One year after the ‚Äúsurge‚Äù by U.S. troops in Iraq, and despite a decrease in American and Iraqi casualties, New Hampshire residents are strongly opposed to the war and are pessimistic about U.S. chances of eventual victory

Survey Center, UNH

English

University of New Hampshire

GRANITE STATE POLL 
THE UNIVERSITY OF NEW HAMPSHIRE 
 
August 13, 2008 
 
YEAR AFTER SURGE, NH SEES NO LIGHT AT END OF IRAQ TUNNEL 
 
By: Andrew E. Smith, Ph.D. 
 UNH Survey Center 
 603/862-2226  
 www.unh.edu/survey-center 
 
DURHAM, NH – One year after the “surge” by U.S. troops in Iraq, and despite a decrease in American and Iraqi casualties, 
New Hampshire residents are strongly opposed to the war and are pessimistic about U.S. chances of eventual victory. 
 
These findings are based on the latest Granite State Poll,∗ conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center.  
Five hundred (519) randomly selected New Hampshire adults were interviewed by telephone between July 11 and July 20, 
2008.  The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/-4.3 percent. 
 
 
Just over a year ago, the Bush Administration made a significant change in its Iraq policy by committing new troops and 
aggressively working to pacify the country.  This policy, known as the “surge”, has been, according to many observers, 
successful in reducing U.S. and Iraqi casualties and in stabilizing Iraq.  But in New Hampshire, the Bush Administration has 
not gotten any political benefit for any improvement the surge may have brought to Iraq.  Only 28% of Granite State adults 
approve of the way Bush has handled the situation in Iraq, 69% disapprove, and 3% are neutral.  These numbers have been 
essentially unchanged since the surge was undertaken. 
 
 
 
 
                                                           
∗ We ask that this copyrighted information be referred to as the Granite State Poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. 
Bush Approval: Handling Situation in Iraq 
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Approve Disapprove
Support for the U.S. having gone into Iraq in the first place remains low.  Currently, 37% of Granite Staters support the U.S. 
having gone to war in Iraq, 57% oppose the U.S. having gone to war, and 6% are neutral. But it is important to note that 
solid majorities of Republicans (67%) and conservatives (65%) continue to support the war in Iraq. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Troop Pullout From Iraq 
 
There has been considerable debate between John McCain and Barack Obama about when and how American troops should 
be removed from Iraq with Obama pledging to remove troops within 16 months of taking office and McCain saying he 
would keep troops in Iraq until the country is stable.  When initially asked, people in New Hampshire are divided over which 
policy they support with 49% saying that troops should be withdrawn within two years and 42% saying troops should be 
kept in Iraq until the country is stable, and 9% saying they are unsure. 
 
And while the public is divided about the desired policy, there is also considerable difference in the intensity which these 
positions are held.  Most of those respondents who want U.S. troops withdrawn within two years say they would be upset if 
the next president decided to keep troops in Iraq until the country is stable while far fewer of those who support keeping the 
troops in Iraq until the country is stable say they would be upset if troops were withdrawn.  Forty percent of all New 
Hampshire adults say they would be upset if troops were kept in Iraq until the country is stable while only 24% would be 
upset if troops were withdrawn in the next 2 years.  A considerable portion of the electorate (36%) is unengaged on the issue 
with 9% have no opinion and another 27% saying they would not be upset if their desired position were not followed. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Support for War In Iraq 
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Support Oppose
 
 
 
Can the US Win? 
 
There has been a slight uptick in the percentage of New Hampshire adults who think the U.S. can win the war in Iraq.  In the 
most recent Granite State Poll, 38% believe the US can win the war in Iraq, 52% think the US cannot win the war, and 10% 
don’t know.  One year ago, only 32% believed the U.S. could win the war in Iraq.  Republicans are particularly likely to 
think the U.S. can win in Iraq -- 64% believe the US can win -- while only 35% of Independents and 17% of Democrats 
think the US can win.  
 
 
Upset If Your Preferred Iraq Policy Were Not Followed? 
24%
40%
27%
9%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
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Want troops to stay until Iraq is
stable
Want troops withdrawn in 2
years
Unengaged
Upset if this does not happen Would not be upset Don't Know / No Opinion
Percent Believing US Can Win by Party ID 
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April '07 July '07 Sep. '07 Feb. '08 Apr. '08 July '08
Democrats Republicans Independents ALL NH Adults
Granite State Poll Methodology 
 
Five hundred (519) randomly selected New Hampshire adults were interviewed by telephone between July 11 and July 20, 
2008.  The sample was selected at random from all household in New Hampshire with a land-line telephone and a 
respondent was selected at random within each household. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/-4.3 percent.    
 
The data have been weighted to adjust for numbers of adults and telephone lines within households, respondent sex, and 
region of the state.  In addition to potential sampling error, all surveys have other potential sources of non-sampling error 
including question order effects, question wording effects, and non-response. 
 
 
 
 Presidential Approval - Handling of Situation in Iraq 
 
"Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling the situation with Iraq?" 
 
 Approve Neutral Disapprove (N) 
July '08 28% 3% 69% (518) 
Apr. '08 31% 4% 65% (497) 
Feb. ‘08 26% 3% 70% (551) 
Sep. ‘07 29% 3% 68% (508) 
July ‘07   21% 4% 74% (521) 
Apr. ‘07 26% 3% 71% (512) 
Feb. ‘07 25% 2% 72% (527) 
Sept. ‘06 34% 3% 62% (511) 
July ‘06 36% 6% 57% (499) 
Apr. ‘06 29% 4% 67% (501) 
Feb. ‘06 39% 3% 59% (498) 
Oct. ‘05 38% 2% 60% (506) 
July ‘05 45% 3% 51% (499) 
Apr. ‘05 45% 3% 52% (491) 
Feb. ‘05 47% 3% 50% (535) 
July ‘04 42% 3% 55% (501) 
Apr. ‘04 49% 4% 47% (540) 
Feb. ‘04 44% 3% 53% (509) 
Oct. ‘03 54% 3% 42% (500) 
June ‘03 64% 4% 32% (513) 
Apr. ‘03 79% 2% 18% (503) 
Feb. ‘03 56% 7% 37% (646) 
 
 
 
Support for War in Iraq 
 
“Do you support or oppose the United States having gone to war with Iraq?” 
 
 Support Neutral Oppose (N) 
July '08 37% 6% 57% (511) 
Apr. '08 40% 3% 57% (498) 
Feb. ‘08 38% 5% 57% (548) 
Sep. ‘07 40% 6% 54% (506) 
July ‘07 35% 6% 59% (516) 
Apr. ‘07 37% 5% 58% (510) 
Feb. ‘07 40% 5% 55% (525) 
Sept. ‘06 42% 4% 54% (510) 
July ‘06 47% 6% 47% (500) 
Apr. ‘06 46% 5% 49% (496) 
Feb. ‘06 47% 5% 48% (500) 
Oct. ‘05 45% 4% 50% (502) 
July ‘05 48% 5% 48% (493) 
Apr. ‘05 52% 3% 45% (489) 
Feb. ‘05 47% 6% 47% (537) 
July ‘04 47% 6% 47% (498) 
Apr. ‘04 59% 4% 37% (536) 
Feb. ‘04 54% 3% 33% (509) 
Oct. ‘03 65% 5% 30% (496) 
June ‘03 69% 4% 20% (513) 
Apr. ‘03 77% 4% 20% (506) 
 
 
Position on Troops in Iraq 
 
“Which would you like the next president of the United States to do in Iraq:  [ROTATE RESPONSES 1 & 2] Keep troops 
there until Iraq is relatively stable politically, even if it takes four years or more, or take steps to remove most U.S. troops 
from Iraq within two years of taking office, or don’t you have an opinion on this?” 
 
   Percent 
  Keep troops in Iraq until stable 42% 
  Remove troops within two years 49% 
  Don’t know 9% 
  (N=) (514) 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Upset if Next President Does Not Take Your Position on Iraq? 
 
“Suppose the next president decided to (take steps to remove most U.S. troops from Iraq within two years of taking office / 
keep troops in Iraq until the country is relatively stable politically, even if it takes four years or more), would you be very 
upset … somewhat upset … not too upset … or not upset at all?” 
 
  Percent 
 Upset if troops removed 24% 
 Not upset if troops removed 18% 
 Don’t know 9% 
 Not upset if troops kept until stable 9% 
 Upset if troops kept until stable 40% 
 (N=) (514) 
 
 
 
Can US Win in Iraq? 
 
“Do you think the United States can win or cannot win the war in Iraq?” 
 
  
Can Win 
Cannot 
Win 
Don’t 
Know 
 
(N) 
July '08 38% 52% 10% (511) 
Apr. '08 34% 56% 10% (495) 
Feb. ‘08 35% 53% 12% (544) 
Sep. ‘07 32% 55% 13% (503) 
July ‘07 32% 57% 11% (504) 
Apr. ‘07 35% 55% 10% (512) 
 
Presidential Approval Rating - Iraq 
 
 Approve Neutral Disapprove (N=) 
STATEWIDE 28% 3% 69% 518 
 
Registered Democrat 8% 2% 91% 128 
Undeclared 26% 1% 73% 202 
Registered Republican 50% 7% 43% 135 
Not registered 24% 5% 71% 49 
 
Democrat 5% 2% 93% 205 
Independent 16% 1% 83% 80 
Republican 56% 5% 38% 202 
 
Liberal 5% 1% 94% 116 
Moderate 19% 4% 77% 203 
Conservative 57% 4% 39% 155 
 
Union household 21% 1% 78% 69 
Non-union 30% 3% 67% 425 
 
5 years or less in NH 26% 1% 73% 45 
6 to 10 years 39% 0% 61% 36 
11 to 20 years 27% 2% 71% 89 
More than 20 years 28% 4% 68% 312 
 
18 to 34 21% 3% 76% 59 
35 to 49 31% 1% 68% 120 
50 to 64 26% 5% 69% 194 
65 and over 35% 4% 61% 101 
 
Male 35% 3% 62% 249 
Female 21% 4% 75% 268 
 
High school or less 26% 5% 69% 113 
Some college 30% 6% 64% 114 
College graduate 31% 2% 68% 157 
Post-graduate 26% 0% 74% 109 
 
Less than $30K 26% 6% 68% 48 
$30K to $60K 32% 1% 67% 74 
$60K to $75K 29% 2% 69% 54 
$75K to $100K 36% 1% 63% 65 
More than $100K 25% 2% 73% 122 
 
Married 31% 2% 67% 325 
Divorced/separated 24% 7% 68% 92 
Never married 22% 3% 75% 76 
 
Protestant 36% 3% 61% 175 
Catholic 32% 2% 66% 171 
Other 14% 5% 80% 122 
 
Attend services 1 or more/week 34% 2% 64% 127 
1-2 times a month 40% 3% 56% 59 
Less often 27% 3% 70% 145 
Never 21% 5% 74% 149 
 
North Country 28% 15% 58% 47 
Central/Lakes 23% 1% 75% 86 
Connecticut Valley 26% 3% 71% 73 
Mass Border 30% 2% 68% 156 
Seacoast 34% 2% 63% 81 
Manchester Area 22% 2% 76% 75 
 
1st Cong. District 29% 4% 67% 258 
2nd Cong. District 26% 3% 71% 259 
 
 
 
Support / Oppose US War in Iraq 
 
 Support Neutral Oppose (N=) 
STATEWIDE 37% 6% 57% 511 
 
Registered Democrat 10% 5% 85% 124 
Undeclared 36% 6% 58% 200 
Registered Republican 63% 8% 29% 134 
Not registered 39% 9% 52% 48 
 
Democrat 13% 4% 83% 200 
Independent 26% 10% 64% 79 
Republican 67% 8% 25% 201 
 
Liberal 11% 6% 83% 114 
Moderate 33% 7% 59% 201 
Conservative 65% 6% 29% 153 
 
Union household 30% 2% 68% 67 
Non-union 39% 7% 54% 420 
 
5 years or less in NH 35% 1% 64% 45 
6 to 10 years 43% 6% 51% 36 
11 to 20 years 36% 5% 60% 86 
More than 20 years 39% 8% 53% 308 
 
18 to 34 41% 8% 51% 56 
35 to 49 48% 9% 43% 119 
50 to 64 34% 5% 61% 191 
65 and over 35% 6% 59% 101 
 
Male 44% 4% 51% 247 
Female 30% 9% 62% 264 
 
High school or less 42% 7% 52% 113 
Some college 36% 9% 55% 112 
College graduate 43% 8% 49% 154 
Post-graduate 27% 2% 71% 108 
 
Less than $30K 37% 7% 56% 48 
$30K to $60K 44% 3% 53% 74 
$60K to $75K 34% 4% 63% 53 
$75K to $100K 46% 7% 46% 63 
More than $100K 39% 6% 54% 122 
 
Married 37% 5% 59% 321 
Divorced/separated 35% 11% 53% 91 
Never married 41% 9% 50% 75 
 
Protestant 42% 6% 52% 173 
Catholic 44% 5% 51% 168 
Other 26% 9% 65% 121 
 
Attend services 1 or more/week 37% 7% 57% 126 
1-2 times a month 46% 7% 47% 59 
Less often 43% 4% 54% 142 
Never 33% 9% 58% 147 
 
North Country 29% 14% 58% 47 
Central/Lakes 38% 3% 58% 85 
Connecticut Valley 34% 5% 61% 71 
Mass Border 39% 6% 55% 153 
Seacoast 36% 7% 57% 80 
Manchester Area 39% 7% 54% 75 
 
1st Cong. District 39% 7% 54% 256 
2nd Cong. District 35% 6% 59% 255 
 
How Long Keep Troops in Iraq? 
 
 Stay Until Withdraw Don't 
 Stable w/in 2 Yrs Know (N=) 
STATEWIDE 42% 49% 9% 514 
 
Registered Democrat 23% 70% 7% 126 
Undeclared 42% 49% 8% 200 
Registered Republican 62% 25% 12% 134 
Not registered 36% 54% 9% 50 
 
Democrat 22% 71% 7% 203 
Independent 32% 49% 19% 78 
Republican 69% 26% 6% 203 
 
Liberal 18% 76% 6% 115 
Moderate 40% 49% 11% 201 
Conservative 65% 29% 7% 155 
 
Union household 36% 58% 6% 69 
Non-union 44% 47% 9% 421 
 
5 years or less in NH 25% 53% 22% 46 
6 to 10 years 60% 31% 10% 36 
11 to 20 years 44% 54% 2% 86 
More than 20 years 44% 48% 8% 310 
 
18 to 34 32% 57% 11% 58 
35 to 49 43% 45% 11% 117 
50 to 64 45% 50% 6% 194 
65 and over 46% 45% 10% 101 
 
Male 51% 41% 7% 248 
Female 34% 56% 11% 267 
 
High school or less 42% 48% 10% 111 
Some college 46% 45% 9% 113 
College graduate 42% 50% 7% 156 
Post-graduate 42% 50% 8% 110 
 
Less than $30K 35% 52% 13% 48 
$30K to $60K 37% 54% 9% 74 
$60K to $75K 35% 49% 16% 52 
$75K to $100K 53% 42% 6% 64 
More than $100K 47% 48% 5% 121 
 
Married 43% 48% 8% 324 
Divorced/separated 44% 45% 12% 91 
Never married 40% 55% 6% 75 
 
Protestant 48% 43% 8% 174 
Catholic 46% 45% 8% 171 
Other 31% 59% 10% 121 
 
Attend services 1 or more/week 47% 43% 10% 128 
1-2 times a month 57% 31% 12% 59 
Less often 42% 51% 7% 144 
Never 35% 58% 8% 147 
 
North Country 47% 47% 6% 47 
Central/Lakes 36% 59% 6% 86 
Connecticut Valley 36% 55% 10% 73 
Mass Border 44% 48% 8% 156 
Seacoast 42% 43% 15% 80 
Manchester Area 50% 40% 10% 73 
 
1st Cong. District 45% 46% 10% 255 
2nd Cong. District 40% 52% 8% 259 
Be Upset if Troops Removed from Iraq / Kept in Iraq More than 2 Years? 
 
 Upset if Not Upset Don't Not Upset Upset if 
 Removed if Removed Know if Stay Stay (N=) 
STATEWIDE 24% 18% 9% 9% 40% 514 
 
Registered Democrat 6% 17% 7% 8% 63% 126 
Undeclared 24% 18% 8% 9% 40% 200 
Registered Republican 45% 18% 12% 10% 16% 134 
Not registered 13% 23% 9% 8% 47% 50 
 
Democrat 8% 14% 7% 7% 64% 203 
Independent 14% 18% 19% 8% 41% 78 
Republican 46% 23% 6% 10% 16% 202 
 
Liberal 5% 12% 6% 8% 69% 115 
Moderate 23% 17% 11% 8% 41% 201 
Conservative 41% 23% 7% 10% 18% 155 
 
Union household 18% 18% 6% 7% 51% 69 
Non-union 26% 19% 9% 9% 38% 421 
 
5 years or less in NH 14% 11% 22% 14% 39% 46 
6 to 10 years 26% 34% 10% 8% 22% 36 
11 to 20 years 19% 25% 2% 8% 47% 86 
More than 20 years 27% 17% 8% 8% 40% 310 
 
18 to 34 12% 20% 11% 21% 36% 58 
35 to 49 24% 19% 11% 7% 39% 117 
50 to 64 24% 20% 6% 7% 43% 194 
65 and over 31% 15% 10% 7% 38% 100 
 
Male 30% 21% 7% 10% 31% 248 
Female 18% 15% 11% 7% 48% 266 
 
High school or less 28% 14% 10% 8% 39% 111 
Some college 25% 21% 9% 7% 38% 113 
College graduate 24% 18% 7% 12% 38% 156 
Post-graduate 22% 20% 8% 6% 44% 110 
 
Less than $30K 17% 18% 13% 5% 47% 48 
$30K to $60K 21% 17% 9% 11% 43% 74 
$60K to $75K 21% 14% 16% 8% 42% 52 
$75K to $100K 29% 24% 6% 6% 36% 64 
More than $100K 24% 23% 5% 10% 37% 121 
 
Married 28% 16% 8% 7% 41% 324 
Divorced/separated 22% 21% 12% 9% 36% 91 
Never married 14% 26% 6% 13% 41% 75 
 
Protestant 30% 19% 8% 8% 35% 174 
Catholic 29% 18% 8% 9% 36% 171 
Other 13% 18% 10% 9% 51% 121 
 
Attend services 1 or 
more/week 28% 19% 10% 6% 37% 128 
1-2 times a month 33% 24% 12% 6% 25% 59 
Less often 27% 16% 7% 9% 42% 144 
Never 16% 18% 8% 11% 47% 146 
 
North Country 25% 22% 6% 3% 44% 47 
Central/Lakes 22% 13% 6% 12% 47% 86 
Connecticut Valley 17% 19% 10% 14% 40% 73 
Mass Border 26% 17% 8% 11% 37% 155 
Seacoast 26% 16% 15% 5% 38% 80 
Manchester Area 26% 24% 10% 3% 37% 73 
 
1st Cong. District 26% 19% 10% 5% 40% 255 
2nd Cong. District 23% 17% 8% 12% 40% 258 
 
Can US Win War in Iraq? 
 
 Can Cannot Don't 
 Win Win Know (N=) 
STATEWIDE 38% 52% 10% 512 
 
Registered Democrat 19% 71% 10% 126 
Undeclared 36% 57% 7% 198 
Registered Republican 60% 29% 11% 135 
Not registered 36% 48% 16% 49 
 
Democrat 17% 76% 7% 201 
Independent 35% 54% 11% 78 
Republican 64% 28% 8% 202 
 
Liberal 14% 80% 6% 114 
Moderate 36% 56% 8% 202 
Conservative 64% 28% 8% 155 
 
Union household 40% 57% 3% 65 
Non-union 39% 51% 9% 423 
 
5 years or less in NH 40% 58% 2% 46 
6 to 10 years 42% 43% 15% 36 
11 to 20 years 38% 53% 9% 87 
More than 20 years 40% 53% 8% 308 
 
18 to 34 43% 54% 3% 57 
35 to 49 42% 50% 8% 119 
50 to 64 34% 55% 10% 193 
65 and over 46% 49% 5% 99 
 
Male 48% 46% 7% 249 
Female 30% 58% 13% 263 
 
High school or less 47% 48% 5% 112 
Some college 43% 46% 11% 112 
College graduate 36% 55% 10% 155 
Post-graduate 34% 59% 7% 109 
 
Less than $30K 45% 42% 13% 48 
$30K to $60K 42% 51% 6% 74 
$60K to $75K 32% 60% 8% 54 
$75K to $100K 58% 38% 4% 65 
More than $100K 35% 57% 8% 121 
 
Married 39% 53% 8% 323 
Divorced/separated 38% 54% 8% 91 
Never married 42% 46% 12% 75 
 
Protestant 45% 44% 11% 175 
Catholic 44% 51% 5% 168 
Other 26% 67% 8% 122 
 
Attend services 1 or more/week 41% 45% 13% 128 
1-2 times a month 59% 35% 6% 58 
Less often 40% 54% 7% 145 
Never 31% 64% 6% 146 
 
North Country 40% 47% 13% 47 
Central/Lakes 31% 62% 8% 86 
Connecticut Valley 37% 51% 12% 72 
Mass Border 41% 52% 7% 152 
Seacoast 37% 53% 10% 79 
Manchester Area 44% 44% 12% 75 
 
1st Cong. District 39% 52% 9% 255 
2nd Cong. District 37% 52% 11% 257 
 
 


Year After Surge, NH Sees No Light at End of Iraq Tunnel 8/13/2008

UNH Scholars' Repository

GRANITE STATE POLL THE UNIVERSITY OF NEW HAMPSHIRE  August 13, 2008  YEAR AFTER SURGE, NH SEES NO LIGHT AT END OF IRAQ TUNNEL  By: Andrew E. Smith, Ph.D.  UNH Survey Center  603/862-2226   www.unh.edu/survey-center  DURHAM, NH – One year after the “surge” by U.S. troops in Iraq, and despite a decrease in American and Iraqi casualties, New Hampshire residents are strongly opposed to the war and are pessimistic about U.S. chances of eventual victory.  These findings are based on the latest Granite State Poll,∗ conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center.  Five hundred (519) randomly selected New Hampshire adults were interviewed by telephone between July 11 and July 20, 2008.  The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/-4.3 percent.   Just over a year ago, the Bush Administration made a significant change in its Iraq policy by committing new troops and aggressively working to pacify the country.  This policy, known as the “surge”, has been, according to many observers, successful in reducing U.S. and Iraqi casualties and in stabilizing Iraq.  But in New Hampshire, the Bush Administration has not gotten any political benefit for any improvement the surge may have brought to Iraq.  Only 28% of Granite State adults approve of the way Bush has handled the situation in Iraq, 69% disapprove, and 3% are neutral.  These numbers have been essentially unchanged since the surge was undertaken.                                                                ∗ We ask that this copyrighted information be referred to as the Granite State Poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. Bush Approval: Handling Situation in Iraq 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%Feb. '03Apr. '03June '03Oct. '03Feb. '04Apr. '04July '04Feb. '05Apr. '05July '05Oct. '05Feb. '06Apr. '06July '06Sep. '06Feb. '07April '07July '07Sep. '07Feb. '08Apr. '08July '08Approve DisapproveSupport for the U.S. having gone into Iraq in the first place remains low.  Currently, 37% of Granite Staters support the U.S. having gone to war in Iraq, 57% oppose the U.S. having gone to war, and 6% are neutral. But it is important to note that solid majorities of Republicans (67%) and conservatives (65%) continue to support the war in Iraq.        Troop Pullout From Iraq  There has been considerable debate between John McCain and Barack Obama about when and how American troops should be removed from Iraq with Obama pledging to remove troops within 16 months of taking office and McCain saying he would keep troops in Iraq until the country is stable.  When initially asked, people in New Hampshire are divided over which policy they support with 49% saying that troops should be withdrawn within two years and 42% saying troops should be kept in Iraq until the country is stable, and 9% saying they are unsure.  And while the public is divided about the desired policy, there is also considerable difference in the intensity which these positions are held.  Most of those respondents who want U.S. troops withdrawn within two years say they would be upset if the next president decided to keep troops in Iraq until the country is stable while far fewer of those who support keeping the troops in Iraq until the country is stable say they would be upset if troops were withdrawn.  Forty percent of all New Hampshire adults say they would be upset if troops were kept in Iraq until the country is stable while only 24% would be upset if troops were withdrawn in the next 2 years.  A considerable portion of the electorate (36%) is unengaged on the issue with 9% have no opinion and another 27% saying they would not be upset if their desired position were not followed.       Support for War In Iraq 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%Apr.'03June'03Oct.'03Feb.'04Apr.'04July'04Feb.'05Apr.'05July'05Oct.'05Feb.'06Apr.'06July'06Sep.'06Feb.'07April'07July'07Sep.'07Feb.'08Apr.'08July'08Support Oppose   Can the US Win?  There has been a slight uptick in the percentage of New Hampshire adults who think the U.S. can win the war in Iraq.  In the most recent Granite State Poll, 38% believe the US can win the war in Iraq, 52% think the US cannot win the war, and 10% don’t know.  One year ago, only 32% believed the U.S. could win the war in Iraq.  Republicans are particularly likely to think the U.S. can win in Iraq -- 64% believe the US can win -- while only 35% of Independents and 17% of Democrats think the US can win.    Upset If Your Preferred Iraq Policy Were Not Followed? 24%40%27%9%0%10%20%30%40%50%Want troops to stay until Iraq isstableWant troops withdrawn in 2yearsUnengagedUpset if this does not happen Would not be upset Don't Know / No OpinionPercent Believing US Can Win by Party ID 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%April '07 July '07 Sep. '07 Feb. '08 Apr. '08 July '08Democrats Republicans Independents ALL NH AdultsGranite State Poll Methodology  Five hundred (519) randomly selected New Hampshire adults were interviewed by telephone between July 11 and July 20, 2008.  The sample was selected at random from all household in New Hampshire with a land-line telephone and a respondent was selected at random within each household. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/-4.3 percent.     The data have been weighted to adjust for numbers of adults and telephone lines within households, respondent sex, and region of the state.  In addition to potential sampling error, all surveys have other potential sources of non-sampling error including question order effects, question wording effects, and non-response.     Presidential Approval - Handling of Situation in Iraq  "Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling the situation with Iraq?"   Approve Neutral Disapprove (N) July '08 28% 3% 69% (518) Apr. '08 31% 4% 65% (497) Feb. ‘08 26% 3% 70% (551) Sep. ‘07 29% 3% 68% (508) July ‘07   21% 4% 74% (521) Apr. ‘07 26% 3% 71% (512) Feb. ‘07 25% 2% 72% (527) Sept. ‘06 34% 3% 62% (511) July ‘06 36% 6% 57% (499) Apr. ‘06 29% 4% 67% (501) Feb. ‘06 39% 3% 59% (498) Oct. ‘05 38% 2% 60% (506) July ‘05 45% 3% 51% (499) Apr. ‘05 45% 3% 52% (491) Feb. ‘05 47% 3% 50% (535) July ‘04 42% 3% 55% (501) Apr. ‘04 49% 4% 47% (540) Feb. ‘04 44% 3% 53% (509) Oct. ‘03 54% 3% 42% (500) June ‘03 64% 4% 32% (513) Apr. ‘03 79% 2% 18% (503) Feb. ‘03 56% 7% 37% (646)    Support for War in Iraq  “Do you support or oppose the United States having gone to war with Iraq?”   Support Neutral Oppose (N) July '08 37% 6% 57% (511) Apr. '08 40% 3% 57% (498) Feb. ‘08 38% 5% 57% (548) Sep. ‘07 40% 6% 54% (506) July ‘07 35% 6% 59% (516) Apr. ‘07 37% 5% 58% (510) Feb. ‘07 40% 5% 55% (525) Sept. ‘06 42% 4% 54% (510) July ‘06 47% 6% 47% (500) Apr. ‘06 46% 5% 49% (496) Feb. ‘06 47% 5% 48% (500) Oct. ‘05 45% 4% 50% (502) July ‘05 48% 5% 48% (493) Apr. ‘05 52% 3% 45% (489) Feb. ‘05 47% 6% 47% (537) July ‘04 47% 6% 47% (498) Apr. ‘04 59% 4% 37% (536) Feb. ‘04 54% 3% 33% (509) Oct. ‘03 65% 5% 30% (496) June ‘03 69% 4% 20% (513) Apr. ‘03 77% 4% 20% (506)   Position on Troops in Iraq  “Which would you like the next president of the United States to do in Iraq:  [ROTATE RESPONSES 1 & 2] Keep troops there until Iraq is relatively stable politically, even if it takes four years or more, or take steps to remove most U.S. troops from Iraq within two years of taking office, or don’t you have an opinion on this?”     Percent   Keep troops in Iraq until stable 42%   Remove troops within two years 49%   Don’t know 9%   (N=) (514)       Upset if Next President Does Not Take Your Position on Iraq?  “Suppose the next president decided to (take steps to remove most U.S. troops from Iraq within two years of taking office / keep troops in Iraq until the country is relatively stable politically, even if it takes four years or more), would you be very upset … somewhat upset … not too upset … or not upset at all?”    Percent  Upset if troops removed 24%  Not upset if troops removed 18%  Don’t know 9%  Not upset if troops kept until stable 9%  Upset if troops kept until stable 40%  (N=) (514)    Can US Win in Iraq?  “Do you think the United States can win or cannot win the war in Iraq?”    Can Win Cannot Win Don’t Know  (N) July '08 38% 52% 10% (511) Apr. '08 34% 56% 10% (495) Feb. ‘08 35% 53% 12% (544) Sep. ‘07 32% 55% 13% (503) July ‘07 32% 57% 11% (504) Apr. ‘07 35% 55% 10% (512)  Presidential Approval Rating - Iraq   Approve Neutral Disapprove (N=) STATEWIDE 28% 3% 69% 518  Registered Democrat 8% 2% 91% 128 Undeclared 26% 1% 73% 202 Registered Republican 50% 7% 43% 135 Not registered 24% 5% 71% 49  Democrat 5% 2% 93% 205 Independent 16% 1% 83% 80 Republican 56% 5% 38% 202  Liberal 5% 1% 94% 116 Moderate 19% 4% 77% 203 Conservative 57% 4% 39% 155  Union household 21% 1% 78% 69 Non-union 30% 3% 67% 425  5 years or less in NH 26% 1% 73% 45 6 to 10 years 39% 0% 61% 36 11 to 20 years 27% 2% 71% 89 More than 20 years 28% 4% 68% 312  18 to 34 21% 3% 76% 59 35 to 49 31% 1% 68% 120 50 to 64 26% 5% 69% 194 65 and over 35% 4% 61% 101  Male 35% 3% 62% 249 Female 21% 4% 75% 268  High school or less 26% 5% 69% 113 Some college 30% 6% 64% 114 College graduate 31% 2% 68% 157 Post-graduate 26% 0% 74% 109  Less than $30K 26% 6% 68% 48 $30K to $60K 32% 1% 67% 74 $60K to $75K 29% 2% 69% 54 $75K to $100K 36% 1% 63% 65 More than $100K 25% 2% 73% 122  Married 31% 2% 67% 325 Divorced/separated 24% 7% 68% 92 Never married 22% 3% 75% 76  Protestant 36% 3% 61% 175 Catholic 32% 2% 66% 171 Other 14% 5% 80% 122  Attend services 1 or more/week 34% 2% 64% 127 1-2 times a month 40% 3% 56% 59 Less often 27% 3% 70% 145 Never 21% 5% 74% 149  North Country 28% 15% 58% 47 Central/Lakes 23% 1% 75% 86 Connecticut Valley 26% 3% 71% 73 Mass Border 30% 2% 68% 156 Seacoast 34% 2% 63% 81 Manchester Area 22% 2% 76% 75  1st Cong. District 29% 4% 67% 258 2nd Cong. District 26% 3% 71% 259    Support / Oppose US War in Iraq   Support Neutral Oppose (N=) STATEWIDE 37% 6% 57% 511  Registered Democrat 10% 5% 85% 124 Undeclared 36% 6% 58% 200 Registered Republican 63% 8% 29% 134 Not registered 39% 9% 52% 48  Democrat 13% 4% 83% 200 Independent 26% 10% 64% 79 Republican 67% 8% 25% 201  Liberal 11% 6% 83% 114 Moderate 33% 7% 59% 201 Conservative 65% 6% 29% 153  Union household 30% 2% 68% 67 Non-union 39% 7% 54% 420  5 years or less in NH 35% 1% 64% 45 6 to 10 years 43% 6% 51% 36 11 to 20 years 36% 5% 60% 86 More than 20 years 39% 8% 53% 308  18 to 34 41% 8% 51% 56 35 to 49 48% 9% 43% 119 50 to 64 34% 5% 61% 191 65 and over 35% 6% 59% 101  Male 44% 4% 51% 247 Female 30% 9% 62% 264  High school or less 42% 7% 52% 113 Some college 36% 9% 55% 112 College graduate 43% 8% 49% 154 Post-graduate 27% 2% 71% 108  Less than $30K 37% 7% 56% 48 $30K to $60K 44% 3% 53% 74 $60K to $75K 34% 4% 63% 53 $75K to $100K 46% 7% 46% 63 More than $100K 39% 6% 54% 122  Married 37% 5% 59% 321 Divorced/separated 35% 11% 53% 91 Never married 41% 9% 50% 75  Protestant 42% 6% 52% 173 Catholic 44% 5% 51% 168 Other 26% 9% 65% 121  Attend services 1 or more/week 37% 7% 57% 126 1-2 times a month 46% 7% 47% 59 Less often 43% 4% 54% 142 Never 33% 9% 58% 147  North Country 29% 14% 58% 47 Central/Lakes 38% 3% 58% 85 Connecticut Valley 34% 5% 61% 71 Mass Border 39% 6% 55% 153 Seacoast 36% 7% 57% 80 Manchester Area 39% 7% 54% 75  1st Cong. District 39% 7% 54% 256 2nd Cong. District 35% 6% 59% 255  How Long Keep Troops in Iraq?   Stay Until Withdraw Don't  Stable w/in 2 Yrs Know (N=) STATEWIDE 42% 49% 9% 514  Registered Democrat 23% 70% 7% 126 Undeclared 42% 49% 8% 200 Registered Republican 62% 25% 12% 134 Not registered 36% 54% 9% 50  Democrat 22% 71% 7% 203 Independent 32% 49% 19% 78 Republican 69% 26% 6% 203  Liberal 18% 76% 6% 115 Moderate 40% 49% 11% 201 Conservative 65% 29% 7% 155  Union household 36% 58% 6% 69 Non-union 44% 47% 9% 421  5 years or less in NH 25% 53% 22% 46 6 to 10 years 60% 31% 10% 36 11 to 20 years 44% 54% 2% 86 More than 20 years 44% 48% 8% 310  18 to 34 32% 57% 11% 58 35 to 49 43% 45% 11% 117 50 to 64 45% 50% 6% 194 65 and over 46% 45% 10% 101  Male 51% 41% 7% 248 Female 34% 56% 11% 267  High school or less 42% 48% 10% 111 Some college 46% 45% 9% 113 College graduate 42% 50% 7% 156 Post-graduate 42% 50% 8% 110  Less than $30K 35% 52% 13% 48 $30K to $60K 37% 54% 9% 74 $60K to $75K 35% 49% 16% 52 $75K to $100K 53% 42% 6% 64 More than $100K 47% 48% 5% 121  Married 43% 48% 8% 324 Divorced/separated 44% 45% 12% 91 Never married 40% 55% 6% 75  Protestant 48% 43% 8% 174 Catholic 46% 45% 8% 171 Other 31% 59% 10% 121  Attend services 1 or more/week 47% 43% 10% 128 1-2 times a month 57% 31% 12% 59 Less often 42% 51% 7% 144 Never 35% 58% 8% 147  North Country 47% 47% 6% 47 Central/Lakes 36% 59% 6% 86 Connecticut Valley 36% 55% 10% 73 Mass Border 44% 48% 8% 156 Seacoast 42% 43% 15% 80 Manchester Area 50% 40% 10% 73  1st Cong. District 45% 46% 10% 255 2nd Cong. District 40% 52% 8% 259 Be Upset if Troops Removed from Iraq / Kept in Iraq More than 2 Years?   Upset if Not Upset Don't Not Upset Upset if  Removed if Removed Know if Stay Stay (N=) STATEWIDE 24% 18% 9% 9% 40% 514  Registered Democrat 6% 17% 7% 8% 63% 126 Undeclared 24% 18% 8% 9% 40% 200 Registered Republican 45% 18% 12% 10% 16% 134 Not registered 13% 23% 9% 8% 47% 50  Democrat 8% 14% 7% 7% 64% 203 Independent 14% 18% 19% 8% 41% 78 Republican 46% 23% 6% 10% 16% 202  Liberal 5% 12% 6% 8% 69% 115 Moderate 23% 17% 11% 8% 41% 201 Conservative 41% 23% 7% 10% 18% 155  Union household 18% 18% 6% 7% 51% 69 Non-union 26% 19% 9% 9% 38% 421  5 years or less in NH 14% 11% 22% 14% 39% 46 6 to 10 years 26% 34% 10% 8% 22% 36 11 to 20 years 19% 25% 2% 8% 47% 86 More than 20 years 27% 17% 8% 8% 40% 310  18 to 34 12% 20% 11% 21% 36% 58 35 to 49 24% 19% 11% 7% 39% 117 50 to 64 24% 20% 6% 7% 43% 194 65 and over 31% 15% 10% 7% 38% 100  Male 30% 21% 7% 10% 31% 248 Female 18% 15% 11% 7% 48% 266  High school or less 28% 14% 10% 8% 39% 111 Some college 25% 21% 9% 7% 38% 113 College graduate 24% 18% 7% 12% 38% 156 Post-graduate 22% 20% 8% 6% 44% 110  Less than $30K 17% 18% 13% 5% 47% 48 $30K to $60K 21% 17% 9% 11% 43% 74 $60K to $75K 21% 14% 16% 8% 42% 52 $75K to $100K 29% 24% 6% 6% 36% 64 More than $100K 24% 23% 5% 10% 37% 121  Married 28% 16% 8% 7% 41% 324 Divorced/separated 22% 21% 12% 9% 36% 91 Never married 14% 26% 6% 13% 41% 75  Protestant 30% 19% 8% 8% 35% 174 Catholic 29% 18% 8% 9% 36% 171 Other 13% 18% 10% 9% 51% 121  Attend services 1 or more/week 28% 19% 10% 6% 37% 128 1-2 times a month 33% 24% 12% 6% 25% 59 Less often 27% 16% 7% 9% 42% 144 Never 16% 18% 8% 11% 47% 146  North Country 25% 22% 6% 3% 44% 47 Central/Lakes 22% 13% 6% 12% 47% 86 Connecticut Valley 17% 19% 10% 14% 40% 73 Mass Border 26% 17% 8% 11% 37% 155 Seacoast 26% 16% 15% 5% 38% 80 Manchester Area 26% 24% 10% 3% 37% 73  1st Cong. District 26% 19% 10% 5% 40% 255 2nd Cong. District 23% 17% 8% 12% 40% 258  Can US Win War in Iraq?   Can Cannot Don't  Win Win Know (N=) STATEWIDE 38% 52% 10% 512  Registered Democrat 19% 71% 10% 126 Undeclared 36% 57% 7% 198 Registered Republican 60% 29% 11% 135 Not registered 36% 48% 16% 49  Democrat 17% 76% 7% 201 Independent 35% 54% 11% 78 Republican 64% 28% 8% 202  Liberal 14% 80% 6% 114 Moderate 36% 56% 8% 202 Conservative 64% 28% 8% 155  Union household 40% 57% 3% 65 Non-union 39% 51% 9% 423  5 years or less in NH 40% 58% 2% 46 6 to 10 years 42% 43% 15% 36 11 to 20 years 38% 53% 9% 87 More than 20 years 40% 53% 8% 308  18 to 34 43% 54% 3% 57 35 to 49 42% 50% 8% 119 50 to 64 34% 55% 10% 193 65 and over 46% 49% 5% 99  Male 48% 46% 7% 249 Female 30% 58% 13% 263  High school or less 47% 48% 5% 112 Some college 43% 46% 11% 112 College graduate 36% 55% 10% 155 Post-graduate 34% 59% 7% 109  Less than $30K 45% 42% 13% 48 $30K to $60K 42% 51% 6% 74 $60K to $75K 32% 60% 8% 54 $75K to $100K 58% 38% 4% 65 More than $100K 35% 57% 8% 121  Married 39% 53% 8% 323 Divorced/separated 38% 54% 8% 91 Never married 42% 46% 12% 75  Protestant 45% 44% 11% 175 Catholic 44% 51% 5% 168 Other 26% 67% 8% 122  Attend services 1 or more/week 41% 45% 13% 128 1-2 times a month 59% 35% 6% 58 Less often 40% 54% 7% 145 Never 31% 64% 6% 146  North Country 40% 47% 13% 47 Central/Lakes 31% 62% 8% 86 Connecticut Valley 37% 51% 12% 72 Mass Border 41% 52% 7% 152 Seacoast 37% 53% 10% 79 Manchester Area 44% 44% 12% 75  1st Cong. District 39% 52% 9% 255 2nd Cong. District 37% 52% 11% 257   

https://scholars.unh.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1353&amp;context=survey_center_polls

Year After Surge, NH Sees No Light at End of Iraq Tunnel 8/13/2008

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