New Hampshire residents are divided in their opinion of the recently passed tax law. Despite some predictions that most Americans will see at least a short-term reduction in the taxes they pay, only one-third believe their taxes will decrease or that they will be better off. Republicans are far more likely than Democrats and Independents to favor the tax law and believe they will be better off and see their taxes decrease. When asked about the most important problem facing themselves and their family, respondents most frequently mention health/healthcare or income/finances

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The	Granite	State	PolMarch 1, 2018GRANITE STATERS SKEPTICAL TAX LAW WILL BENEFIT THEM; CITE HEALTH AS MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEM FOR FAMILYBy:     Andrew E. Smith, Ph.D.                                                                        andrew.smith@unh.edu        Zachary S. Azem, M.A.                                                                                  603-862-2226        Sean P. McKinley, M.A.                                                                     cola.unh.edu/survey-centerDURHAM, NH – New Hampshire residents are divided in their opinion of the recently passed tax law. Despite some predicƟons thatmost Americans wil see at least a short-term reducƟon in the taxes they pay, only one-third believe their taxes wil decrease or thatthey wil be beƩer oﬀ. Republicans are far more likely than Democrats and Independents to favor the tax law and believe they wil bebeƩer oﬀ and see their taxes decrease. When asked about the most important problem facing themselves and their family, respondentsmost frequently menƟon health/healthcare or income/ﬁnances.These ﬁndings are based on the latest Granite State Pol*, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. Five hundredand sixty-six (566) randomly selected New Hampshire adults were interviewed by landline and celular telephone between February 10and February 21, 2018. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.1 percent.Recent Tax LegislaƟon Last December, Congress passed and President Trump signed legislaƟon intended to reduce taxes for many individuals and businesses.New Hampshire residents are somewhat aware of the law: 21% percent say they have heard a great deal about the new tax law, 36%have heard a fair amount, 29% have heard only a liƩle, 13% have heard nothing at al, and less than 1% don't know or are unsure.Republicans (63%) and Democrats (58%) are more likely than Independents (40%) to say they have heard a great deal or a fair amount. In November 2017, when the legislaƟon was sƟl being formulated and debated, 18% reported hearing a great deal about the debate onit while 20% reported having heard nothing at al about it.* We ask that this copyrighted informaƟon be referred to as the Granite State Pol, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center.How Much Heard About Tax LegislaƟon Passed by Congress and Signed by President in DecemberOVERALL Democrat Independent Republican0%20%40%60%80%100%21%36%29%13%0%23%40%27%10% 11%29% 32% 28% 26%38%28%7%1%A Great DealA Fair AmountOnly A LittleNothing At AlDon't KnowOpinion on the recent tax law is divided among Granite Staters who have heard at least a liƩle about it (N=489). Thirty-four percent saythey strongly (22%) or somewhat (11%) favor it, 36% strongly (27%) or somewhat (9%) oppose it, 17% are neutral, and 13% don't knowor are unsure. There is a very large parƟsan divide in support for the tax law. Nearly two-thirds of Democrats (65%) oppose the law,seven in ten Republicans (70%) favor it, and Independents are split nearly evenly (29% in favor, 34% opposed). In November 2017, whenthe details of the legislaƟon were sƟl being decided upon, 39% said they were in favor of the plan while 43% opposed it.ConservaƟve talk radio listeners, those who voted for Donald Trump in 2016, self-described conservaƟves, those who aƩend religiousservices once a week or more oŌen, and men are more likely than others to favor this tax legislaƟon. Self-described liberals, those whovoted for Hilary Clinton in 2016, Boston Globe readers, NHPR listeners, those who never aƩend religious services, and those who havecompleted postgraduate work are more likely than others to oppose it.OVERALL Democrat Independent Republican0%20%40%60%80%100%34% 36%17% 13%11%22% 27%9%65%20%10%5%13%52%29%34%14%23%14%14%15%19%70%13% 11%6%20%50%Somewhat FavorStrongly FavorSomewhat OpposeStrongly OpposeNeutralDon't Know Enough To SayExpected Impact of Tax PlanThirty-four percent of Granite Staters believe their family wil be beƩer oﬀ under the new tax law, 33% think it wil not make much of adiﬀerence, 23% think they wil be worse oﬀ, and 9% don't know or are not sure. Republicans (57%) are far more likely thanIndependents (26%) or Democrats (18%) to think their family wil be beƩer oﬀ under the new tax law.ConservaƟve talk radio listeners, self-described conservaƟves, those who voted for Donald Trump in 2016, and those who aƩendreligious services once a week or more oŌen are more likely than others to think themselves and their family wil be beƩer oﬀ under thenew tax law. Those who voted for Hilary Clinton in 2016 and self-described liberals are more likely to say they wil be worse oﬀ.OVERALL Democrat Independent Republican0%20%40%60%80%100%34% 33%23%9%18%33%40%9%26%39%24%12%57%30%5% 7%Support or Oppose Recent Tax LegislaƟonBetter OﬀNot Make A DiﬀerenceWorse OﬀDon't Know/Not SureBelieve Yourself and Family BeƩer or Worse Oﬀ Under Tax PlanNon-parƟsan tax experts predict that as a result of the recent tax legislaƟon, most Americans wil see at least a short-term decrease inthe amount of taxes they pay. However, only one-third (33%) of New Hampshire residents believe their taxes wil decrease due to thelegislaƟon. Thirty-ﬁve percent believe the amount of taxes they pay wil stay the same, 26% believe their taxes wil increase, and 6%don't know or are unsure. Republicans (47%) are far more likely than Democrats (25%) or Independents (20%) to believe their taxes wildecrease, but even among Republicans only a plurality believe this wil be the case.ConservaƟve talk radio listeners, self-described conservaƟves, and those who voted for Donald Trump in 2016 are more likely thanothers to believe the amount of taxes they wil be pay wil decrease under the new tax law. Self-described liberals and those who votedfor Hilary Clinton in 2016 are more likely to say they their taxes wil increase.OVERALL Democrat Independent Republican0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%33% 35%26%6%25%31%39%5%20%45%25%10%47%36%11%6%DecreaseStay the SameIncreaseDon't Know/Not SureBelieve Amount You Pay in Taxes Wil Increase, Decrease, or Stay the Same When asked about the most important problem facing themselves and their family, a quarter of Granite Staters menƟon health orhealthcare (24%), 15% menƟon income or ﬁnances, and 8% each menƟon taxes or the economy. Fewer respondents menƟon the statusof the country or government (4%), educaƟon costs or loans (4%), the cost of living or housing (4%), aging or reƟrement (3%), jobavailability or security (3%), or safety or security (3%). Fourteen percent menƟon something else as their most important problem, 7%say they have no problems, and 3% don't know or are unsure.In a Granite State Pol earlier this month, when asked for the most important problem facing the state, more than half of respondentscited the drug crisis, but few menƟon it as the most important problem facing themselves or their family.ConservaƟve talk radio listeners, those who voted for Donald Trump in 2016, and self-idenƟﬁed Republicans are more likely than othersto cite taxes as the most important problem facing their family.0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50%Health/HealthcareIncome/FinancesTaxesEconomyStatus of Country/GovernmentEducation Costs/LoansCost of Living/HousingAging/RetirementJob Availability/SecuritySafety/SecurityOtherNo ProblemsDon't Know24%15%14%8%8%4%4%4%3%3%3%7%3%Most Important Problem Facing You and Your Familytaxessocialsecurityretirementproblemsmoneymedicaljobissuesinsuranceincomeimmigration highhealthcarehealthﬁnancesfamilyeconomycostcolegecareMost Important Problem Facing You and Your Family - WordcloudGranite State Pol MethodologyThese ﬁndings are based on the latest Granite State Pol, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. Five hundredand sixty-six (566) randomly selected New Hampshire adults were interviewed in English by landline and celular telephone betweenFebruary 10 and February 21, 2018. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.1 percent. These MSE’s have not been adjustedfor design eﬀect. The design eﬀect for the survey is 1.2%.The random sample used in the Granite State Pol was purchased from MarkeƟng Systems Group (MSG), Horsham, PA. MSG screenseach selected telephone number to eliminate non-working numbers, disconnected numbers, and business numbers to improve theeﬃciency of the sample, reducing the amount of Ɵme interviewers spend caling non-usable numbers. When a landline number isreached, the interviewer randomly selects a member of the household by asking to speak with the adult currently living in thehousehold who has had the most recent birthday. This selecƟon process ensures that every adult (18 years of age or older) in thehousehold has an equal chance of being included in the survey.The data have been weighted to adjust for numbers of adults and telephone lines within households. AddiƟonaly, data were weightedby respondent sex, age, educaƟon, and region of the state to targets from the most recent American Community Survey (ACS)conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau. In addiƟon to potenƟal sampling error, al surveys have other potenƟal sources of non-samplingerror including quesƟon order eﬀects, quesƟon wording eﬀects, and non-response. Due to rounding, percentages may not sum to100%. The number of respondents in each demographic below may not equal the number reported in cross-tabulaƟon tables as somerespondents choose not to answer some quesƟons.For more informaƟon about the methodology used in the Granite State Pol, contact Dr. Andrew Smith at (603) 862-2226 or by email atandrew.smith@unh.edu.Granite State Pol, Winter 2018 DemographicsNSex ofRespondentFemaleMaleAge ofRespondent18 to 3435 to 4950 to 6465 and olderLevel ofEducationHigh school or lessTechnical school/Some colegeColege graduatePostgraduate workRegion ofStateCentral / LakesConnecticut ValeyManchester AreaMass BorderNorth CountrySeacoastRegisteredto VoteReg. DemocratReg. Undeclared/Not Reg.Reg. RepublicanParty ID DemocratIndependentRepublican27728910517112414670110214168100621371067092129300131199129223%49%51%19%31%23%27%12%20%38%30%18%11%24%19%12%16%23%54%23%36%23%41%TAX1: How much have you seen or heard about the tax law that was passed by Congress and signed into law by the President in late December, agreat deal, a fair amount, only a little, or nothing at al?A Great Deal A Fair Amount Only A Little Nothing At Al Don't KnowSTATEWIDE Feb 2018 0%13%29%36%21%N566Registered toVoteReg. DemocratReg. Undeclared/Not Reg.Reg. RepublicanParty ID DemocratIndependentRepublicanPoliticalIdeologyLiberalModerateConservativeMedia Listen to Conserv. RadioListen to NHPRRead Boston GlobeRead Local NewspapersRead Union LeaderWatch WMURAge ofRespondent18 to 3435 to 4950 to 6465 and olderSex ofRespondentFemaleMaleLevel ofEducationHigh school or lessTechnical school/Some colegeColege graduatePostgraduate workFrequencyAttend Relig.ServiceNeverFew times a yearOnce-twice a monthOnce a week or more2016PresidentialElection VoteDonald TrumpHilary ClintonDid Not VoteOtherRegion of StateCentral / LakesConnecticut ValeyManchester AreaMass BorderNorth CountrySeacoast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ased on what you have seen or heard, do you favor or oppose the tax law or don't you have an opinion?StronglyFavorSomewhatFavor NeutralSomewhatOpposeStronglyOpposeDon't KnowEnough ToSaySTATEWIDE Feb 2018 13%27%9%17%11%22%N489Registered toVoteReg. DemocratReg. Undeclared/Not Reg.Reg. RepublicanParty ID DemocratIndependentRepublicanPoliticalIdeologyLiberalModerateConservativeMedia Listen to Conserv. RadioListen to NHPRRead Boston GlobeRead Local NewspapersRead Union LeaderWatch WMURAge ofRespondent18 to 3435 to 4950 to 6465 and olderSex ofRespondentFemaleMaleLevel ofEducationHigh school or lessTechnical school/Some colegeColege graduatePostgraduate workFrequencyAttend Relig.ServiceNeverFew times a yearOnce-twice a monthOnce a week or more2016PresidentialElection VoteDonald TrumpHilary ClintonDid Not VoteOtherRegion of StateCentral / LakesConnecticut ValeyManchester AreaMass BorderNorth CountrySeacoast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rom what you know of that legislation, do you think you and your family wil be better oﬀ or worse oﬀ under the new tax law, or wil it notmake much of a diﬀerence?Better Oﬀ Not Make ADiﬀerence Worse OﬀDon't Know/NotSureSTATEWIDE Feb 2018 9%23%33%34%N487Registered toVoteReg. DemocratReg. Undeclared/Not Reg.Reg. RepublicanParty ID DemocratIndependentRepublicanPoliticalIdeologyLiberalModerateConservativeMedia Listen to Conserv. RadioListen to NHPRRead Boston GlobeRead Local NewspapersRead Union LeaderWatch WMURAge ofRespondent18 to 3435 to 4950 to 6465 and olderSex ofRespondentFemaleMaleLevel ofEducationHigh school or lessTechnical school/Some colegeColege graduatePostgraduate workFrequencyAttend Relig.ServiceNeverFew times a yearOnce-twice a monthOnce a week or more2016PresidentialElection VoteDonald TrumpHilary ClintonDid Not VoteOtherRegion of StateCentral / LakesConnecticut ValeyManchester AreaMass BorderNorth CountrySeacoast7%9%9%6%26%34%28%33%39%58%31%17%7%12%9%5%24%40%30%39%33%57%26%18%7%9%11%4%27%37%27%36%33%61%28%18%10%6%6%5%7%4%26%23%24%32%32%7%32%38%34%25%30%14%32%33%37%38%32%75%11%8%13%6%27%22%16%26%38%27%36%37%24%43%35%31%11%7%20%27%29%37%40%29%5%8%10%11%23%28%21%22%28%32%37%31%43%31%31%37%7%8%12%8%17%31%20%27%28%34%30%37%47%27%38%28%9%19%9%7%31%19%39%5%30%45%33%31%30%17%19%57%7%2%8%15%9%11%24%23%18%27%24%26%34%38%39%24%35%29%35%37%34%33%32%35%115256112182912011352131112558915458134729615610012324524266102186129924214619945501951838352131865581TAX4: And from what you know of that legislation, do you think the amount you pay in taxes wil increase, decrease, or stay the same?Increase Stay the Same Decrease Don't Know/NotSureSTATEWIDE Feb 2018 6%33%35%26%N488Registered toVoteReg. DemocratReg. Undeclared/Not Reg.Reg. RepublicanParty ID DemocratIndependentRepublicanPoliticalIdeologyLiberalModerateConservativeMedia Listen to Conserv. RadioListen to NHPRRead Boston GlobeRead Local NewspapersRead Union LeaderWatch WMURAge ofRespondent18 to 3435 to 4950 to 6465 and olderSex ofRespondentFemaleMaleLevel ofEducationHigh school or lessTechnical school/Some colegeColege graduatePostgraduate workFrequencyAttend Relig.ServiceNeverFew times a yearOnce-twice a monthOnce a week or more2016PresidentialElection VoteDonald TrumpHilary ClintonDid Not VoteOtherRegion of StateCentral / LakesConnecticut ValeyManchester AreaMass BorderNorth CountrySeacoast4%6%7%47%28%28%32%40%27%16%25%38%6%10%5%47%20%25%36%45%31%11%25%39%7%6%7%49%28%24%30%41%29%14%25%40%6%2%4%6%7%3%31%41%32%41%34%50%33%35%34%32%34%34%30%22%30%21%26%13%11%4%7%5%21%40%38%28%42%31%31%39%26%25%23%28%8%4%37%28%32%39%23%29%3%6%6%9%41%37%33%24%33%32%35%39%22%26%26%28%10%9%8%3%35%17%37%33%32%44%34%35%23%31%22%29%9%12%5%5%30%20%26%46%40%45%30%36%21%24%40%13%5%1%8%3%5%13%31%31%25%37%42%37%36%44%39%41%17%29%29%24%28%18%37%21%115256112182912011352131112558915458135729615610012324624266102186129924214719945501951838452131865581MIPFAM: What is the most important problem facing you and your family?Aging/RetirementCost ofLiving/HousingEconomy EducationCosts/LoansHealth/HealthcareIncome/FinancesJobAvailability/SecuritySTATEWIDE Feb 2018 3%15%24%4%8%4%3%Registered toVoteReg. DemocratReg. Undeclared/Not Reg.Reg. RepublicanParty ID DemocratIndependentRepublicanPoliticalIdeologyLiberalModerateConservativeMedia Listen to Conserv. RadioListen to NHPRRead Boston GlobeRead Local NewspapersRead Union LeaderWatch WMURAge ofRespondent18 to 3435 to 4950 to 6465 and olderSex ofRespondentFemaleMaleLevel ofEducationHigh school or lessTechnical school/Some colegeColege graduatePostgraduate workFrequencyAttend Relig.ServiceNeverFew times a yearOnce-twice a monthOnce a week or more2016PresidentialElection VoteDonald TrumpHilary ClintonDid Not VoteOtherRegion of StateCentral / LakesConnecticut ValeyManchester AreaMass BorderNorth CountrySeacoast5%2%3%12%17%11%16%21%37%0%5%5%8%7%8%3%4%4%2%4%3%4%0%3%12%24%12%17%23%31%2%3%6%9%5%8%2%7%4%2%1%5%2%4%2%14%15%12%18%25%33%0%4%7%10%6%11%3%3%1%3%4%4%2%0%3%3%3%16%8%9%9%10%6%28%34%31%26%31%16%4%5%3%4%9%11%10%16%9%8%3%2%6%3%1%4%3%4%5%4%6%2%3%5%3%10%12%18%20%25%33%20%15%0%4%3%7%9%6%6%9%2%2%7%5%11%4%1%3%4%14%15%18%30%2%6%10%6%4%4%4%3%3%1%4%4%6%12%14%21%30%22%28%18%9%3%4%3%8%7%10%5%3%3%3%6%4%6%3%1%3%3%4%11%13%10%20%22%24%29%22%9%3%5%9%8%8%7%1%7%3%4%3%4%3%7%3%2%22%26%10%14%28%24%29%17%1%4%7%2%10%10%8%11%4%1%5%2%2%6%1%2%7%3%4%3%14%9%10%20%10%23%24%27%25%23%23%22%5%4%4%3%5%2%5%10%8%10%2%10%8%3%2%4%6%3%1%6%2%5%1%MIPFAM: What is the most important problem facing you and your family?Taxes Safety/SecurityStatus ofCountry/GovernmentNo Problems Other Don't KnowSTATEWIDE Feb 2018 3%14%7%4%3%8%N533Registered toVoteReg. DemocratReg. Undeclared/Not Reg.Reg. RepublicanParty ID DemocratIndependentRepublicanPoliticalIdeologyLiberalModerateConservativeMedia Listen to Conserv. RadioListen to NHPRRead Boston GlobeRead Local NewspapersRead Union LeaderWatch WMURAge ofRespondent18 to 3435 to 4950 to 6465 and olderSex ofRespondentFemaleMaleLevel ofEducationHigh school or lessTechnical school/Some colegeColege graduatePostgraduate workFrequencyAttend Relig.ServiceNeverFew times a yearOnce-twice a monthOnce a week or more2016PresidentialElection VoteDonald TrumpHilary ClintonDid Not VoteOtherRegion of StateCentral / LakesConnecticut ValeyManchester AreaMass BorderNorth CountrySeacoast5%3%1%23%13%11%10%6%6%2%5%4%0%3%5%13%10%2%3%3%2%20%11%12%7%9%6%1%7%6%2%0%4%18%6%1%4%1%6%25%11%9%6%7%5%1%6%4%3%2%4%11%11%1%3%5%3%3%2%13%13%12%19%16%30%6%9%8%7%7%6%4%4%4%7%6%1%3%0%1%2%4%6%8%4%0%2%21%0%0%3%8%15%15%15%13%12%5%7%6%7%4%4%3%4%4%2%1%4%9%10%9%4%2%16%13%10%4%6%3%2%4%9%7%1%3%2%5%12%19%13%15%5%9%6%8%7%5%4%3%4%4%2%2%8%6%8%10%3%2%3%3%18%9%14%15%9%4%6%7%7%4%5%3%3%6%2%2%10%17%6%7%2%2%4%17%12%13%17%7%11%6%7%6%6%3%1%4%2%1%2%1%19%3%7%2%2%5%9%9%19%13%13%20%10%7%6%5%8%8%1%10%4%3%6%5%5%3%3%6%1%10%2%9%11%16%1%11528512818411721814922811928592159631427598166123128262271671061951609944157226477320319594591281016388

Granite Staters Skeptical Tax Law Will Benefit Them; Cite Health As Most Important Problem For Family 3/1/18

https://scholars.unh.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1010&amp;context=survey_center_polls

Granite Staters Skeptical Tax Law Will Benefit Them; Cite Health As Most Important Problem For Family 3/1/18

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