 12 8 4 14 7 5 2 3 440 
2nd Cong. District 19 28 11 6 4 15 8 3 4 1 407 
 
1st E.C. District 21 13 11 10 7 15 11 5 3 2 182 
2nd E.C. District 14 30 15 4 3 17 9 4 2 2 162 
3rd E.C. District 23 28 9 6 2 15 7 5 2 4 186 
4th E.C. District 10 39 12 8 3 16 4 2 4 2 160 
5th E.C. District 16 34 12 5 7 9 8 4 2 2 150 
 


WMUR / UNH New Hampshire Tracking Poll 10/30/2004

UNH Scholars' Repository

 1  WMUR / UNH New Hampshire Tracking Poll  By: Andrew E. Smith, Ph.D. (603) 862-2226 October 30, 2004  Dennis M. Junius, M.A.           7:30 P.M. UNH Survey Center www.unh.edu/survey-center                 LITTLE CHANGE IN RACE FOR PRESIDENT IN NH   Durham, NH – John Kerry continues to narrowly lead George Bush in New Hampshire.  Craig Benson’s lead over Democratic challenger John Lynch is also relatively unchanged in the race for New Hampshire Governor.   These findings are based on the 2004 WMUR / UNH New Hampshire Tracking Poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center.  This survey is sponsored by WMUR-TV Manchester and the University of New Hampshire.* Eight hundred fifty (850) likely New Hampshire voters were interviewed between October 27 and October 29, 2004.  The potential sampling error for the survey is ±3.4%.  (For more information about the NH Election Tracking Poll, go to www.unh.edu/survey-center/track04.html)  Presidential Election  The race between John Kerry and George Bush in New Hampshire is still very close.  In the latest WMUR / UNH New Hampshire Tracking Poll, 50 percent of likely voters say they will vote for Kerry, 46 percent will vote for Bush, 1 percent will vote for Ralph Nader or some other candidate, and 3 percent remain undecided.  The most important issues to voters in the presidential election continue to be the war in Iraq (25%), the war on terrorism (20%), and jobs and the economy (18%).  Kerry runs strongest among Democrats and in the North Country, the Connecticut Valley, and in the vote-rich Seacoast.  Bush does best among Republicans and in the Manchester area.  Kerry leads among swing voters by 54 percent to 34 percent.  Gubernatorial Election  In the race for New Hampshire Governor, incumbent Republican Craig Benson leads over John Lynch 47 percent to 44 percent with 1 percent favoring some other candidate, and 8 percent still undecided.  Benson has consistently been below 50 percent in the WMUR / UNH tracking poll.  This is an indication that his reelection is in jeopardy as undecided voters typically break toward the challenger.  The most important issues in the race for Governor are taxes (29%), education funding (17%), jobs and the economy (14%), and ethics in government (12%).  Benson and Lynch do well among their partisans and tied among swing voters.  Benson does best in Massachusetts border towns and in Manchester.  Lynch’s strongest support comes from voters in the Connecticut Valley, the North Country, and in the Seacoast.  U.S. Senate  Incumbent Republican Senator Judd Gregg still holds a commanding lead over Democratic challenger “Granny D” Haddock.  Sixty-three percent of likely voters prefer Gregg, 23 percent prefer Granny D, 1 percent favor some other candidate and 13 percent are still undecided.  Gregg has maintained a wide lead over Granny D throughout the race.  U.S. Congress  The race for U.S. Representative from New Hampshire’s First Congressional district has narrowed slightly.  Currently, 57 percent favor incumbent Republican Jeb Bradley, 31 percent favor Democrat Justin Nadeau, 1 percent favor some other candidate, and 12 percent are undecided.  Bradley held a 60 percent to 26 percent lead in yesterday’s WMUR / UNH tracking poll.  In the Second District, incumbent Republican Charlie Bass leads Democrat Paul Hodes 58 percent to 32 percent, with 1 percent preferring some other candidate and 9 percent undecided.                                                * We ask that this copyrighted information be referred to as the WMUR / UNH New Hampshire Tracking Poll, sponsored by WMUR-TV and the University of New Hampshire.  2  2004 Presidential Election - Bush vs. Kerry vs. Nader  "Now, suppose the 2004 presidential election were being held TODAY.  If you had to choose between George W. Bush, the Republican ... John Kerry, the Democrat ... or Ralph Nader, the Independent, who would you vote for?"  (ROTATE CANDIDATES)   George W. John Other/  Bush Kerry Nader Undecided (N=)  October 25-27 46% 50% 1% 3% 746 October 26-28  47% 49% 1% 3% 823 October 27-29 (Latest) 46% 50% 1% 3% 834  Democrat 6 92 1 1 344 Independent 33 50 6 10 125 Republican 91 9 0 0 349  Registered Democrat 11 88 0 0 225 Undeclared 32 59 4 6 288 Registered Republican 89 11 0 0 274 Not registered 49 44 2 6 44  Core GOP 96 3 1 0 303 Swing Voter 34 54 4 9 240 Core Dem. 3 96 0 1 291  Male 49 46 2 3 402 Female 43 54 1 3 432  18 to 34 41 55 2 2 140 35 to 49 52 43 2 3 321 50 to 64 43 54 1 2 250 65 and over 39 57 0 4 109  North Country 26 70 1 3 75 Central / Lakes 53 41 1 4 141 Connecticut Valley 36 62 1 1 113 Mass Border 50 44 2 4 223 Seacoast 37 63 0 0 135 Manchester Area 60 36 2 3 146  Approve Bush as Pres. 89 7 2 2 405 Neither 39 30 0 30 18 Disapprove of Bush 3 94 1 2 405  1st Cong. District 48 50 1 1 432 2nd Cong. District 44 50 2 4 401  1st E.C. District 38 59 2 1 178 2nd E.C. District 44 51 0 5 162 3rd E.C. District 44 56 0 0 181 4th E.C. District 55 39 3 2 158 5th E.C. District 49 43 1 7 147  3  Benson vs. Lynch  "Now, suppose the 2004 gubernatorial election was being held today and the candidates were Craig Benson, the Republican and John Lynch, the Democrat.  Who would you vote for ... Craig Benson or John Lynch?"  (ROTATE CANDIDATES)   Craig John  Benson Lynch Other Undecided (N=) October 25-27 47% 44% 1% 9% 747 October 26-28  47% 42% 1% 9% 816 October 27-29 (Latest) 47% 44% 1% 8% 825  Democrat 18 73 1 8 341 Independent 38 44 5 12 123 Republican 78 15 1 6 349  Registered Democrat 14 79 1 6 221 Undeclared 40 47 3 10 286 Registered Republican 79 15 1 4 273 Not registered 46 28 0 26 43  Core GOP 86 9 0 5 303 Swing Voter 40 43 3 14 234 Core Dem. 11 82 1 6 288  Male 51 41 2 7 394 Female 43 47 1 9 431  18 to 34 44 41 1 13 138 35 to 49 51 38 1 10 317 50 to 64 43 52 2 3 248 65 and over 44 49 0 6 109  North Country 34 53 0 13 73 Central / Lakes 46 45 2 6 140 Connecticut Valley 35 56 1 8 112 Mass Border 53 36 2 8 220 Seacoast 40 52 1 6 132 Manchester Area 58 33 1 8 147  Approve Bush as Pres. 76 15 2 7 403 Neither 19 63 0 18 20 Disapprove of Bush 18 72 1 8 401  1st Cong. District 48 42 1 9 428 2nd Cong. District 45 46 2 7 397  1st E.C. District 39 50 1 10 177 2nd E.C. District 48 46 2 5 160 3rd E.C. District 46 46 1 7 177 4th E.C. District 56 33 1 10 158 5th E.C. District 47 44 2 7 146    4  Senatorial Race: Gregg vs. Haddock  "Suppose the election for U.S. Senate were being held TODAY and the candidates were Judd Gregg, the Republican and Doris "Granny D" Haddock, the Democrat.  Who would you vote for ... Judd Gregg or "Granny D" Haddock?"  ROTATE CANDIDATES   Judd Doris  Gregg Haddock Other Undecided (N=)  October 25-27 62% 23% 1% 13% 738 October 26-28  63% 22% 1% 14% 815 October 27-29 (Latest) 63% 23% 1% 13% 820  Democrat 37 45 2 16 334 Independent 59 17 1 23 124 Republican 90 3 0 7 350  Registered Democrat 39 50 1 10 217 Undeclared 56 23 2 20 284 Registered Republican 94 3 0 3 273 Not registered 43 16 0 41 42  Core GOP 95 1 0 4 303 Swing Voter 64 13 0 23 236 Core Dem. 28 55 2 14 280  Male 69 19 1 12 392 Female 58 27 1 14 428  18 to 34 52 28 1 20 136 35 to 49 68 18 1 14 316 50 to 64 62 27 1 10 246 65 and over 67 25 0 8 110  North Country 56 24 3 17 76 Central / Lakes 71 22 0 7 138 Connecticut Valley 56 35 0 10 113 Mass Border 63 19 2 16 214 Seacoast 48 29 1 21 133 Manchester Area 79 15 0 6 146  Approve Bush as Pres. 86 5 0 8 405 Neither 62 5 0 33 20 Disapprove of Bush 40 42 2 16 394  1st Cong. District 65 22 1 12 428 2nd Cong. District 61 24 1 14 391  1st E.C. District 58 28 1 13 178 2nd E.C. District 68 23 0 9 160 3rd E.C. District 56 23 2 18 178 4th E.C. District 72 15 1 11 155 5th E.C. District 64 24 0 12 140    5  1st Congressional District: Bradley vs. Nadeau  "Suppose the election for U.S. Congress were being held TODAY and the candidates in your district were Jeb Bradley, the Republican and Justin Nadeau (NED – O), the Democrat.  Who would you vote for ... Jeb Bradley or Justin Nadeau?"  ROTATE CANDIDATES   Jeb Justin  Bradley Nadeau Other Undecided (N=)  October 25-27 60% 26% 0% 14% 383 October 26-28  60% 26% 0% 14% 399 October 27-29 (Latest) 57% 31% 1% 12% 417  Democrat 18 65 1 16 166 Independent 54 21 3 21 59 Republican 92 3 0 5 188  Registered Democrat 19 67 0 14 109 Undeclared 49 31 2 17 139 Registered Republican 94 5 0 1 148 Not registered 48 19 0 33 22  Core GOP 98 0 0 2 160 Swing Voter 59 17 2 23 118 Core Dem. 9 77 1 13 139  Male 62 25 1 13 186 Female 54 35 0 11 231  18 to 34 55 28 0 17 75 35 to 49 65 23 1 12 162 50 to 64 53 37 2 8 127 65 and over 46 43 0 11 49  REGION OF STATE Northern NH 34 57 0 9 42 Central/Lakes 76 21 0 3 49 Hillsborough County 72 22 0 6 89 Seacoast 52 31 1 16 238  Approve Bush as Pres. 86 4 1 9 216 Neither 38 24 0 38 7 Disapprove of Bush 25 61 1 14 193  6  2nd Congressional District: Bass vs. Hodes  "Suppose the election for U.S. Congress were being held TODAY and the candidates in your district were Charlie Bass, the Republican and Paul Hodes, the Democrat.  Who would you vote for ... Charlie Bass or Paul Hodes?"   ROTATE CANDIDATES    Charlie  Paul  Bass Hodes Other Undecided (N=)  October 25-27 57% 30% 2% 12% 346 October 26-28  57% 31% 1% 11% 412 October 27-29 (Latest) 58% 32% 1% 9% 400  Democrat 27 61 0 11 171 Independent 59 26 0 15 63 Republican 91 3 1 6 160  Registered Democrat 27 66 0 7 109 Undeclared 51 34 1 14 144 Registered Republican 93 3 1 3 125 Not registered 59 21 0 20 20  Core GOP 95 0 1 3 142 Swing Voter 60 19 1 20 115 Core Dem. 19 74 0 7 143  Male 66 26 1 7 204 Female 50 38 0 12 196  18 to 34 45 36 0 19 64 35 to 49 61 25 1 12 151 50 to 64 57 39 0 4 115 65 and over 62 36 1 2 62  REGION OF STATE Northern NH 56 35 0 9 69 Western NH 46 44 0 11 75 Central/Lakes 60 35 0 5 85 Hillsborough County 61 26 1 12 146 Seacoast 74 20 0 6 24  Approve Bush as Pres. 86 6 1 7 186 Neither 59 17 0 24 11 Disapprove of Bush 32 57 0 11 203  7  New Hampshire House Races: Democrat vs. Republican  "Please think about the upcoming election for your representative to the New Hampshire House of Representatives.  As of today ... do you plan to vote for the Democratic or Republican candidate for the New Hampshire House of Representatives ... or do you plan to skip the election for New Hampshire House of Representatives this time?"  ROTATE PARTIES   Republican Democrat Other Undecided (N=)  October 25-27 41% 40% 3% 15% 686 October 26-28  41% 39% 3% 17% 766 October 27-29 (Latest) 41% 40% 1% 17% 771  Democrat 5 81 1 14 324 Independent 23 31 5 40 101 Republican 82 4 1 14 336  Registered Democrat 2 86 1 10 210 Undeclared 26 41 2 31 253 Registered Republican 86 5 0 9 271 Not registered 30 41 2 27 34  Core GOP 91 0 0 9 294 Swing Voter 23 31 4 42 199 Core Dem. 2 89 0 9 277  Male 45 33 2 20 369 Female 37 47 1 15 401  18 to 34 33 44 0 22 121 35 to 49 45 35 1 18 292 50 to 64 39 44 1 16 236 65 and over 41 42 4 13 109  North Country 30 51 0 19 70 Central / Lakes 46 38 1 15 134 Connecticut Valley 31 52 1 16 107 Mass Border 47 31 3 19 197 Seacoast 32 53 0 14 121 Manchester Area 48 31 1 20 142  Approve Bush as Pres. 74 7 2 18 375 Neither 15 56 0 28 16 Disapprove of Bush 9 73 1 17 376  1st Cong. District 44 42 1 14 393 2nd Cong. District 38 39 2 21 377  1st E.C. District 34 46 0 20 167 2nd E.C. District 40 40 1 19 155 3rd E.C. District 42 46 0 12 163 4th E.C. District 47 36 1 16 146 5th E.C. District 44 31 5 20 134  8  New Hampshire Senate Races: Democrat vs. Republican  "Please think about the upcoming election for your representative to the New Hampshire Senate.  As of today ... do you plan to vote for the Democratic or Republican candidate for the New Hampshire Senate ... or do you plan to skip the election for New Hampshire Senate this time?"  ROTATE PARTIES   Republican Democrat Other Undecided (N=)  October 25-27 45% 40% 3% 12% 691 October 26-28  44% 40% 2% 14% 762 October 27-29 (Latest) 42% 42% 1% 15% 767  Democrat 5 83 0 12 322 Independent 23 36 4 37 104 Republican 85 5 0 10 332  Registered Democrat 5 88 0 6 215 Undeclared 29 41 2 27 251 Registered Republican 86 5 0 9 265 Not registered 32 49 0 20 34  Core GOP 92 2 0 6 289 Swing Voter 27 32 3 38 200 Core Dem. 2 92 0 6 278  Male 49 33 1 17 365 Female 36 51 1 12 402  18 to 34 35 42 0 23 121 35 to 49 45 38 1 16 290 50 to 64 44 45 0 11 237 65 and over 37 49 2 12 108  North Country 28 52 2 18 70 Central / Lakes 42 42 0 16 132 Connecticut Valley 30 50 1 19 110 Mass Border 48 38 2 12 201 Seacoast 33 53 0 13 116 Manchester Area 58 30 0 13 138  Approve Bush as Pres. 76 10 1 13 367 Neither 15 52 0 33 16 Disapprove of Bush 11 74 1 15 381  1st Cong. District 45 42 1 12 389 2nd Cong. District 39 43 1 17 378  1st E.C. District 34 45 1 20 167 2nd E.C. District 39 43 0 18 154 3rd E.C. District 42 47 0 11 157 4th E.C. District 53 36 0 11 145 5th E.C. District 44 39 3 14 138  9  Most Important Issue in Vote for President  "Of the following list, which one of these will be the single most important issue in your vote for president this year ... the U.S. campaign against terrorism ... the war in Iraq ... the economy and jobs ... education ... health care ... Medicare and prescription drugs ... Social Security ... gas and oil prices ... or something else?"  ROTATE RESPONSES       Health Medicare/ Social  All Don’t  Jobs Iraq Terror Educ. Care Rx Drugs Security Other Equal Know (N=) October 25-27 22% 22% 21% 3% 8% 2% 2% 11% 5% 3% 758 October 26-28  20% 24% 19% 3% 9% 2% 2% 12% 6% 2% 838 October 27-29 (Latest) 18% 25% 20% 4% 9% 3% 3% 11% 6% 1% 846  Democrat 25 34 3 5 12 4 2 8 6 1 349 Independent 18 22 14 3 12 0 8 14 7 1 127 Republican 12 17 40 3 5 2 2 13 5 1 350  Registered Democrat 23 34 3 5 10 4 4 10 8 0 227 Undeclared 21 27 15 5 12 2 4 10 4 2 292 Registered Republican 13 13 42 3 4 2 2 12 6 3 274 Not registered 10 34 8 0 10 3 1 28 5 0 48  Core GOP 11 14 43 2 5 2 2 15 5 1 303 Swing Voter 21 29 12 4 8 2 5 11 6 2 248 Core Dem. 23 32 3 5 13 5 3 8 7 1 294  Bush Voter 13 17 41 2 4 1 2 14 5 2 379 Kerry Voter 22 34 3 5 13 4 4 8 6 1 416  Male 18 22 23 2 8 3 4 13 6 1 403 Female 18 27 17 5 9 3 2 10 6 2 443  18 to 34 19 29 15 5 8 0 3 14 7 2 140 35 to 49 20 22 23 5 8 1 2 14 5 1 324 50 to 64 18 28 23 2 8 3 3 8 6 1 252 65 and over 15 21 14 2 10 12 7 10 7 2 116  North Country 15 27 16 3 14 6 1 9 8 0 77 Central / Lakes 21 20 18 2 7 3 2 17 9 1 141 Connecticut Valley 20 35 11 5 8 3 3 10 3 2 115 Mass Border 19 27 23 3 7 2 4 8 5 2 227 Seacoast 19 24 17 3 10 4 2 11 8 3 137 Manchester Area 15 16 29 6 9 2 5 15 3 0 149  Approve Bush as Pres. 13 17 37 2 5 2 2 15 6 1 409 Neither 15 21 12 14 6 5 13 7 7 0 20 Disapprove of Bush 23 32 4 5 12 4 4 8 6 1 411  1st Cong. District 19 20 20 4 7 3 4 15 6 1 439 2nd Cong. District 17 30 19 3 10 3 2 8 6 2 407  1st E.C. District 17 27 14 4 10 5 3 12 6 0 182 2nd E.C. District 22 25 20 2 10 2 3 9 5 1  3rd E.C. District 21 21 20 3 7 3 2 14 7 2 186 4th E.C. District 15 20 28 5 6 2 7 11 5 1 159 5th E.C. District 17 30 20 4 10 1 2 9 5 2 150   10 Most Important Issue in Vote for Governor "Of the following list, which one of these will be the single most important issue in your vote for New Hampshire governor this year ... education funding ... taxes ... ethics in government ... the cost of health insurance ... cuts in public services ...  jobs and the economy ... health care ... or something else?"  ROTATE RESPONSES     Educ.  Ethics Cost of Cuts in Jobs/ Health  All  Funding Taxes in Govt. Hlth Ins. Services Econ. Care Other Equal DK (N=) October 25-27 18% 28% 13% 7% 4% 15% 7% 3% 2% 3% 756 October 26-28  17% 29% 12% 7% 4% 13% 8% 4% 3% 3% 836 October 27-29 (Latest) 17% 29% 12% 7% 4% 14% 8% 4% 3% 2% 847  Democrat 22 16 13 8 8 16 10 5 2 2 349 Independent 21 30 12 8 0 11 8 3 5 2 128 Republican 11 42 10 6 2 14 6 3 2 2 350  Registered Democrat 19 14 17 5 8 17 9 4 4 3 227 Undeclared 20 28 12 8 3 13 10 4 1 1 294 Registered Republican 13 43 7 6 3 14 5 4 3 3 273 Not registered 11 22 14 15 2 12 11 4 3 7 48  Core GOP 11 43 8 6 2 15 6 4 3 2 303 Swing Voter 17 29 15 8 3 12 8 3 3 2 249 Core Dem. 24 13 13 7 8 16 10 5 2 2 294  Benson Voter 12 44 4 7 1 16 7 4 2 2 382 Lynch Voter 25 14 21 6 7 12 9 4 2 1 364  Male 16 34 10 8 4 12 7 4 3 3 405 Female 18 24 13 6 5 17 9 4 3 2 442  18 to 34 16 25 10 8 5 19 4 6 2 5 140 35 to 49 20 34 9 5 3 15 7 4 2 1 324 50 to 64 15 28 17 7 5 15 8 2 3 1 252 65 and over 17 18 10 13 7 7 18 5 3 3 116  North Country 22 10 12 11 8 16 13 2 3 2 77 Central / Lakes 14 29 16 4 4 15 6 7 4 0 141 Connecticut Valley 22 21 10 8 4 18 9 3 2 2 115 Mass Border 15 37 8 7 3 15 6 3 4 2 228 Seacoast 22 26 14 6 2 9 10 6 1 5 137 Manchester Area 12 33 12 9 5 14 7 3 2 2 149  Approve Bush as Pres. 12 43 9 6 2 14 5 4 3 3 410 Neither 36 13 17 8 0 9 7 0 7 3 20 Disapprove of Bush 21 16 14 8 7 16 10 4 2 1 410  1st Cong. District 16 29 12 8 4 14 7 5 2 3 440 2nd Cong. District 19 28 11 6 4 15 8 3 4 1 407  1st E.C. District 21 13 11 10 7 15 11 5 3 2 182 2nd E.C. District 14 30 15 4 3 17 9 4 2 2 162 3rd E.C. District 23 28 9 6 2 15 7 5 2 4 186 4th E.C. District 10 39 12 8 3 16 4 2 4 2 160 5th E.C. District 16 34 12 5 7 9 8 4 2 2 150  

https://scholars.unh.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1442&amp;context=survey_center_polls

WMUR / UNH New Hampshire Tracking Poll 10/30/2004

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