Diogo, V.

Koomen, E.

Lassche, M.R.

Schaeffer, M.

DSpace at VU

Theme 6 Climate projections - work package 3 
project 4: Linking hydrology and land use 
Coupling land-use and hydrological modelling systems
M.R. Lassche, V. Diogo, M. Schaeffer and E. Koomen
Future socio-economic developments are likely to influence the amount and location of urban, agricultural and natural areas. These 
developments will affect hydrological conditions such as local amounts of sealed surface and potential evapotranspiration and may 
thus lead to changes in groundwater recharge or river runoff. This project studies the interrelationships between land-use and 
hydrology by coupling existing, state-of-the-art modelling systems. 
We aim to answer the following questions:
1. How can hydrologic and land-use models be coupled? 
• Which demands does the groundwater module of the National Hydrological 
Modelling System pose to a land-use model in terms of spatial, temporal and 
thematic resolution; and to which extent can the Land Use Scanner model 
meet these requirements directly? 
• How can different flood risk assessments be related to land-use patterns; 
and how can these assessments be used in spatial planning?
2. To which extent does the propagation of errors and uncertainty influence            
the validity of the simulation outcomes? 
• Will small changes in the specification of input parameters cause large 
changes in the output?
3. What does the coupling of the hydrologic and land-use models imply about 
the future hydrologic conditions and land-use patterns in (selected parts of) 
the Netherlands? 
• Which hydrologic impacts (in terms of, for example, evaporation and 
groundwater table) can be expected from the Dutch climatic and socio-
Answering questions 1 and 2: how can output from Land Use Scanner be used 
in MetaSwap, the groundwater component of the National Hydrological 
Modelling System?; how sensitive is this model to scenario-based changes in 
land-use input? 
Initial results:
• Koks E E Moel H de Koomen E (2012) Comparing
Biophysical factors Economic factorsLand use Non-spatial factors
• Available technological 
options
• Investment risks
• Aversion to change
• Crop market prices
economic scenarios? 
• How will these influence land-use patterns?
. . ., , . ., , .   
extreme rainfall and large-scale flooding induced inundation 
risk- Evidence from a Dutch case-study. Chapter 1 in: Dr. 
Kumarasamy, M. (ed.) Studies on water management issues. 
Intech, Rijeka, pp. 3-26. 
• Van Leeuwen, E., Koomen, E. (2012) Adapting urban land 
use in a time of climate change; Optimising future land-use 
patterns to decrease flood risks. Chapter 2 in: Lal, R. and 
Augustin, B. (eds.) Carbon Sequestration in Urban 
Ecosystems. Springer, Dordrecht, pp. 21-41. 
Modelling approach 1
Biophysical suitability
Modelling approach 2
Net Present Value
Modelling approach 3
Real Option Value
Land Use Scanner
E i b d l d d l
• van Hussen, K., Wateroverlast in stedelijk gebied ten 
gevolge van extreme neerslag; een quickscan voor de 
intrinsieke gevoeligheid voor wateroverlast, Bachelor thesis 
Earth and Economics2010.
• Verhagen, S., De optimale huisvestingslocatie van 
Nederland. Wanneer agglomeratievoordelen en 
overstromingsrisico's tegen elkaar worden afgewogen., 
Bachelor thesis Earth and Economics, Vrije Universiteit, 
Amsterdam, 2010.Answering question 3: How can changing hydrological conditions be included in a land-use 
model? Or more specifically what is the impact of hydrological changes (e g resulting from
conom cs- ase  an -use mo e
 ,  ,        . .   
climate change) in local suitability for agriculture? How do these changes influence future land-
use patterns?


Coupling land-use and hydrological modelling systems

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Coupling land-use and hydrological modelling systems

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