Моделирование рейтингов российских банков

Abstract

The paper presents econometric analysis of the of Russian banks ratings, and the experts’ opinion based on a survey, designed in a framework of the project. From the ratings and the survey we derived the factors that in the experts’ opinion and in the rating agencies’ opinion are most important for bank reliability. The models of the ratings and experts’ opinions were designed for real and virtual banks. We constructed the model ratings of the Russian banks. These models use only publicly available information and hence could be used as an early warning system of the current bank reliability