Yeni Klasik kurama göre bütçe politikalarının değerlendirilmesi

Abstract

The New Classical theorem asserts that (a) the individuals with rational expectations do not change their consumption levels unless the expected permanent income changes, and, (b), thusly, tax and/or debt policies are not significant on consumption decisions of the individuals, at least in the long term. This paper analyzes if demand sided fiscal policies are efficient or not by observing the Turkish data for the period 1988:4-1999:1, and, the US data for the period 1980:1-1994:2. The paper follows impulse-response (IR) functions through VAR models in which consumption, GDP, tax and debt series are employed. The IR output reveals that the reactions were in the form of mirror images of each other. The paper, hence, conducts (i) the tests for the null of equal variances, (ii) pooled variance test, and, (iii) the test for the null of different variances. The relevant results yield that the mean trends of responses are equal to each other, and, that the difference between the means of the responses is equal to zero. The paper, thusly, may claim that the Turkish and US data confirm the New Classical theorem