Dekkers, J.E.C.

Diogo, V.

Koomen, E.

Rietveld, P.

VU Research Portal

VU Research PortalA utility-based, multi-sector framework for local scale land-use modelingKoomen, E.; Diogo, V.; Dekkers, J.E.C.; Rietveld, P.published inExtended abstract for workshop on Complexity Modeling for Urban Structure and Dynamics, 15th AGILEinternational conference on Geographic Information Science2012document versionPublisher's PDF, also known as Version of recordLink to publication in VU Research Portalcitation for published version (APA)Koomen, E., Diogo, V., Dekkers, J. E. C., & Rietveld, P. (2012). A utility-based, multi-sector framework for localscale land-use modeling. In Extended abstract for workshop on Complexity Modeling for Urban Structure andDynamics, 15th AGILE international conference on Geographic Information Science AGILE.General rightsCopyright and moral rights for the publications made accessible in the public portal are retained by the authors and/or other copyright ownersand it is a condition of accessing publications that users recognise and abide by the legal requirements associated with these rights.            • Users may download and print one copy of any publication from the public portal for the purpose of private study or research.            • You may not further distribute the material or use it for any profit-making activity or commercial gain            • You may freely distribute the URL identifying the publication in the public portal ?Take down policyIf you believe that this document breaches copyright please contact us providing details, and we will remove access to the work immediatelyand investigate your claim.E-mail address:vuresearchportal.ub@vu.nlDownload date: 13. Sep. 2021Extended abstract for workshop on Complexity Modeling for Urban Structure and Dynamics for AGILE2012 A utility-based, multi-sector framework for local scale land-use modelling Eric Koomen, Vasco Diogo, Jasper Dekkers and Piet Rietveld Department of Spatial Economics/SPINlab, VU University Amsterdam, The Netherlands Email corresponding author: e.koomen@vu.nl  Keywords: land-use modelling; suitability; deduction; land economics; the Netherlands  Local land-use changes are driven by a wide range of social, economic and biophysical forces. These forces have a different impact on the various societal sectors that influence the land-use system. Urbanisation is typically driven by factors such as economic development, accessibility and spatial planning, agriculture is strongly influenced by general agro-economic and local biophysical conditions, while changes in natural areas generally result from (the presence or lack of) agricultural perspective and policy interventions. Obviously the strength of these forces varies across time and space. Land-use models that simulate spatial developments can apply a wide range of theories and methods to explain the magnitude and location of change (see, for example, Koomen and Stillwell, 2007). A crucial component in most land-use models is the definition of local suitability of land for various types of use that is normally done by statistical analysis or expert judgement (Lesschen et al., 2005; Verburg et al., 2004). The causal relations that link the underlying decision making processes to the observed changes in land use are generally poorly represented in these approaches (Munroe and Muller, 2007). Yet, data-driven inductive approaches are popular because they tend to perform better in reproducing existing spatial patterns (Overmars et al., 2007b). Overmars et al. argue, however, that a deductive theory-induced approach should be better equipped to understand causal relations and ongoing processes. Attempts to introduce a deductive approach to land-use modelling are relatively scarce and tend to focus on land-use changes that relate to single-sector processes such as agricultural practices (Overmars et al., 2007a) and residential development (Ettema et al., 2007). This is due to the fact that reproducing observed land-use patterns (the typical procedure in validating model outcomes) following a deductive approach is much harder in models that simulate multiple land-use change processes than models that simulate single land-use change processes (van Schrojenstein Lantman et al., 2011).  We propose an integrated approach that can be used to simulate local land-use changes for multiple societal sectors simultaneously. In fact, we will follow the invitation of (Overmars et al., 2007a) to seek the interaction between inductive and deductive work. The framework aims to combine the strengths of the available concepts, approaches and techniques of different disciplines (as advocated by Verburg et al., 2004) instead of elaborating on approaches belonging to a specific discipline. A crucial issue here is to come to a unified assessment framework for land suitability that incorporates the local potential for different types of use (urban, agricultural and natural) based on, for example, market preferences, land-use related adaptation measures and biophysical conditions that change over time.  The proposed suitability framework defines local land suitability following a monetary (utility based) framework following the rationale of many existing land-use models. Suitability for a particular type Extended abstract for workshop on Complexity Modeling for Urban Structure and Dynamics for AGILE2012 of land use is calculated as the net benefits for that use, in line with bid-rent theory and the host of literature on land markets and land evaluation. This utility-based approach has the advantage that it allows for a unified assessment of land suitability that can be directly linked to human behaviour and can, potentially, be defined in a relatively objective way. It provides a common reference scale for the definition of suitability that allows for straightforward interpretation, direct comparison between different types of land use and regions, and a framework for the inclusion of future changes in location characteristics. It thus offers the possibility to insert discontinuities, policy alternatives or anticipated scenario-based changes, that are particularly relevant in the context of, for example, climate change. These advantages are lacking in alternative approaches such as pure statistical techniques, multi-criteria analysis or the analytical hierarchy process.  The suitability framework is implemented in the widely applied Land Use Scanner model (Hoymann, 2010; Koomen and Borsboom-van Beurden, 2011; Te Linde et al., 2011) and applied to a case study area where economic and biophysical processes interact and that is characterised by considerable dynamics in multiple sectors. The Netherlands fulfil these criteria and have the additional advantage that the necessary large amounts of spatial data are available.  References Ettema, D., de Jong, K., Timmermans, H. and Bakema, A. (2007) PUMA: multi-agent modelling of urban systems. Chapter 14. In: Koomen, E., Stillwell, J., Bakema, A. and Scholten, H.J. (eds.), Modelling land-use change; progress and applications. Springer, Dordrecht, pp. 237-258. Hoymann, J. (2010) Spatial allocation of future residential land use in the Elbe River Basin. Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design 37(5): 911-928.  Koomen, E. and Borsboom-van Beurden, J. (2011) Land-use modeling in planning practice. Geojournal library, volume 101. Springer, Heidelberg. Koomen, E. and Stillwell, J. (2007) Modelling land-use change; Theories and methods. Chapter 1. In: Koomen, E., Stillwell, J., Bakema, A. and Scholten, H.J. (eds.), Modelling land-use change; progress and applications. Springer, Dordrecht, pp. 1-21. Lesschen, J.P., Verburg, P.H. and Staal, S.J. (2005) Statistical methods for analysing the spatial dimension of changes in land use and farming systems. LUCC report series No. 7. International Livestock Research Institute/LUCC Focus 3 Office, Nairobi/Wageningen.  Munroe, D.K. and Muller, D. (2007) Issues in spatially explicit statistical land-use/cover change (LUCC) models: Examples from western Honduras and the Central Highlands of Vietnam. Land Use Policy 24(3): 521-530.  Overmars, K.P., De Groot, W.T. and Huigen, M.G.A. (2007a) Comparing inductive and deductive modelling of land use decisions: principles, a model and an illustration from the Philipines. Human Ecology 35(4): 439-452.  Overmars, K.P., Verburg, P.H. and Veldkamp, T. (2007b) Comparison of a deductive and an inductive approach to specify land suitability in a spatially explicit land use model. Land Use Policy 24(3): 584-599.  Te Linde, A.H., Bubeck, P., Dekkers, J.E.C., De Moel, H. and Aerts, J.C.J.H. (2011) Future flood risk estimates along the river Rhine. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 11(2): 459-473.  van Schrojenstein Lantman, J., Verburg, P.H., Bregt, A.K. and Geertman, S. (2011) Core principles and concepts in land-use modelling: a literature review. Chapter 3. In: Koomen, E. and Borsboom-van Beurden, J. (eds.), Land-use modeling in planning practice. Springer, Dordrecht, pp. 35-57. Verburg, P.H., Schot, P.P., Dijst, M.J. and Veldkamp, A. (2004) Land use change modelling: current practice and research priorities. Geojournal 61: 309-324.    

English

A utility-based, multi-sector framework for local scale land-use modeling

NARCIS 

DSpace at VU

Extended abstract for workshop on Complexity Modeling for Urban Structure and Dynamics for AGILE2012 
A utility-based, multi-sector framework for local 
scale land-use modelling 
Eric Koomen, Vasco Diogo, Jasper Dekkers and Piet Rietveld 
Department of Spatial Economics/SPINlab, VU University Amsterdam, The Netherlands 
Email corresponding author: e.koomen@vu.nl 
 
Keywords: land-use modelling; suitability; deduction; land economics; the Netherlands 
 
Local land-use changes are driven by a wide range of social, economic and biophysical forces. These 
forces have a different impact on the various societal sectors that influence the land-use system. 
Urbanisation is typically driven by factors such as economic development, accessibility and spatial 
planning, agriculture is strongly influenced by general agro-economic and local biophysical 
conditions, while changes in natural areas generally result from (the presence or lack of) agricultural 
perspective and policy interventions. Obviously the strength of these forces varies across time and 
space. Land-use models that simulate spatial developments can apply a wide range of theories and 
methods to explain the magnitude and location of change (see, for example, Koomen and Stillwell, 
2007). A crucial component in most land-use models is the definition of local suitability of land for 
various types of use that is normally done by statistical analysis or expert judgement (Lesschen et al., 
2005; Verburg et al., 2004). The causal relations that link the underlying decision making processes to 
the observed changes in land use are generally poorly represented in these approaches (Munroe and 
Muller, 2007). Yet, data-driven inductive approaches are popular because they tend to perform better 
in reproducing existing spatial patterns (Overmars et al., 2007b). Overmars et al. argue, however, that 
a deductive theory-induced approach should be better equipped to understand causal relations and 
ongoing processes. Attempts to introduce a deductive approach to land-use modelling are relatively 
scarce and tend to focus on land-use changes that relate to single-sector processes such as agricultural 
practices (Overmars et al., 2007a) and residential development (Ettema et al., 2007). This is due to the 
fact that reproducing observed land-use patterns (the typical procedure in validating model outcomes) 
following a deductive approach is much harder in models that simulate multiple land-use change 
processes than models that simulate single land-use change processes (van Schrojenstein Lantman et 
al., 2011).  
We propose an integrated approach that can be used to simulate local land-use changes for multiple 
societal sectors simultaneously. In fact, we will follow the invitation of (Overmars et al., 2007a) to 
seek the interaction between inductive and deductive work. The framework aims to combine the 
strengths of the available concepts, approaches and techniques of different disciplines (as advocated 
by Verburg et al., 2004) instead of elaborating on approaches belonging to a specific discipline. A 
crucial issue here is to come to a unified assessment framework for land suitability that incorporates 
the local potential for different types of use (urban, agricultural and natural) based on, for example, 
market preferences, land-use related adaptation measures and biophysical conditions that change over 
time.  
The proposed suitability framework defines local land suitability following a monetary (utility based) 
framework following the rationale of many existing land-use models. Suitability for a particular type 
Extended abstract for workshop on Complexity Modeling for Urban Structure and Dynamics for AGILE2012 
of land use is calculated as the net benefits for that use, in line with bid-rent theory and the host of 
literature on land markets and land evaluation. This utility-based approach has the advantage that it 
allows for a unified assessment of land suitability that can be directly linked to human behaviour and 
can, potentially, be defined in a relatively objective way. It provides a common reference scale for the 
definition of suitability that allows for straightforward interpretation, direct comparison between 
different types of land use and regions, and a framework for the inclusion of future changes in 
location characteristics. It thus offers the possibility to insert discontinuities, policy alternatives or 
anticipated scenario-based changes, that are particularly relevant in the context of, for example, 
climate change. These advantages are lacking in alternative approaches such as pure statistical 
techniques, multi-criteria analysis or the analytical hierarchy process.  
The suitability framework is implemented in the widely applied Land Use Scanner model (Hoymann, 
2010; Koomen and Borsboom-van Beurden, 2011; Te Linde et al., 2011) and applied to a case study 
area where economic and biophysical processes interact and that is characterised by considerable 
dynamics in multiple sectors. The Netherlands fulfil these criteria and have the additional advantage 
that the necessary large amounts of spatial data are available.  
References 
Ettema, D., de Jong, K., Timmermans, H. and Bakema, A. (2007) PUMA: multi-agent modelling of 
urban systems. Chapter 14. In: Koomen, E., Stillwell, J., Bakema, A. and Scholten, H.J. 
(eds.), Modelling land-use change; progress and applications. Springer, Dordrecht, pp. 237-
258. 
Hoymann, J. (2010) Spatial allocation of future residential land use in the Elbe River Basin. 
Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design 37(5): 911-928.  
Koomen, E. and Borsboom-van Beurden, J. (2011) Land-use modeling in planning practice. 
Geojournal library, volume 101. Springer, Heidelberg. 
Koomen, E. and Stillwell, J. (2007) Modelling land-use change; Theories and methods. Chapter 1. In: 
Koomen, E., Stillwell, J., Bakema, A. and Scholten, H.J. (eds.), Modelling land-use change; 
progress and applications. Springer, Dordrecht, pp. 1-21. 
Lesschen, J.P., Verburg, P.H. and Staal, S.J. (2005) Statistical methods for analysing the spatial 
dimension of changes in land use and farming systems. LUCC report series No. 7. 
International Livestock Research Institute/LUCC Focus 3 Office, Nairobi/Wageningen.  
Munroe, D.K. and Muller, D. (2007) Issues in spatially explicit statistical land-use/cover change 
(LUCC) models: Examples from western Honduras and the Central Highlands of Vietnam. 
Land Use Policy 24(3): 521-530.  
Overmars, K.P., De Groot, W.T. and Huigen, M.G.A. (2007a) Comparing inductive and deductive 
modelling of land use decisions: principles, a model and an illustration from the Philipines. 
Human Ecology 35(4): 439-452.  
Overmars, K.P., Verburg, P.H. and Veldkamp, T. (2007b) Comparison of a deductive and an 
inductive approach to specify land suitability in a spatially explicit land use model. Land Use 
Policy 24(3): 584-599.  
Te Linde, A.H., Bubeck, P., Dekkers, J.E.C., De Moel, H. and Aerts, J.C.J.H. (2011) Future flood risk 
estimates along the river Rhine. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 11(2): 459-473.  
van Schrojenstein Lantman, J., Verburg, P.H., Bregt, A.K. and Geertman, S. (2011) Core principles 
and concepts in land-use modelling: a literature review. Chapter 3. In: Koomen, E. and 
Borsboom-van Beurden, J. (eds.), Land-use modeling in planning practice. Springer, 
Dordrecht, pp. 35-57. 
Verburg, P.H., Schot, P.P., Dijst, M.J. and Veldkamp, A. (2004) Land use change modelling: current 
practice and research priorities. Geojournal 61: 309-324.  
 
 


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