Republican Senators John Sununu and Judd Gregg have seen their popularity in the Granite State drop in the wake of the 2006 election

Survey Center, UNH

English

University of New Hampshire

 
THE WMUR 
GRANITE STATE POLL 
THE UNIVERSITY OF NEW HAMPSHIRE 
 
 
GREGG & SUNUNU FAVORABILITY SLIDE 
 
By: Andrew E. Smith, Ph.D.  603/862-2226 FOR RELEASE 
 UNH Survey Center  February 23, 2007 
 www.unh.edu/survey-center 
 
DURHAM, NH – Republican Senators John Sununu and Judd Gregg have seen their popularity in the Granite State drop in the 
wake of the 2006 election. 
 
These findings are based on the latest Granite State Poll,?  conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center.  The 
Granite State Poll is sponsored by WMUR-TV, Manchester.  Five hundred thirty-eight (538) randomly selected New Hampshire 
adults were interviewed by telephone between February 1 and February 5, 2007.  The margin of sampling error for the survey is 
+/-4.2 percent   Two hundred fifty (250) respondents lived in New Hampshire’s 1st Congressional District (margin of sampling 
error = +/-6.2%) and 288 lived in the 2nd District (margin of sampling error = +/-5.8%). 
 
Favorability Ratings of NH Senators 
John Sununu, New Hampshire’s junior Senator is up for re-election in 2008.  He is being targeted by national and state 
Democrats, who see him as vulnerable because of his ties to the Bush administration and because of the big gains Democrats 
made in New Hampshire in 2006.  Sununu’s favorability ratings have dropped somewhat in recent months and he is now viewed 
favorably by only 45 percent of New Hampshire adults, 25 percent having an unfavorable opinion of him, 20 percent are neutral 
and 11 percent don’t know enough to say.  Sununu’s net favorability rating is +20 percent, slightly down from +24% in 
September and at the lowest it has been since June 2003.  “A ten percentage point drop in favorability ratings in the past year 
should be a wake-up call for Sununu ,” said Andrew Smith, Director of the UNH Survey Center.  “The 2006 election showed 
that Republican candidates must work harder to get their base to the polls in order to be successful.  At the same time, perceived 
vulnerability from lower favorability ratings could attract stronger Democratic opponents.” 
 
Sununu is viewed most favorably by Republicans and conservatives, and residents of Central New Hampshire.  He is least 
popular among Democrats and liberals. 
 
 
 
                                                        
?  We ask that this copyrighted information be referred to as the Granite State Poll, sponsored by WMUR-TV. 
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Favorability Ratings – Senator John Sununu 
 
Senator Judd Gregg remains slightly more popular than Sununu -- 48 percent of New Hampshire adults have a favorable 
opinion of Gregg, 25 percent have an unfavorable opinion, 15 percent are neutral and 12 percent don’t know enough to say.  
Gregg’s net favorability rating stands at +23 percent – a significant decline from +34 percent in September and is at the lowest 
point since the Granite State Poll began in 2001. 
 
 
 
 
NH 1st District 
In New Hampshire’s 1st Congressional District, Democrat Carol Shea-Porter pulled off a stunning upset of incumbent Jeb 
Bradley in November.  Shea-Porter was largely unknown to the 1st District during the election and benefited from a steep 
decline in Republican turnout.  Since her election, her favorability ratings have increased dramatically in the district.  Currently, 
40 percent of 1st District adults have a favorable opinion of Shea-Porter, 15 percent have an unfavorable opinion of her, 17 
percent are neutral, and 28 percent say they don’t know enough about her to say.  Shea-Porter’s net favorability rating is a solid 
+25 percent, up from +11 percent in September.   
 
Shea-Porter’s approval ratings are similar to those of Jeb Bradley soon after he began his first term  In February, 2003, 39 
percent of 1st District residents had a favorable opinion of Jeb Bradley, 9 percent had an unfavorable opinion of him, 14 percent 
were neutral, and 38 did not know enough about him to say. 
 
“The 1st District is the more Republican of New Hampshire’s two Congressional districts and she will have to continue to 
improve her popularity over the coming year to win re-election,” said Andrew Smith, Director of the UNH Survey Center. 
 
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Favorability Ratings – Carol Shea-Porter NH 1st District 
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Favorability Ratings – Senator Judd Gregg 
 
NH 2nd District 
In the 2nd District, Democrat Paul Hodes upset 5 term Republican incumbent Charley Bass in a re-match of their 2004 race, 
benefiting from anti-Bush sentiment and low Republican turnout in the District.  Hodes is considerably less well known in the 
2nd District than Shea-Porter is in the 1st.  Currently, only 29 percent of  2nd District residents say they have a favorable opinion 
of Hodes, 14 percent have an unfavorable opinion of him, 18 percent are neutral, and 39 percent say they know too little about 
him to say.   Hodes’ net favorability rating is +15 percent, up from +5% in September. 
 
 
 
 
 
  
Granite State Poll Methodology 
These findings are based on the latest Granite State Poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center.  The 
Granite State Poll is sponsored by WMUR-TV, Manchester.  Five hundred thirty-eight (538) randomly selected New Hampshire 
adults were interviewed by telephone between February 1 and February 5, 2007.  The margin of sampling error for the survey is 
+/-4.2 percent.  Two hundred fifty (250) respondents lived in New Hampshire’s 1st Congressional District (margin of sampling 
error = +/-6.2%) and 288 lived in the 2nd District (margin of sampling error = +/-5.8%).  Results reported for other subgroups 
have potential for somewhat larger variation than those for the entire population. 
 
 
The data have been weighted to adjust for numbers of adults and telephone lines within households, respondent sex, and region 
of the state.  In addition to potential sampling error, all surveys have other potential sources of non-sampling error including 
question order effects, question wording effects, and non-response. 
 
 
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Favorable Unfavorable
Favorability Ratings – Paul Hodes NH 2nd District 
 
 
Favorability Rating – U.S. Senator Judd Gregg 
"Next, I'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news.  As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable 
or unfavorable opinion of this person - or if you have never heard of him or her.  Senator Judd Gregg." 
 
Statewide Favorable Neutral Unfavorable Don’t Know (N) 
Feb. ‘07 48% 15% 25% 12% (533) 
Sept. ‘06 53 15 19 13 (513) 
July ‘06 58 11 17 14 (503) 
Apr. ‘06 61 12 15 13 (505) 
Feb. ‘06 59 14 15 12 (501) 
Oct. ‘05 58 10 20 12 (510) 
July ‘05 61 8 18 13 (501) 
July ‘04 66 8 13 12 (508) 
Apr. ‘04  59 11 15 15 (541) 
Feb. ‘04 63 12 10 15 (509) 
Oct. ‘03 63 8 14 16 (496) 
June ‘03   58 10 16 16 (514) 
Apr. ‘03 61 8 13 18 (507) 
Feb. ‘03 58 8 18 16 (652) 
June ‘02 58 10 17 15 (638) 
Apr. ‘02 60 6 16 18 (691) 
Feb. ‘02 62 9 15 14 (724) 
Oct. ‘01 62 9 13 16 (679) 
 
 
 
Favorability Rating – U.S. Senator John Sununu 
"Next, I'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news.  As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable 
or unfavorable opinion of this person - or if you have never heard of him or her.  Senator John Sununu." (Respondents were 
asked about U.S. REPRESENTATIVE John Sununu from October 2001 to June 2002.  He was elected Senator in November 
2002.) 
 
Statewide Favorable Neutral Unfavorable Don’t Know (N) 
Feb. ‘07 45% 20% 25% 11% (533) 
Sept. ‘06 50 15 26 9 (513) 
July ‘06 54 11 24 11 (499) 
Apr. ‘06 58 14 21 10 (503) 
Feb. ‘06 55 13 23 8 (500) 
Oct. ‘05 51 9 29 10 (509) 
July ‘05 53 6 27 13 (499) 
July ‘04 54 10 25 11 (507) 
Apr. ‘04  54 11 23 11 (539) 
Feb. ‘04 52 11 26 12 (510) 
Oct. ‘03 54 10 23 13 (495) 
June ‘03   48 11 29 11 (513) 
Apr. ‘03 55 9 23 12 (507) 
Feb. ‘03 55 9 29 8 (651) 
June ‘02 52 10 24 14 (639) 
Apr. ‘02 55 7 24 14 (693) 
Feb. ‘02 57 9 21 13 (724) 
Oct. ‘01 63 8 17 12 (681) 
 
 
 
 
Favorability Rating –Carol Shea-Porter 
"Next, I'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news.  As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable 
or unfavorable opinion of this person - or if you have never heard of him or her.  Congresswoman Carol Shea-Porter”  
 
1st C.D. Favorable Neutral Unfavorable Don’t Know (N) 
Feb. ‘07 40% 17% 15% 28% (248) 
Sept. ‘06 16 14 5 65 (266) 
July ‘06 7 7 0 86 (256) 
 
 
 
Favorability Rating – Concord Attorney Paul Hodes 
"Next, I'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news.  As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable 
or unfavorable opinion of this person - or if you have never heard of him or her.  Concord Attorney Paul Hodes.”  
 
2nd C.D. Favorable Neutral Unfavorable Don’t Know (N) 
Feb. ‘07 29% 18% 14% 39% (286) 
Sept. ‘06 11 17 6 66 (248) 
July ‘06 11 9 4 77 (246) 
Apr. ‘06 10 6 4 81 (235) 
Feb. ‘06 10 11 1 78 (232) 
Oct. ‘05 7 7 4 83 (230) 
July ‘04 8 8 2 81 (238) 
Apr. ‘04  6 7 2 86 (271) 
 
 
 
Net Favorability Ratings 
(% Favorable - % Unfavorable) 
  
 Shea-Porter 
 (1st CD) 
Hodes 
(2nd CD) 
Gregg 
(State) 
Sununu 
(State) 
Feb. ‘07 +25% +15% +23% +20% 
Sept. ‘06 +11 +5 +34 +24 
July ‘06 +7 +7 +41 +30 
Apr. 2006 -- +6 +46 +34 
Feb. 2006 -- +9 +44 +32 
Oct. 2005 -- +3 +38 +22 
July 2005 -- -- +43 +26 
July 2004 -- -- +53 +29 
Apr. 2004  -- -- +44 +31 
Feb. 2004 -- -- +53 +26 
Oct. 2003 -- -- +49 +31 
June 2003   -- -- +42 +19 
Apr. 2003 -- -- +48 +32 
Feb. 2003 -- -- +40 +26 
June 2002 -- -- +40 +27 
Apr. 2002 -- -- +44 +31 
Feb. 2002 -- -- +47 +36 
Oct. 2001 -- -- +49 +46 
 
 
 Favorability Rating - Judd Gregg 
 
 Favorable Neutral Unfavorable Don't Know (N) 
STATEWIDE 48% 15% 25% 12% 533 
 
Registered Democrat 31% 23% 41% 5% 116 
Undeclared 47% 15% 27% 11% 225 
Registered Republican 68% 8% 14% 11% 126 
Not registered 40% 18% 13% 29% 64 
 
Democrat 32% 18% 39% 11% 232 
Independent 51% 16% 20% 13% 103 
Republican 66% 11% 12% 11% 190 
 
Liberal 35% 16% 33% 17% 105 
Moderate 46% 15% 30% 10% 248 
Conservative 63% 15% 11% 11% 144 
 
Union household 37% 10% 42% 11% 78 
Non-union 50% 16% 22% 11% 451 
 
5 years or less in NH 31% 17% 16% 36% 55 
6 to 10 years 41% 27% 8% 24% 39 
11 to 20 years 45% 14% 30% 10% 104 
More than 20 years 53% 13% 28% 7% 329 
 
18 to 34 36% 18% 23% 23% 111 
35 to 49 51% 18% 23% 9% 159 
50 to 64 51% 11% 31% 7% 170 
65 and over 54% 14% 24% 9% 80 
 
Male 50% 14% 29% 7% 260 
Female 46% 17% 21% 16% 273 
 
High school or less 50% 17% 21% 12% 129 
Some college 53% 16% 21% 9% 137 
College graduate 49% 15% 22% 14% 170 
Post-graduate 34% 14% 42% 10% 96 
 
Less than $30K 70% 8% 11% 11% 24 
$30K to $60K 45% 9% 32% 14% 85 
$60K to $75K 38% 26% 29% 7% 51 
$75K to $100K 57% 17% 22% 4% 55 
More than $100K 50% 9% 27% 13% 119 
 
Married 49% 15% 25% 11% 360 
Divorced/separated 49% 14% 23% 15% 82 
Never married 42% 19% 27% 12% 88 
 
Protestant 56% 12% 19% 12% 163 
Catholic 50% 19% 23% 8% 205 
Other 36% 14% 35% 16% 154 
 
Attend 1 or more/week  55% 18% 20% 7% 128 
1-2 times a month 54% 9% 27% 11% 65 
Less often 46% 22% 21% 11% 147 
Never 43% 11% 31% 15% 184 
 
Northern NH 39% 20% 27% 14% 48 
Central/Lakes 58% 8% 25% 9% 83 
Connecticut Valley 43% 16% 28% 13% 79 
Massachusetts Border 47% 15% 25% 13% 165 
Seacoast 49% 18% 26% 7% 85 
Greater Manchester 48% 18% 22% 13% 73 
 
1st Cong. District 49% 18% 22% 11% 248 
2nd Cong. District 46% 14% 28% 12% 285 
 
 Favorability Rating - John Sununu 
 
 Favorable Neutral Unfavorable Don't Know (N) 
STATEWIDE 45% 20% 25% 11% 533 
 
Registered Democrat 31% 17% 44% 8% 116 
Undeclared 45% 20% 24% 11% 222 
Registered Republican 65% 18% 9% 9% 127 
Not registered 28% 27% 24% 21% 65 
 
Democrat 29% 22% 41% 9% 231 
Independent 46% 16% 20% 17% 105 
Republican 64% 20% 7% 9% 189 
 
Liberal 32% 18% 36% 15% 105 
Moderate 44% 21% 26% 9% 245 
Conservative 59% 16% 13% 12% 146 
 
Union household 38% 20% 32% 10% 78 
Non-union 46% 20% 24% 11% 451 
 
5 years or less in NH 26% 19% 24% 31% 55 
6 to 10 years 35% 34% 13% 18% 39 
11 to 20 years 34% 23% 29% 14% 103 
More than 20 years 52% 17% 25% 6% 330 
 
18 to 34 35% 20% 24% 21% 112 
35 to 49 41% 26% 23% 11% 158 
50 to 64 51% 17% 25% 7% 170 
65 and over 52% 13% 28% 6% 80 
 
Male 48% 18% 26% 8% 258 
Female 41% 21% 24% 14% 275 
 
High school or less 49% 17% 23% 11% 129 
Some college 46% 17% 25% 12% 139 
College graduate 44% 23% 22% 12% 167 
Post-graduate 37% 21% 33% 8% 97 
 
Less than $30K 51% 11% 28% 9% 24 
$30K to $60K 42% 11% 35% 12% 85 
$60K to $75K 45% 25% 21% 9% 52 
$75K to $100K 47% 14% 26% 12% 56 
More than $100K 41% 21% 24% 14% 119 
 
Married 47% 18% 24% 11% 360 
Divorced/separated 42% 23% 25% 10% 82 
Never married 36% 23% 27% 13% 88 
 
Protestant 48% 21% 19% 12% 165 
Catholic 51% 19% 21% 9% 205 
Other 31% 20% 35% 14% 152 
 
Attend 1 or more/week 49% 18% 24% 9% 129 
1-2 times a month 52% 23% 21% 4% 65 
Less often 44% 21% 20% 15% 148 
Never 40% 19% 29% 11% 182 
 
Northern NH 37% 22% 28% 13% 48 
Central/Lakes 58% 15% 20% 7% 84 
Connecticut Valley 38% 26% 24% 12% 77 
Massachusetts Border 43% 21% 24% 13% 167 
Seacoast 40% 19% 33% 8% 84 
Greater Manchester 51% 15% 20% 14% 73 
 
1st Cong. District 47% 20% 24% 9% 248 
2nd Cong. District 43% 19% 25% 13% 285 
 
 Favorability Rating - Paul Hodes 
 
 Favorable Neutral Unfavorable Don't Know (N) 
STATEWIDE 24% 19% 14% 42% 535 
 
Registered Democrat 46% 19% 6% 28% 116 
Undeclared 23% 22% 10% 45% 225 
Registered Republican 11% 16% 31% 42% 126 
Not registered 11% 18% 11% 59% 65 
 
Democrat 39% 21% 8% 32% 232 
Independent 18% 20% 12% 51% 105 
Republican 10% 16% 25% 49% 190 
 
Liberal 38% 16% 6% 40% 105 
Moderate 30% 21% 11% 39% 248 
Conservative 8% 20% 27% 45% 145 
 
Union household 29% 28% 10% 33% 78 
Non-union 24% 18% 15% 44% 453 
 
5 years or less in NH 19% 28% 7% 47% 55 
6 to 10 years 30% 26% 3% 41% 39 
11 to 20 years 19% 15% 18% 47% 105 
More than 20 years 27% 18% 16% 40% 330 
 
18 to 34 14% 21% 13% 52% 112 
35 to 49 24% 18% 14% 43% 159 
50 to 64 31% 18% 13% 37% 170 
65 and over 25% 18% 17% 40% 80 
 
Male 26% 21% 16% 38% 260 
Female 23% 18% 13% 46% 275 
 
High school or less 20% 19% 16% 45% 129 
Some college 17% 19% 12% 53% 139 
College graduate 28% 19% 18% 36% 170 
Post-graduate 35% 20% 11% 35% 96 
 
Less than $30K 24% 12% 6% 58% 24 
$30K to $60K 26% 15% 10% 49% 85 
$60K to $75K 36% 16% 17% 31% 52 
$75K to $100K 36% 14% 3% 47% 55 
More than $100K 26% 21% 14% 39% 119 
 
Married 27% 19% 14% 40% 362 
Divorced/separated 26% 15% 12% 47% 82 
Never married 15% 23% 15% 48% 88 
 
Protestant 24% 14% 16% 46% 164 
Catholic 23% 21% 14% 42% 205 
Other 27% 21% 12% 40% 155 
 
Attend 1 or more/week 27% 19% 13% 41% 128 
1-2 times a month 26% 16% 13% 45% 65 
Less often 19% 20% 15% 46% 148 
Never 27% 19% 14% 40% 185 
 
Northern NH 18% 24% 13% 45% 48 
Central/Lakes 28% 19% 17% 36% 84 
Connecticut Valley 34% 22% 14% 30% 79 
Massachusetts Border 22% 15% 12% 51% 166 
Seacoast 20% 32% 15% 34% 85 
Greater Manchester 25% 10% 17% 48% 73 
 
1st Cong. District 19% 21% 14% 45% 249 
2nd Cong. District 29% 18% 14% 39% 286 
 
 Favorability Rating - Carol Shea-Porter 
 
 Favorable Neutral Unfavorable Don't Know (N) 
STATEWIDE 32% 19% 11% 37% 535 
 
Registered Democrat 56% 14% 5% 26% 116 
Undeclared 31% 21% 8% 40% 224 
Registered Republican 16% 18% 27% 38% 127 
Not registered 21% 20% 11% 48% 65 
 
Democrat 50% 19% 3% 28% 231 
Independent 27% 19% 12% 43% 105 
Republican 12% 20% 24% 44% 191 
 
Liberal 55% 15% 5% 25% 105 
Moderate 32% 20% 9% 40% 247 
Conservative 17% 20% 25% 38% 146 
 
Union household 41% 17% 11% 31% 78 
Non-union 30% 19% 13% 38% 453 
 
5 years or less in NH 34% 19% 9% 38% 55 
6 to 10 years 37% 16% 6% 41% 39 
11 to 20 years 22% 17% 16% 45% 105 
More than 20 years 33% 20% 13% 34% 330 
 
18 to 34 27% 18% 14% 42% 112 
35 to 49 33% 20% 12% 35% 160 
50 to 64 33% 21% 10% 36% 170 
65 and over 31% 13% 18% 38% 80 
 
Male 27% 21% 14% 38% 260 
Female 36% 17% 10% 37% 275 
 
High school or less 26% 18% 12% 44% 129 
Some college 27% 19% 12% 42% 139 
College graduate 36% 18% 13% 32% 169 
Post-graduate 38% 22% 10% 30% 97 
 
Less than $30K 38% 13% 18% 31% 24 
$30K to $60K 32% 18% 8% 42% 85 
$60K to $75K 32% 16% 12% 40% 52 
$75K to $100K 33% 8% 9% 49% 56 
More than $100K 38% 25% 9% 28% 119 
 
Married 32% 19% 13% 36% 362 
Divorced/separated 36% 16% 9% 40% 82 
Never married 24% 21% 12% 43% 88 
 
Protestant 30% 18% 12% 40% 165 
Catholic 33% 19% 14% 34% 205 
Other 31% 20% 10% 39% 154 
 
Attend 1 or more/week 28% 22% 14% 37% 129 
1-2 times a month 29% 24% 14% 33% 65 
Less often 32% 18% 8% 41% 148 
Never 35% 15% 13% 36% 184 
 
Northern NH 36% 8% 11% 45% 48 
Central/Lakes 37% 21% 12% 30% 84 
Connecticut Valley 16% 27% 11% 47% 79 
Massachusetts Border 24% 18% 11% 47% 167 
Seacoast 48% 21% 15% 15% 84 
Greater Manchester 39% 14% 14% 33% 73 
 
1st Cong. District 40% 17% 15% 28% 248 
2nd Cong. District 24% 21% 10% 45% 287 


Gregg & Sununu Favorability Slides 2/23/2007

UNH Scholars' Repository

 THE WMUR GRANITE STATE POLL THE UNIVERSITY OF NEW HAMPSHIRE   GREGG & SUNUNU FAVORABILITY SLIDE  By: Andrew E. Smith, Ph.D.  603/862-2226 FOR RELEASE  UNH Survey Center  February 23, 2007  www.unh.edu/survey-center  DURHAM, NH – Republican Senators John Sununu and Judd Gregg have seen their popularity in the Granite State drop in the wake of the 2006 election.  These findings are based on the latest Granite State Poll,?  conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center.  The Granite State Poll is sponsored by WMUR-TV, Manchester.  Five hundred thirty-eight (538) randomly selected New Hampshire adults were interviewed by telephone between February 1 and February 5, 2007.  The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/-4.2 percent   Two hundred fifty (250) respondents lived in New Hampshire’s 1st Congressional District (margin of sampling error = +/-6.2%) and 288 lived in the 2nd District (margin of sampling error = +/-5.8%).  Favorability Ratings of NH Senators John Sununu, New Hampshire’s junior Senator is up for re-election in 2008.  He is being targeted by national and state Democrats, who see him as vulnerable because of his ties to the Bush administration and because of the big gains Democrats made in New Hampshire in 2006.  Sununu’s favorability ratings have dropped somewhat in recent months and he is now viewed favorably by only 45 percent of New Hampshire adults, 25 percent having an unfavorable opinion of him, 20 percent are neutral and 11 percent don’t know enough to say.  Sununu’s net favorability rating is +20 percent, slightly down from +24% in September and at the lowest it has been since June 2003.  “A ten percentage point drop in favorability ratings in the past year should be a wake-up call for Sununu ,” said Andrew Smith, Director of the UNH Survey Center.  “The 2006 election showed that Republican candidates must work harder to get their base to the polls in order to be successful.  At the same time, perceived vulnerability from lower favorability ratings could attract stronger Democratic opponents.”  Sununu is viewed most favorably by Republicans and conservatives, and residents of Central New Hampshire.  He is least popular among Democrats and liberals.                                                            ?  We ask that this copyrighted information be referred to as the Granite State Poll, sponsored by WMUR-TV. 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%Oct.'01Feb.'02Apr.'02June'02Feb.'03Apr.'03July'03Oct.'03Feb.'04Apr.'04July'04July'05Oct.'05Feb'06Apr.'06July'06Sep.'06Feb.'07Favorable UnfavorableFavorability Ratings – Senator John Sununu  Senator Judd Gregg remains slightly more popular than Sununu -- 48 percent of New Hampshire adults have a favorable opinion of Gregg, 25 percent have an unfavorable opinion, 15 percent are neutral and 12 percent don’t know enough to say.  Gregg’s net favorability rating stands at +23 percent – a significant decline from +34 percent in September and is at the lowest point since the Granite State Poll began in 2001.     NH 1st District In New Hampshire’s 1st Congressional District, Democrat Carol Shea-Porter pulled off a stunning upset of incumbent Jeb Bradley in November.  Shea-Porter was largely unknown to the 1st District during the election and benefited from a steep decline in Republican turnout.  Since her election, her favorability ratings have increased dramatically in the district.  Currently, 40 percent of 1st District adults have a favorable opinion of Shea-Porter, 15 percent have an unfavorable opinion of her, 17 percent are neutral, and 28 percent say they don’t know enough about her to say.  Shea-Porter’s net favorability rating is a solid +25 percent, up from +11 percent in September.    Shea-Porter’s approval ratings are similar to those of Jeb Bradley soon after he began his first term  In February, 2003, 39 percent of 1st District residents had a favorable opinion of Jeb Bradley, 9 percent had an unfavorable opinion of him, 14 percent were neutral, and 38 did not know enough about him to say.  “The 1st District is the more Republican of New Hampshire’s two Congressional districts and she will have to continue to improve her popularity over the coming year to win re-election,” said Andrew Smith, Director of the UNH Survey Center.  0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%Oct.'01Feb.'02Apr.'02June'02Feb.'03Apr.'03July'03Oct.'03Feb.'04Apr.'04July'04July'05Oct.'05Feb'06Apr.'06July'06Sep.'06Feb.'07Favorable UnfavorableFavorability Ratings – Carol Shea-Porter NH 1st District 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%July '06 Sep. '06 Feb. '07Favorable UnfavorableFavorability Ratings – Senator Judd Gregg  NH 2nd District In the 2nd District, Democrat Paul Hodes upset 5 term Republican incumbent Charley Bass in a re-match of their 2004 race, benefiting from anti-Bush sentiment and low Republican turnout in the District.  Hodes is considerably less well known in the 2nd District than Shea-Porter is in the 1st.  Currently, only 29 percent of  2nd District residents say they have a favorable opinion of Hodes, 14 percent have an unfavorable opinion of him, 18 percent are neutral, and 39 percent say they know too little about him to say.   Hodes’ net favorability rating is +15 percent, up from +5% in September.        Granite State Poll Methodology These findings are based on the latest Granite State Poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center.  The Granite State Poll is sponsored by WMUR-TV, Manchester.  Five hundred thirty-eight (538) randomly selected New Hampshire adults were interviewed by telephone between February 1 and February 5, 2007.  The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/-4.2 percent.  Two hundred fifty (250) respondents lived in New Hampshire’s 1st Congressional District (margin of sampling error = +/-6.2%) and 288 lived in the 2nd District (margin of sampling error = +/-5.8%).  Results reported for other subgroups have potential for somewhat larger variation than those for the entire population.   The data have been weighted to adjust for numbers of adults and telephone lines within households, respondent sex, and region of the state.  In addition to potential sampling error, all surveys have other potential sources of non-sampling error including question order effects, question wording effects, and non-response.   0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%Apr. '04 July '04 July '05 Oct. '05 Feb '06 Apr. '06 July '06 Sep. '06 Feb. '07Favorable UnfavorableFavorability Ratings – Paul Hodes NH 2nd District   Favorability Rating – U.S. Senator Judd Gregg "Next, I'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news.  As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of this person - or if you have never heard of him or her.  Senator Judd Gregg."  Statewide Favorable Neutral Unfavorable Don’t Know (N) Feb. ‘07 48% 15% 25% 12% (533) Sept. ‘06 53 15 19 13 (513) July ‘06 58 11 17 14 (503) Apr. ‘06 61 12 15 13 (505) Feb. ‘06 59 14 15 12 (501) Oct. ‘05 58 10 20 12 (510) July ‘05 61 8 18 13 (501) July ‘04 66 8 13 12 (508) Apr. ‘04  59 11 15 15 (541) Feb. ‘04 63 12 10 15 (509) Oct. ‘03 63 8 14 16 (496) June ‘03   58 10 16 16 (514) Apr. ‘03 61 8 13 18 (507) Feb. ‘03 58 8 18 16 (652) June ‘02 58 10 17 15 (638) Apr. ‘02 60 6 16 18 (691) Feb. ‘02 62 9 15 14 (724) Oct. ‘01 62 9 13 16 (679)    Favorability Rating – U.S. Senator John Sununu "Next, I'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news.  As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of this person - or if you have never heard of him or her.  Senator John Sununu." (Respondents were asked about U.S. REPRESENTATIVE John Sununu from October 2001 to June 2002.  He was elected Senator in November 2002.)  Statewide Favorable Neutral Unfavorable Don’t Know (N) Feb. ‘07 45% 20% 25% 11% (533) Sept. ‘06 50 15 26 9 (513) July ‘06 54 11 24 11 (499) Apr. ‘06 58 14 21 10 (503) Feb. ‘06 55 13 23 8 (500) Oct. ‘05 51 9 29 10 (509) July ‘05 53 6 27 13 (499) July ‘04 54 10 25 11 (507) Apr. ‘04  54 11 23 11 (539) Feb. ‘04 52 11 26 12 (510) Oct. ‘03 54 10 23 13 (495) June ‘03   48 11 29 11 (513) Apr. ‘03 55 9 23 12 (507) Feb. ‘03 55 9 29 8 (651) June ‘02 52 10 24 14 (639) Apr. ‘02 55 7 24 14 (693) Feb. ‘02 57 9 21 13 (724) Oct. ‘01 63 8 17 12 (681)     Favorability Rating –Carol Shea-Porter "Next, I'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news.  As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of this person - or if you have never heard of him or her.  Congresswoman Carol Shea-Porter”   1st C.D. Favorable Neutral Unfavorable Don’t Know (N) Feb. ‘07 40% 17% 15% 28% (248) Sept. ‘06 16 14 5 65 (266) July ‘06 7 7 0 86 (256)    Favorability Rating – Concord Attorney Paul Hodes "Next, I'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news.  As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of this person - or if you have never heard of him or her.  Concord Attorney Paul Hodes.”   2nd C.D. Favorable Neutral Unfavorable Don’t Know (N) Feb. ‘07 29% 18% 14% 39% (286) Sept. ‘06 11 17 6 66 (248) July ‘06 11 9 4 77 (246) Apr. ‘06 10 6 4 81 (235) Feb. ‘06 10 11 1 78 (232) Oct. ‘05 7 7 4 83 (230) July ‘04 8 8 2 81 (238) Apr. ‘04  6 7 2 86 (271)    Net Favorability Ratings (% Favorable - % Unfavorable)    Shea-Porter  (1st CD) Hodes (2nd CD) Gregg (State) Sununu (State) Feb. ‘07 +25% +15% +23% +20% Sept. ‘06 +11 +5 +34 +24 July ‘06 +7 +7 +41 +30 Apr. 2006 -- +6 +46 +34 Feb. 2006 -- +9 +44 +32 Oct. 2005 -- +3 +38 +22 July 2005 -- -- +43 +26 July 2004 -- -- +53 +29 Apr. 2004  -- -- +44 +31 Feb. 2004 -- -- +53 +26 Oct. 2003 -- -- +49 +31 June 2003   -- -- +42 +19 Apr. 2003 -- -- +48 +32 Feb. 2003 -- -- +40 +26 June 2002 -- -- +40 +27 Apr. 2002 -- -- +44 +31 Feb. 2002 -- -- +47 +36 Oct. 2001 -- -- +49 +46    Favorability Rating - Judd Gregg   Favorable Neutral Unfavorable Don't Know (N) STATEWIDE 48% 15% 25% 12% 533  Registered Democrat 31% 23% 41% 5% 116 Undeclared 47% 15% 27% 11% 225 Registered Republican 68% 8% 14% 11% 126 Not registered 40% 18% 13% 29% 64  Democrat 32% 18% 39% 11% 232 Independent 51% 16% 20% 13% 103 Republican 66% 11% 12% 11% 190  Liberal 35% 16% 33% 17% 105 Moderate 46% 15% 30% 10% 248 Conservative 63% 15% 11% 11% 144  Union household 37% 10% 42% 11% 78 Non-union 50% 16% 22% 11% 451  5 years or less in NH 31% 17% 16% 36% 55 6 to 10 years 41% 27% 8% 24% 39 11 to 20 years 45% 14% 30% 10% 104 More than 20 years 53% 13% 28% 7% 329  18 to 34 36% 18% 23% 23% 111 35 to 49 51% 18% 23% 9% 159 50 to 64 51% 11% 31% 7% 170 65 and over 54% 14% 24% 9% 80  Male 50% 14% 29% 7% 260 Female 46% 17% 21% 16% 273  High school or less 50% 17% 21% 12% 129 Some college 53% 16% 21% 9% 137 College graduate 49% 15% 22% 14% 170 Post-graduate 34% 14% 42% 10% 96  Less than $30K 70% 8% 11% 11% 24 $30K to $60K 45% 9% 32% 14% 85 $60K to $75K 38% 26% 29% 7% 51 $75K to $100K 57% 17% 22% 4% 55 More than $100K 50% 9% 27% 13% 119  Married 49% 15% 25% 11% 360 Divorced/separated 49% 14% 23% 15% 82 Never married 42% 19% 27% 12% 88  Protestant 56% 12% 19% 12% 163 Catholic 50% 19% 23% 8% 205 Other 36% 14% 35% 16% 154  Attend 1 or more/week  55% 18% 20% 7% 128 1-2 times a month 54% 9% 27% 11% 65 Less often 46% 22% 21% 11% 147 Never 43% 11% 31% 15% 184  Northern NH 39% 20% 27% 14% 48 Central/Lakes 58% 8% 25% 9% 83 Connecticut Valley 43% 16% 28% 13% 79 Massachusetts Border 47% 15% 25% 13% 165 Seacoast 49% 18% 26% 7% 85 Greater Manchester 48% 18% 22% 13% 73  1st Cong. District 49% 18% 22% 11% 248 2nd Cong. District 46% 14% 28% 12% 285   Favorability Rating - John Sununu   Favorable Neutral Unfavorable Don't Know (N) STATEWIDE 45% 20% 25% 11% 533  Registered Democrat 31% 17% 44% 8% 116 Undeclared 45% 20% 24% 11% 222 Registered Republican 65% 18% 9% 9% 127 Not registered 28% 27% 24% 21% 65  Democrat 29% 22% 41% 9% 231 Independent 46% 16% 20% 17% 105 Republican 64% 20% 7% 9% 189  Liberal 32% 18% 36% 15% 105 Moderate 44% 21% 26% 9% 245 Conservative 59% 16% 13% 12% 146  Union household 38% 20% 32% 10% 78 Non-union 46% 20% 24% 11% 451  5 years or less in NH 26% 19% 24% 31% 55 6 to 10 years 35% 34% 13% 18% 39 11 to 20 years 34% 23% 29% 14% 103 More than 20 years 52% 17% 25% 6% 330  18 to 34 35% 20% 24% 21% 112 35 to 49 41% 26% 23% 11% 158 50 to 64 51% 17% 25% 7% 170 65 and over 52% 13% 28% 6% 80  Male 48% 18% 26% 8% 258 Female 41% 21% 24% 14% 275  High school or less 49% 17% 23% 11% 129 Some college 46% 17% 25% 12% 139 College graduate 44% 23% 22% 12% 167 Post-graduate 37% 21% 33% 8% 97  Less than $30K 51% 11% 28% 9% 24 $30K to $60K 42% 11% 35% 12% 85 $60K to $75K 45% 25% 21% 9% 52 $75K to $100K 47% 14% 26% 12% 56 More than $100K 41% 21% 24% 14% 119  Married 47% 18% 24% 11% 360 Divorced/separated 42% 23% 25% 10% 82 Never married 36% 23% 27% 13% 88  Protestant 48% 21% 19% 12% 165 Catholic 51% 19% 21% 9% 205 Other 31% 20% 35% 14% 152  Attend 1 or more/week 49% 18% 24% 9% 129 1-2 times a month 52% 23% 21% 4% 65 Less often 44% 21% 20% 15% 148 Never 40% 19% 29% 11% 182  Northern NH 37% 22% 28% 13% 48 Central/Lakes 58% 15% 20% 7% 84 Connecticut Valley 38% 26% 24% 12% 77 Massachusetts Border 43% 21% 24% 13% 167 Seacoast 40% 19% 33% 8% 84 Greater Manchester 51% 15% 20% 14% 73  1st Cong. District 47% 20% 24% 9% 248 2nd Cong. District 43% 19% 25% 13% 285   Favorability Rating - Paul Hodes   Favorable Neutral Unfavorable Don't Know (N) STATEWIDE 24% 19% 14% 42% 535  Registered Democrat 46% 19% 6% 28% 116 Undeclared 23% 22% 10% 45% 225 Registered Republican 11% 16% 31% 42% 126 Not registered 11% 18% 11% 59% 65  Democrat 39% 21% 8% 32% 232 Independent 18% 20% 12% 51% 105 Republican 10% 16% 25% 49% 190  Liberal 38% 16% 6% 40% 105 Moderate 30% 21% 11% 39% 248 Conservative 8% 20% 27% 45% 145  Union household 29% 28% 10% 33% 78 Non-union 24% 18% 15% 44% 453  5 years or less in NH 19% 28% 7% 47% 55 6 to 10 years 30% 26% 3% 41% 39 11 to 20 years 19% 15% 18% 47% 105 More than 20 years 27% 18% 16% 40% 330  18 to 34 14% 21% 13% 52% 112 35 to 49 24% 18% 14% 43% 159 50 to 64 31% 18% 13% 37% 170 65 and over 25% 18% 17% 40% 80  Male 26% 21% 16% 38% 260 Female 23% 18% 13% 46% 275  High school or less 20% 19% 16% 45% 129 Some college 17% 19% 12% 53% 139 College graduate 28% 19% 18% 36% 170 Post-graduate 35% 20% 11% 35% 96  Less than $30K 24% 12% 6% 58% 24 $30K to $60K 26% 15% 10% 49% 85 $60K to $75K 36% 16% 17% 31% 52 $75K to $100K 36% 14% 3% 47% 55 More than $100K 26% 21% 14% 39% 119  Married 27% 19% 14% 40% 362 Divorced/separated 26% 15% 12% 47% 82 Never married 15% 23% 15% 48% 88  Protestant 24% 14% 16% 46% 164 Catholic 23% 21% 14% 42% 205 Other 27% 21% 12% 40% 155  Attend 1 or more/week 27% 19% 13% 41% 128 1-2 times a month 26% 16% 13% 45% 65 Less often 19% 20% 15% 46% 148 Never 27% 19% 14% 40% 185  Northern NH 18% 24% 13% 45% 48 Central/Lakes 28% 19% 17% 36% 84 Connecticut Valley 34% 22% 14% 30% 79 Massachusetts Border 22% 15% 12% 51% 166 Seacoast 20% 32% 15% 34% 85 Greater Manchester 25% 10% 17% 48% 73  1st Cong. District 19% 21% 14% 45% 249 2nd Cong. District 29% 18% 14% 39% 286   Favorability Rating - Carol Shea-Porter   Favorable Neutral Unfavorable Don't Know (N) STATEWIDE 32% 19% 11% 37% 535  Registered Democrat 56% 14% 5% 26% 116 Undeclared 31% 21% 8% 40% 224 Registered Republican 16% 18% 27% 38% 127 Not registered 21% 20% 11% 48% 65  Democrat 50% 19% 3% 28% 231 Independent 27% 19% 12% 43% 105 Republican 12% 20% 24% 44% 191  Liberal 55% 15% 5% 25% 105 Moderate 32% 20% 9% 40% 247 Conservative 17% 20% 25% 38% 146  Union household 41% 17% 11% 31% 78 Non-union 30% 19% 13% 38% 453  5 years or less in NH 34% 19% 9% 38% 55 6 to 10 years 37% 16% 6% 41% 39 11 to 20 years 22% 17% 16% 45% 105 More than 20 years 33% 20% 13% 34% 330  18 to 34 27% 18% 14% 42% 112 35 to 49 33% 20% 12% 35% 160 50 to 64 33% 21% 10% 36% 170 65 and over 31% 13% 18% 38% 80  Male 27% 21% 14% 38% 260 Female 36% 17% 10% 37% 275  High school or less 26% 18% 12% 44% 129 Some college 27% 19% 12% 42% 139 College graduate 36% 18% 13% 32% 169 Post-graduate 38% 22% 10% 30% 97  Less than $30K 38% 13% 18% 31% 24 $30K to $60K 32% 18% 8% 42% 85 $60K to $75K 32% 16% 12% 40% 52 $75K to $100K 33% 8% 9% 49% 56 More than $100K 38% 25% 9% 28% 119  Married 32% 19% 13% 36% 362 Divorced/separated 36% 16% 9% 40% 82 Never married 24% 21% 12% 43% 88  Protestant 30% 18% 12% 40% 165 Catholic 33% 19% 14% 34% 205 Other 31% 20% 10% 39% 154  Attend 1 or more/week 28% 22% 14% 37% 129 1-2 times a month 29% 24% 14% 33% 65 Less often 32% 18% 8% 41% 148 Never 35% 15% 13% 36% 184  Northern NH 36% 8% 11% 45% 48 Central/Lakes 37% 21% 12% 30% 84 Connecticut Valley 16% 27% 11% 47% 79 Massachusetts Border 24% 18% 11% 47% 167 Seacoast 48% 21% 15% 15% 84 Greater Manchester 39% 14% 14% 33% 73  1st Cong. District 40% 17% 15% 28% 248 2nd Cong. District 24% 21% 10% 45% 287 

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Gregg & Sununu Favorability Slides 2/23/2007

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