MERKEZ BANKASI POLİTİKALARININ FİYAT İSTİKRARI VE DİĞER İKTİSADİ OLGULAR AÇISINDAN DEĞERLENDİRİLMESİ VE TÜRKİYE’DE ENFLASYON HEDEFLEMESİ ÖRNEĞİ

Abstract

A fter the oil crises and collapse of Bretton Woods system, the inflationary process made price stability the main objective of central banks at 1970s. Central banks have begun to implement monetary policy by rule not by discretion with the effect of monetarist thought, mainly associated with the work of Milton Friedman. Therefore, in recent years a growing consensus has emerged for price stability as the overriding, longrun goal of monetary policy of central banking. Commonly an intermediate targeting (nominal anchor) is determined, and this determined targeting is carried out by central banks with the short-term interest rates and other monetary policy instruments to achieve the goal under the stabilization programs implemented. By this way, it is more easier to break the inflationary expectations, because a constraint is put on a determined macroeconomic variable (money supply, inflation or exchange rate constraints).Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) announced its first monetary targeting program to public in 1990, and has begun to implement monetary policy by rules. Although CBRT had to suspend its commitment to play monetary policy by rule because of Gulf War, domestic and international economis crises, CBRT has applied four different monetary policy intermediate regimes in past 20 years for price stability goal:1) Monetary targeting, 2) exchange-rate targeting, 3)implicit inflation targeting, and 4) explicit inflation targeting regime. In this study, in the historical process, firstly central banking and the monetary policies applied and its tools are analyzed, and then intermediate targeting regimes, monetary policies, intermediate regimes and recent crises occurred in Turkey are examined. The study then concludes with an econometric part figuring out the factors affecting the performance criterion of CBRT and their effect level during 1990-2011 period. According ekonometric results of our study CBRT has implemented a rule-like monetary policy, instead rule, during the period