Follow the leader: Mexico hurt by U.S. slowdown

Abstract

As economic conditions in the United States have faltered, the impact on the Mexican economy has been negative. The short-term consensus projections for Mexico reflect this and suggest that the downturn is not likely to loosen its grip on the Mexican economy until the second half of 2009 or even early 2010. Panelist projections for real gross domestic product (GDP) in 2009 are consistently negative, ranging from a relatively moderate contraction of -0.8 percent to a fairly sharp decline of -4.0 percent. The consensus GDP forecast anticipates GDP will shrink by -2.2 percent in 2009