Islam, Md Rafiul

English

VCU Scholars Compass

Parameter Sensitivity Analysis of a Infectious Disease Model and Identifying Dominant Transmission Pathways

Virginia Commonwealth UniversityVCU Scholars CompassBiology and Medicine Through MathematicsConference 2018May 31st, 12:00 PM - 12:30 PMParameter Sensitivity Analysis of a InfectiousDisease Model and Identifying DominantTransmission PathwaysMd Rafiul IslamTexas Tech University, rafiul.islam@ttu.eduFollow this and additional works at: https://scholarscompass.vcu.edu/bammPart of the Life Sciences Commons, Medicine and Health Sciences Commons, and the PhysicalSciences and Mathematics CommonsThis Event is brought to you for free and open access by the Dept. of Mathematics and Applied Mathematics at VCU Scholars Compass. It has beenaccepted for inclusion in Biology and Medicine Through Mathematics Conference by an authorized administrator of VCU Scholars Compass. Formore information, please contact libcompass@vcu.edu.https://scholarscompass.vcu.edu/bamm/2018/thursday/8Parameter Sensitivity Analysis of a Infectious Disease Model and IdentifyingDominant Transmission PathwaysMd Rafiul Islam1a, Matthew J. Grayb, J. Patrick Cusaacb, Angela PeaceaaDepartment of Mathematics and Statistics, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX, USAbCenter for Wildlife Health, University of Tennessee Institute of Agriculture, Knoxville, TN, USAAbstractEmerging infectious diseases are a threat to biodiversity and fungal pathogens have caused rapiddeclines in amphibian populations around the globe (McCraw and Gurr, 2012). Gray et al (2015)identifies Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans (Bsal) as an emerging fungal pathogen that causedrapid die-offs of naïve salamanders in Europe and predicts North America will soon experience similardevastation if no policy actions are taken and the pathogen emerges. Epidemic dynamics of infectiousdiseases with multiple routes of transmission are complex. Mathematical models can be used todetermine invasion potential and identify which transmission pathway is dominant, can ultimatelyhelp identify appropriate intervention strategies. We developed compartmental host-pathogen modelsto examine transmission dynamics of an emerging fungal pathogen on an amphibian population.Multiple stages of infection are incorporated into the model, allowing disease-induced mortalityand zoospore shedding rates to increase as the disease progresses. Parameter sensitivity analysisusing the Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) with the Partial Rank Correlation Coefficient (PRCC),calculations of the basic reproductive number, and numerical simulations shed insight into pathogendynamics.ReferencesGray MJ, Lewis JP, Nanjappa P, Klocke B, Pasmans F, Martel A, Stephen C, Olea GP, Smith SA,Sacerdote-Velat A, et al (2015) Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans: the north american responseand a call for action. PLoS pathogens 11(12):e1005,251McCraw S, Gurr S (2012) Emerging fungal threats to animal, plant and ecosystem health. Nature484(7393):186,194Frank1corresponding author e-mail address: rafiul.islam@ttu.edu1

https://scholarscompass.vcu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1220&context=bamm

Parameter Sensitivity Analysis of a Infectious Disease Model and Identifying Dominant Transmission Pathways

Abstract

Similar works

Full text

Available Versions

VCU Scholars Compass

VCU Scholars Compass