Almost half of New Hampshire residents say they support the immigration bill that recently passed in the U.S. Senate. However most say that a Senator‚Äôs vote for the bill will make little difference in their vote for U.S. Senate

Survey Center, UNH

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THE WMUR GRANITE STATE POLL THE UNIVERSITY OF NEW HAMPSHIRE SURVEY CENTER   August 5, 2013  IMMIGRATION BILL NOT LIKELY TO INFLUENCE SENATE VOTE  By: Andrew E. Smith, Ph.D.  Zachary S. Azem, M.A.  UNH Survey Center  603/862-2226   www.unh.edu/survey-center  DURHAM, NH – Almost half of New Hampshire residents say they support the immigration bill that recently passed in the U.S. Senate. However most say that a Senator’s vote for the bill will make little difference in their vote for U.S. Senate.  These findings are based on the latest WMUR Granite State Poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center.  Five hundred and sixteen (516) randomly selected New Hampshire adults were interviewed by landline and cellular telephone between July 18 and July 29, 2013.  The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.3 percent.  Immigration Reform  In June, the U.S. Senate passed a comprehensive immigration bill with the support of both New Hampshire Senators, Republican Kelly Ayotte and Democrat Jeanne Shaheen. A plurality (45%) of New Hampshire residents favor the bill while 29% oppose it and 26% are either neutral or don’t know.   A June CNN poll found that 51% of adults nationwide favored the Senate bill.  There is a significant partisan split on this question as two-thirds of Democrats (65%) favor the bill while 30% of Republicans and 31% of Independents oppose it.                                                                    We ask that this copyrighted information be referred to as the Granite State Poll, sponsored by WMUR-TV, and conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. 51% 4% 45% 45% 26% 29% 30% 29% 40% 31% 27% 41% 65% 22% 12% 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%Favor Neutral/Don’t Know OpposeFavor/Oppose Senate Immigration Bill US Adults All NH Adults Republican Independent DemocratNew Hampshire residents are divided about what the focus of immigration policy should be -- 48% think border security is most important, 41% think a path to citizenship is most important and 11% don’t know.  Republicans (67%) and Independents (54%) are more likely to say border security is most important while Democrats (61%) are more likely to say that a path to citizenship is most important.  A June CNN poll showed greater support for border security than seen in New Hampshire.    Despite the attention the issue has received, a majority (54%) of New Hampshire adults say that a Senator’s vote for the immigration bill will make little difference in deciding to vote for or against that Senator, 21% say a yes vote makes them more likely to vote for the Senator, 16% say a yes vote will makes them less likely to vote for that Senator, and 9% are unsure. Democrats are more likely say they would vote for a Senator who supported the bill (38%) while Republicans and Independents are less likely to vote for that Senator.       36% 62% 2% 41% 48% 11% 23% 67% 10% 34% 54% 12% 61% 28% 11% 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%Path To Citizenship Border Security Don't KnowFocus of U.S. Immigration Policy All US Adults All NH Adults Republican Independent Democrat21% 16% 54% 9% 11% 24% 55% 9% 6% 25% 56% 14% 38% 4% 51% 7% 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%More Likely To Vote For Less Likely To Vote For Little Difference in YourVoteDon't KnowVoting For Immigration Bill Impact Your U.S. Senate Vote Total Republican Independent DemocratGranite State Poll Methodology These findings are based on the latest WMUR Granite State Poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center.  Five hundred and sixteen (516) randomly selected New Hampshire adults were interviewed by landline and cellular telephone between July 18 and July 29, 2013.  The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.3 percent.  The data have been weighted to adjust for numbers of adults and telephone lines within households, respondent sex, age, and region of the state.  In addition to potential sampling error, all surveys have other potential sources of non-sampling error including question order effects, question wording effects, and non-response. Due to rounding, percentages may sum to just above or below 100%. Respondent numbers in each demographic may not equal the total respondent number due to respondents choosing not to answer some demographic questions.   “The U.S. Senate is considering an immigration bill that would attempt to increase border security and create a path to citizenship for many immigrants who are in this country without permission from the U.S. Government. Based on what you have read or heard about this bill, do you favor or oppose it, or don’t you have an opinion on this?” IF FAVOR OR OPPOSE: “Do you feel that strongly or not strongly?” IF/DK/NO OPINION: “Would you say you lean toward favoring or opposing?”    July ’13  Strongly Favor 23%  Favor Somewhat 19%  Lean To Favoring 3%  Neutral 4%  Lean To Opposing 1%  Oppose Somewhat 8%  Strongly Oppose 20%  Don’t Know 22%  (N=) (515)    “What should be the main focus of the U.S. Government in dealing with immigration policy? Creating a path to citizenship for many immigrants who are in this country without permission from the U.S. Government or increasing border security to reduce or eliminate the number of immigrants coming into this country without permission from the U.S. government.”    July ’13  Create Path To Citizenship 41%  Increase Border Security 48%  Don’t Know 11%  (N=) (503)   “If your Senator voted for the immigration bill that recently passed the Senate, would you be more likely or less likely to vote for her or would that make little difference in your vote?”    July ’13  More Likely To Vote For 21%  Less Likely To Vote For 16%  Little Difference in Your Vote 54%  Don’t Know 9%  (N=) (512)   Favor/Oppose Senate Immigration Bill    Favor Neutral/DK Oppose (N) STATEWIDE 45% 26% 29% 515   Registered Democrat 57% 23% 21% 111  Registered Undeclared 45% 27% 29% 210  Registered Republican 28% 27% 45% 122   Democrat 65% 22% 12% 201  Independent 31% 27% 41% 125  Republican 30% 29% 40% 174   Liberal 62% 25% 13% 109  Moderate 45% 29% 27% 209  Conservative 30% 25% 45% 151   Support Tea Party 28% 19% 53% 128  Neutral 38% 34% 29% 168  Oppose Tea Party 61% 25% 14% 199   Romney/Ryan Voter 22% 27% 50% 186  Obama/Biden Voter 63% 21% 16% 234  Other 40% 38% 22% 31  Did Not Vote in 2012 48% 38% 14% 54   Union household 40% 29% 31% 80  Non-union 46% 25% 29% 428   Read Union Leader 46% 23% 31% 123  Read Boston Globe 56% 35% 9% 65  Watch WMUR 42% 23% 35% 276  Listen to NHPR 57% 21% 22% 166   10 yrs. or less in NH 45% 30% 25% 79  11 to 20 years 46% 31% 23% 114  More than 20 years 44% 24% 32% 320   18 to 34 53% 31% 16% 124  35 to 49 37% 30% 34% 154  50 to 64 45% 23% 32% 140  65 and over 46% 20% 34% 95   Male 45% 24% 31% 254  Female 44% 28% 27% 260   High school or less 29% 31% 40% 105  Some college 55% 18% 27% 127  College graduate 40% 28% 32% 164  Post-graduate 53% 29% 18% 118   Attend services 1 or more/week 31% 27% 42% 101  1-2 times a month 44% 25% 30% 59  Less often 49% 30% 21% 135  Never 49% 24% 27% 209   North Country 43% 26% 31% 36  Central / Lakes 44% 21% 36% 85  Connecticut Valley 52% 24% 25% 78  Mass Border 40% 28% 32% 118  Seacoast 38% 38% 24% 107  Manchester Area 53% 18% 29% 91   First Cong. Dist. 43% 29% 28% 274  Second Cong. Dist. 47% 21% 31% 234  Main Focus of Immigration Policy       Path To Citizenship Border Security Don’t Know (N) STATEWIDE 41% 48% 11% 503   Registered Democrat 69% 21% 9% 110  Registered Undeclared 41% 49% 9% 204  Registered Republican 23% 66% 10% 119   Democrat 61% 28% 11% 197  Independent 34% 54% 12% 119  Republican 23% 67% 10% 173   Liberal 66% 25% 9% 108  Moderate 47% 42% 10% 206  Conservative 12% 75% 13% 147   Support Tea Party 12% 74% 14% 124  Neutral 36% 54% 10% 164  Oppose Tea Party 65% 26% 9% 196   Romney/Ryan Voter 18% 74% 8% 183  Obama/Biden Voter 62% 28% 10% 229  Other 53% 32% 16% 30  Did Not Vote in 2012 23% 52% 24% 52   Union household 40% 49% 12% 80  Non-union 41% 49% 10% 417   Read Union Leader 34% 56% 10% 118  Read Boston Globe 68% 26% 6% 64  Watch WMUR 36% 55% 10% 269  Listen to NHPR 56% 36% 7% 161   10 yrs. or less in NH 49% 41% 10% 76  11 to 20 years 56% 36% 8% 111  More than 20 years 34% 54% 12% 314   18 to 34 53% 37% 10% 121  35 to 49 37% 49% 14% 153  50 to 64 39% 51% 9% 135  65 and over 34% 56% 10% 92   Male 38% 48% 14% 245  Female 44% 48% 8% 258   High school or less 22% 59% 19% 104  Some college 34% 56% 10% 125  College graduate 46% 47% 7% 160  Post-graduate 58% 31% 11% 113   Attend services 1 or more/week 38% 52% 10% 100  1-2 times a month 40% 50% 10% 58  Less often 42% 49% 9% 132  Never 41% 45% 13% 205   North Country 53% 33% 14% 36  Central / Lakes 35% 53% 12% 83  Connecticut Valley 42% 55% 3% 77  Mass Border 32% 53% 15% 115  Seacoast 51% 37% 12% 104  Manchester Area 41% 50% 9% 87   First Cong. Dist. 41% 48% 11% 266  Second Cong. Dist. 42% 47% 11% 231    Supporting Immigration Bill Affect Your Vote For U.S Senate   More Likely Less Likely Little Impact Don’t Know/  To Vote For To Vote For On Your Vote Not Sure (N) STATEWIDE 21% 16% 54% 9% 512   Registered Democrat 40% 7% 43% 10% 111  Registered Undeclared 18% 17% 55% 11% 210  Registered Republican 10% 29% 54% 7% 119   Democrat 38% 4% 51% 7% 201  Independent 6% 25% 56% 14% 124  Republican 11% 24% 55% 9% 172   Liberal 35% 10% 46% 9% 109  Moderate 24% 15% 53% 8% 209  Conservative 10% 26% 54% 10% 150   Support Tea Party 7% 33% 54% 6% 126  Neutral 11% 16% 60% 13% 167  Oppose Tea Party 39% 7% 47% 8% 199   Romney/Ryan Voter 9% 31% 48% 12% 185  Obama/Biden Voter 36% 8% 47% 8% 234  Other 0% 0% 90% 10% 31  Did Not Vote in 2012 8% 11% 77% 5% 54   Union household 15% 25% 56% 3% 80  Non-union 21% 15% 53% 10% 425   Read Union Leader 28% 14% 48% 11% 123  Read Boston Globe 37% 6% 49% 8% 64  Watch WMUR 20% 20% 51% 9% 276  Listen to NHPR 32% 12% 48% 8% 164   10 yrs. or less in NH 20% 6% 66% 8% 79  11 to 20 years 17% 8% 68% 7% 114  More than 20 years 22% 22% 45% 10% 317   18 to 34 23% 6% 67% 4% 124  35 to 49 11% 20% 57% 12% 152  50 to 64 23% 17% 48% 11% 139  65 and over 30% 22% 40% 8% 95   Male 21% 17% 57% 5% 253  Female 20% 16% 50% 13% 258   High school or less 10% 23% 61% 6% 105  Some college 16% 15% 57% 11% 127  College graduate 24% 19% 47% 10% 162  Post-graduate 31% 9% 52% 8% 117   Attend services 1 or more/week 17% 26% 47% 9% 100  1-2 times a month 25% 19% 45% 10% 59  Less often 24% 15% 52% 9% 133  Never 19% 12% 60% 9% 209   North Country 33% 15% 46% 7% 35  Central / Lakes 18% 24% 48% 10% 85  Connecticut Valley 25% 9% 54% 12% 78  Mass Border 10% 19% 62% 9% 116  Seacoast 23% 13% 54% 10% 107  Manchester Area 26% 17% 51% 6% 90   First Cong. Dist. 23% 16% 50% 11% 271  Second Cong. Dist. 19% 17% 57% 7% 234    

Immigration Bill Not Likely To Influence Senate Vote 08/05/13

https://scholars.unh.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1189&amp;context=survey_center_polls

Immigration Bill Not Likely To Influence Senate Vote 08/05/13

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