Optimal Strategies for Automated Traders in a Producer-Consumer Futures Market

Abstract

The aim of this work is to show how automated traders can operate a futures market. First, we established some hypothesises on the properties of the ’correct’ price pattern which translates accurately the underlying moves in the supply/demand balance and the nominal price, then mathematical measures were derived allowing to estimate the efficiency of a given trading strategy. As a starting step, we applied our approach to a simplified market setup where only two automated traders, a producer and a consumer, can trade. They receive a stream of forecasts on supply and demand levels and they should react instantaneously by adjusting these forecasts, then issuing sale and buy orders. Later, we suggested a parameterized trading strategy for the two automatons. Finally, we obtained by simulation the optimal parameters of this strategy in some particular cases