From Hypotheses and Scenarios Toward Forecast-Initiated Action Platforms for Decision-making in Networks Utilization of Forecasting in Business and Governmental Operations
Only abstract. Paper copies of master’s theses are listed in the Helka database (http://www.helsinki.fi/helka). Electronic copies of master’s theses are either available as open access or only on thesis terminals in the Helsinki University Library.Vain tiivistelmä. Sidottujen gradujen saatavuuden voit tarkistaa Helka-tietokannasta (http://www.helsinki.fi/helka). Digitaaliset gradut voivat olla luettavissa avoimesti verkossa tai rajoitetusti kirjaston opinnäytekioskeilla.Endast sammandrag. Inbundna avhandlingar kan sökas i Helka-databasen (http://www.helsinki.fi/helka). Elektroniska kopior av avhandlingar finns antingen öppet på nätet eller endast tillgängliga i bibliotekets avhandlingsterminaler.The earlier futures studies have not focused on the continuous transformation of the future-oriented knowledge into practice. A clear market for transforming this knowledge has been discovered. The lack of a proper paradigm has hindered the futures researchers in building a proper relation between the accuracy of results and the corresponding decision-making situation. This has decreased the utilisation of futures research. Therefore, I created a new method to make accurate forecasts for the decision-making moment. The core idea is co-operation of many actors in creating and using the future-oriented knowledge. This joint forecasting and guidance system leads to a functional paradigm of futures research, which connects global responsibilities to joint short-term activities. Fourteen case studies leaded to a new method and paradigm. Firstly, I discovered a distinction between the creation of future-shaping innovations and external pressures of change. Secondly, I formulated change patterns in the phenomena being forecasted. These patterns gave a methodological base for individual studies needed in the system. Thirdly, I developed a systematic co-operation of the actors in the production and utilisation of the forecasts. The last step was the formulation of the platforms needed in guidance and execution of the forecasted actions. The stepwise lift model for labour qualifications and the open technology strategy are especially needed as platforms for the public sector and the private enterprises to combine their development efforts. The joint actors of the forecasting and guidance system can systematically co-operate in the production and usage of new future-oriented knowledge. Technically, the system includes procedures to increase the accuracy of anticipated knowledge during the time between the first forecast and the moment the decision has to be made. Accordingly, this study introduces methods with which one can evaluate proper investments that create sustainable growth. Thereafter, platforms to create successful product oriented employment in coherence with long term global responsibility are a vital part of the joint system. Isolated futures studies are outside of the core of the functional paradigm of futures studies. The new core consists of continuous, repeated and co-ordinated work between the joint producers and users of knowledge
