Republicans are poised to regain control of both the New Hampshire House of Representatives and Senate in November.  Election: 201

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THE WMUR / UNH NEW HAMPSHIRE ELECTION POLL THE UNIVERSITY OF NEW HAMPSHIRE SURVEY CENTER    October 19, 2010  REPUBLICANS LEAD IN GENERIC BALLOTS FOR NH HOUSE AND SENATE  By: Andrew E. Smith, Ph.D.  UNH Survey Center  www.unh.edu/survey-center  603/862-2226  DURHAM, NH – Republicans are poised to regain control of both the New Hampshire House of Representatives and Senate in November.  These findings are based on the latest WMUR / UNH New Hampshire Election Poll,∗ conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. Seven hundred nine (709) randomly selected New Hampshire likely voters were interviewed by telephone between October 7 and October 12, 2010.  The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 3.7%   New Hampshire State Senate  Democrats took control of the New Hampshire State Senate in 2006 and have held it since, although the gap narrowed slightly after the 2008 elections.  Democrats now hold 14 of the 24 seats in the Senate.  But Republicans are in position to take control of the Senate in 2010 based on a generic ballot question.  When asked if they would vote for the Republican or Democratic candidate for State Senate from their district, 47% of New Hampshire likely voters say they will vote for the Republican candidate, 39% say they will vote for the Democratic candidate, 2% prefer a candidate from another party, and 12% are undecided.  Republicans have increased their lead on this measure since September when 42% of New Hampshire likely voters said they would vote for the Republican and 38% for the Democrat.  In recent elections, this indicator has been accurate in predicting which party would gain the Senate majority, but less accurate in predicting the size of the majority.  However, the current Republican advantage on this indicator is the largest it has held in the 10 years it has been measured.  Vote in NH State Senate Distict and State Senate Composition0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%Oct. '00 Oct. '02 Oct. '04 Oct. '06 Sep. '08 Sept. '10 Oct. '10Republican Democrat Election Result, % GOP Election Result, % DEM                                                            ∗ We ask that this copyrighted information be referred to as the WMUR / UNH New Hampshire Election Poll, sponsored by WMUR-TV, and conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. NH State House of Representatives  Democrats also took control of the New Hampshire House of Representatives in 2006 and retained the majority in 2008. But Republicans now hold a sizable lead in a generic ballot question with 47% of likely New Hampshire voters saying they will vote for Republicans in their district, 37% support Democrats, 5% will cast a split ballot, 3% will vote for a third party candidate, and 8% are undecided.  Republicans have also widened the gap on this measure since September when they held a 41% to 35% lead.  This indicator has accurately predicted which party will gain the majority in the state house, but is less accurate about the size of the majority.  Multi-member House districts often result in greater swings than are seen in the state Senate.   But the current 10 percentage point Republican advantage is the largest since the UNH Survey Center began asking this question in 2000. Vote in NH State House District and House Composition0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%Oct. '00 Sept. '02 Oct. '04 Sept. '06 Sept. '08 Sept. '10 Oct. '10Republican Democrat Election Result, % GOP Election Result, % DEM  Spend Time with a Politician?  On a lighter note, likely voters were asked which of the major politicians running for election this year they would like to “hang out” with.  While no one politician leaps out as a political rock star, it is clear that Democrats want to spend time with Democratic candidates and Republicans with Republican candidates, but the plurality of voters have nor preference or don’t want to spend time with any candidate. Overall, 20% of likely voters say they would like to hang out with Kelly Ayotte, 19% with John Lynch, 9% with John Stephen, 7% with Carol Shea-Porter, 7% with Paul Hodes, 6% with Ann McLane Kuster, 4% with Frank Guinta, 3% with Charlie Bass, 1% with some other candidate, 15% with none of these candidates, and 11% have no preference or don’t know.  Among Democrats, Lynch (27%) is most popular, followed by Hodes (13%), Shea-Porter (13%) and Kuster (12%).  Among Republicans, Ayotte (32%) is most popular, followed by Stephen (18%), Lynch (11%), Guinta (6%), and Bass (4%).   These findings are based on the latest WMUR / UNH New Hampshire Election Poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. Seven hundred nine (709) randomly selected New Hampshire likely voters were interviewed by telephone between October 7 and October 12, 2010. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 3.7%    NH State House of Representatives – Republicans vs. Democrats – Likely Voters  "Please think about the November election for your representative to the New Hampshire House of Representatives.  Do you plan to vote for the Democratic or Republican candidate for the New Hampshire House of Representatives ... or do you plan to skip the election for New Hampshire House of Representatives this time?" ROTATE PARTIES   GOP Candidate DEM Candidate Other Party / Mixed Undecided (N=) Oct. ‘10 47% 37% 8% 8% (686) Sept. ‘10 41% 35% 9% 15% (465) Nov. ‘08 35% 44% 1% 21% (801) Sept. ‘08 35% 41% 8% 15% (501) July ‘08 33% 39% 6% 22% (440) Apr. ‘08 39% 41% 5% 15% (424) Nov. ‘06 36% 48% -- 16% (633) Oct. ‘04 43% 41% 2% 15% (917) Oct. ‘02 42% 37% -- 20% (601) Nov. ‘00 43% 35% -- 22% (790) Oct. ‘00 36% 35% -- 28% (595)   NH State Senate – Republicans vs. Democrats – Likely Voters  "Please think about the November election for your representative to the New Hampshire Senate.  Do you plan to vote for the Democratic or Republican candidate for the New Hampshire Senate ... or do you plan to skip the election for New Hampshire Senate this time?" ROTATE PARTIES   GOP Candidate DEM Candidate Other Party Undecided (N=) Oct. ‘10 47% 39% 2% 12% (698) Sept. ‘10 42% 38% 5% 16% (464) Nov. ‘08 35% 47% 1% 17% (804) Sept. ‘08 38% 41% 4% 19% (503) July ‘08 33% 41% 5% 22% (450) Apr. ‘08 36% 42% 6% 15% (430) Nov. ‘06 38% 48% -- 14% (633) Oct. ‘04 44% 42% 0% 14% (920) Oct. ‘02 43% 39% -- 19% (628) Nov. ‘00 42% 38% -- 20% (791) Oct. ‘00 38% 34% -- 28% (606)      "Which of the following candidates running in this year’s elections would you most like to hang out with? John Lynch ... John Stephen ... Paul Hodes ... Kelly Ayotte ... Carol Shea Porter ... Frank Guinta ... Ann McLane Kuster ... or Charlie Bass?" ROTATE CANDIDATES    Party Identification  Democrat Independent Republican Total Kelly Ayotte 8% 20% 32% 20% John Lynch 27% 13% 11% 19% John Stephen 1% 4% 18% 9% Paul Hodes 13% 5% 2% 7% Carol Shea-Porter 13% 6% 1% 7% Ann McLane Kuster 12% 1% 1% 6% Frank Guinta 0% 8% 6% 4% Charlie Bass 3% 4% 4% 3% Other 1% 1% * 1% None of them 12% 23% 16% 15% No preference 11% 16% 9% 11%  (253) (80) (249) (582) Plan on Voting for Republican or Democrat for State House of Representatives – Likely Voters      Some Rep/ Don't  Republican Democrat Other Some Dem Know (N=) STATEWIDE 47% 37% 3% 5% 8% 686  Registered Democrat 7% 82% 1% 7% 3% 194 Registered Undeclared 42% 35% 6% 5% 12% 253 Registered Republican 87% 1% 1% 4% 7% 236  Democrat 5% 81% 3% 7% 5% 288 Independent 41% 20% 6% 8% 26% 91 Republican 90% 0% 2% 3% 5% 305  Core Republican 93% 0% 1% 3% 4% 280 Swing Voter 42% 18% 7% 10% 24% 146 Core Democrat 2% 87% 2% 5% 4% 260  Excited about election outcome 59% 28% 1% 4% 7% 412 Depressed about election outcome 27% 53% 4% 7% 9% 187 Neutral/Don't Know 35% 44% 8% 5% 8% 87  Extremely interested in election 55% 33% 1% 7% 5% 301 Very interested 45% 39% 4% 3% 10% 283 Somewhat/Not very interested 33% 43% 4% 7% 13% 101  Definitely will vote 51% 34% 2% 6% 6% 543 Will vote unless emergency 32% 46% 6% 2% 14% 143  Support Tea Party 86% 4% 1% 3% 5% 236 Neutral 52% 27% 1% 5% 15% 173 Oppose Tea Party 8% 75% 3% 8% 7% 247  Approve of Obama 9% 74% 2% 7% 8% 302 Neutral 31% 32% 14% 10% 14% 19 Disapprove of Obama 81% 6% 3% 3% 7% 363  Male 55% 29% 4% 6% 6% 334 Female 41% 43% 2% 4% 10% 352  18 to 34 44% 44% 1% 4% 6% 51 35 to 49 55% 32% 1% 2% 10% 168 50 to 64 43% 41% 4% 8% 4% 254 65 and over 47% 34% 3% 4% 11% 204  High school or less 53% 28% 4% 5% 10% 112 Some college 53% 30% 1% 5% 11% 120 College graduate 51% 35% 2% 5% 6% 259 Post-graduate 35% 48% 4% 5% 8% 192  Attend services 1 or more/week 58% 27% 2% 4% 9% 199 1-2 times a month 54% 29% 3% 3% 10% 100 Less often 41% 43% 3% 6% 7% 205 Never 38% 45% 3% 8% 6% 164  10 yrs or less in NH 51% 36% 2% 0% 11% 107 11 to 20 years 48% 35% 1% 6% 10% 137 More than 20 years 47% 37% 3% 6% 6% 440  North Country 41% 48% 0% 4% 8% 57 Central / Lakes 45% 38% 1% 6% 10% 113 Connecticut Valley 36% 44% 6% 4% 10% 93 Mass Border 51% 34% 3% 5% 7% 206 Seacoast 45% 38% 1% 5% 11% 104 Manchester Area 58% 27% 3% 7% 5% 112  First Cong. Dist 55% 29% 2% 7% 8% 325 Second Cong. Dist 41% 44% 3% 4% 8% 361 Plan on Voting for Republican or Democrat for State Senate – Likely Voters   Republican Democrat Other Don't Know (N=) STATEWIDE 47% 39% 2% 12% 698  Registered Democrat 9% 84% 1% 6% 198 Registered Undeclared 42% 36% 3% 20% 260 Registered Republican 86% 4% 1% 9% 236  Democrat 6% 84% 2% 9% 293 Independent 44% 20% 3% 33% 94 Republican 87% 2% 1% 9% 308  Core Republican 93% 0% 0% 6% 282 Swing Voter 40% 22% 6% 32% 151 Core Democrat 2% 90% 0% 8% 265  Excited about election outcome 59% 29% 0% 12% 416 Depressed about election outcome 28% 56% 3% 14% 192 Neutral/Don't Know 34% 49% 6% 11% 89  Extremely interested in election 55% 36% 0% 9% 303 Very interested 44% 41% 2% 13% 289 Somewhat/Not very interested 33% 43% 4% 21% 106  Definitely will vote 51% 37% 1% 11% 550 Will vote unless emergency 34% 44% 3% 19% 148  Support Tea Party 88% 5% 1% 6% 239 Neutral 49% 28% 1% 22% 177 Oppose Tea Party 7% 80% 2% 11% 253  Approve of Obama 7% 80% 1% 13% 307 Neutral 37% 26% 13% 24% 21 Disapprove of Obama 81% 6% 2% 11% 368  Male 53% 33% 2% 12% 338 Female 41% 44% 1% 13% 360  18 to 34 44% 46% 1% 8% 51 35 to 49 52% 33% 1% 14% 174 50 to 64 45% 42% 2% 12% 259 65 and over 47% 39% 2% 12% 206  High school or less 55% 30% 2% 12% 116 Some college 51% 32% 2% 15% 121 College graduate 51% 37% 1% 11% 263 Post-graduate 35% 51% 2% 12% 194  Attend services 1 or more/week 57% 29% 2% 12% 201 1-2 times a month 49% 33% 1% 17% 103 Less often 43% 43% 2% 12% 209 Never 39% 49% 2% 10% 166  10 yrs or less in NH 46% 37% 2% 15% 108 11 to 20 years 46% 36% 1% 18% 139 More than 20 years 48% 40% 2% 10% 448  North Country 39% 47% 0% 14% 58 Central / Lakes 41% 45% 0% 14% 114 Connecticut Valley 43% 43% 4% 10% 94 Mass Border 51% 34% 1% 14% 210 Seacoast 45% 43% 1% 11% 107 Manchester Area 56% 31% 4% 10% 115  First Cong. Dist 53% 33% 2% 12% 332 Second Cong. Dist 42% 44% 1% 13% 365 Which Candidate Would You Most Like To “Hang Out” With       No Preference/  Don't  Stephen Lynch Ayotte Shea Porter None Other Know (N=) STATEWIDE 9% 19% 20% 7% 22% 20% 4% 542  Registered Democrat 3% 29% 4% 13% 17% 31% 3% 156 Registered Undeclared 9% 18% 17% 7% 26% 19% 4% 210 Registered Republican 15% 11% 36% 1% 20% 12% 4% 176  Democrat 1% 28% 8% 13% 19% 28% 3% 231 Independent 5% 14% 21% 7% 31% 19% 4% 71 Republican 18% 11% 31% 1% 22% 13% 4% 239  Core Republican 19% 9% 35% 1% 19% 15% 4% 214 Swing Voter 7% 19% 18% 6% 34% 13% 4% 127 Core Democrat 0% 29% 4% 14% 17% 31% 4% 202  Excited about election outcome 12% 17% 24% 6% 17% 20% 4% 323 Depressed about election outcome 4% 21% 13% 9% 27% 22% 4% 151 Neutral/Don't Know 8% 21% 13% 6% 29% 20% 2% 69  Extremely interested in election 11% 17% 25% 5% 16% 25% 1% 225 Very interested 9% 20% 17% 9% 22% 17% 5% 227 Somewhat/Not very interested 5% 19% 14% 8% 33% 16% 5% 90  Definitely will vote 10% 20% 21% 5% 20% 21% 3% 418 Will vote unless emergency 7% 14% 14% 13% 28% 18% 6% 124  Support Tea Party 17% 10% 34% 1% 21% 16% 2% 192 Neutral 11% 20% 19% 4% 27% 14% 4% 128 Oppose Tea Party 0% 26% 7% 14% 20% 30% 4% 200  Approve of Obama 1% 31% 5% 13% 20% 27% 3% 235 Neutral 0% 9% 10% 14% 56% 7% 4% 22 Disapprove of Obama 17% 10% 33% 1% 21% 15% 4% 285  Male 11% 19% 19% 5% 25% 19% 2% 269 Female 7% 19% 20% 9% 18% 21% 5% 273  18 to 34 12% 14% 16% 14% 17% 25% 2% 41 35 to 49 11% 17% 20% 4% 22% 23% 4% 144 50 to 64 9% 21% 18% 8% 22% 21% 3% 202 65 and over 8% 19% 22% 8% 21% 17% 5% 148  High school or less 8% 15% 17% 10% 26% 17% 7% 88 Some college 10% 21% 29% 3% 21% 15% 1% 105 College graduate 11% 17% 20% 5% 23% 20% 3% 199 Post-graduate 6% 21% 14% 11% 18% 26% 4% 150  Attend services 1 or more/week 19% 17% 23% 6% 17% 13% 5% 151 1-2 times a month 1% 31% 22% 3% 19% 17% 7% 77 Less often 7% 22% 16% 5% 19% 27% 3% 165 Never 7% 11% 19% 11% 30% 22% 0% 137  10 yrs or less in NH 7% 13% 18% 11% 30% 18% 4% 85 11 to 20 years 9% 24% 16% 6% 15% 28% 3% 115 More than 20 years 10% 18% 21% 7% 22% 19% 4% 340  North Country 13% 20% 11% 9% 23% 17% 8% 36 Central / Lakes 4% 20% 21% 5% 20% 28% 3% 91 Connecticut Valley 9% 25% 15% 3% 30% 14% 3% 66 Mass Border 9% 16% 26% 3% 21% 22% 3% 167 Seacoast 8% 14% 21% 24% 16% 11% 6% 93 Manchester Area 15% 22% 13% 1% 23% 24% 3% 91  First Cong. Dist 13% 18% 15% 11% 21% 17% 5% 271 Second Cong. Dist 6% 19% 24% 3% 22% 24% 2% 271  

Republicans Lead In Generic Ballots For NH House And Senate 10/19/2010

https://scholars.unh.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1288&amp;context=survey_center_polls

Republicans Lead In Generic Ballots For NH House And Senate 10/19/2010

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