Diogo, V.

Koomen, E.

DSpace at VU

 
 
V – Health and Urban areas   3 Parallel session A – Tuesday 11th March 11:00-12:30 
 
ID Nº: [35] 
Title: SIMULATING FUTURE CHANGES IN THE URBAN HEAT ISLAND EFFECT 
BASED ON AN INTEGRATION OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC AND CLIMATE 
SCENARIOS 
Authors: Eric Koomen1; Vasco Diogo1 
Institutions: 1VU University Amsterdam, department of Spatial Economics 
Many examples exist of studies that aim to measure the urban heat island effect using different data sources such as satellite images, 
weather stations and mobile devices. Yet, few studies explain local variation in the observed temperatures and apply this knowledge to 
downscale global scenarios related to both climatic and socio-economic changes. This paper analyses the strength of the urban heat 
island effect in a temperate climate, explains local variation in the observed temperatures and quantifies how this urban heat island effect 
may develop in the coming 30 years due to projected climatic and socio-economic changes. The analysis is based on our own 
measurement of the urban heat island effect that we define as the maximum temperature difference between local urban temperatures 
and a rural reference station observed during a 24 hour period.  
 
We describe current urban heat island patterns based on two separate analyses. Spatial variation in urban temperatures is measured 
along a route using mobile measurement devices and then explained using regression analsyis and spatially explicit explanatory variables, 
while temporal variation is described based on local temperature measurements derived from amateur weather stations. 
 
To assess potential future changes we build on existing scenario studies and a land-use simulation model. Using observed relations 
between maximum daily temperatures and observed urban heat island values we are able to assess the impact of climate change on local 
heat island values. The land-use change model allows the translation of macro-level socio-economic changes into potential future 
urbanisation patterns and thus the assessment of increased urbanisation on urban heat island effect. Our measurements for the 
Amsterdam region in the Netherlands show that the urban heat island effect induces maximum temperature differences with the 
surrounding countryside of over 3 degrees Celsius on moderately warm summer days with a maximum daytime temperature of 20 
degrees. The observed temperature difference between urban and rural areas increases by about 0.13 degree for each degree increase in 
maximum daytime temperature.  
 
The simulations of potential future changes in urban heat island patterns indicate that strong local temperature increases are likely due to 
urban development. Climate change will, on average, have a limited impact on these changes. Large impacts can, however, be expected 
from the combination of urban development and potentially more frequent occurrences of extreme climatic events such as heat waves. 
 
 Presenter 
   Name: Vasco Diogo 
   Email: V.PintoNunesNogueiraDiogo@vu.nl 
  


Simulating future changes in the urban heat island effect based on an integration of socio-economic and climate scenarios

http://dare.ubvu.vu.nl/bitstream/handle/1871/50986/CIRCLE2%20-%20Simulating%20future%20changes%20in%20the%20urban%20heat%20island%20effect.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y

Simulating future changes in the urban heat island effect based on an integration of socio-economic and climate scenarios

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