Sources of Regional Crime Persistence Argentina 1980-2008

Abstract

Crime rates vary considerably by region and these differences are found to be persistent over time. The persistence of differences in regional crime rates over time may be explained by two factors. First, differences in the regional institutional and socio-economic conditions that determine crime equilibrium levels are persistent over time. Second, the effects of shocks affecting the crime rate are persistent over time. The aim of this paper is to disentangle these two sources of regional crime persistence in Argentinean regions over 1980-2008 and subperiods for different typologies of crime. Controlling for socio-economic and deterrence effect variables, we specify an econometric model to test the persistence of shocks to crime. Results support high persistence of the effects of shocks to crime. Resume