The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), whose work played a major role in the ‘historic’ agreement reached at the 21st Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP 21) in Paris in December 2015, has shown that the Mediterranean Basin is one of the most vulnerable areas of the planet to climate change. COP 22 will take place in Marrakesh from 7 to 18 November but ahead of this event, Morocco hosted MedCOP Climate, the Mediterranean c..

Moatti, Jean-Paul

Thiébault, Stéphanie

OpenEdition

 
Stéphanie Thiébault and Jean-Paul Moatti (dir.)
The Mediterranean Region under Climate Change. A
Scientific Update: Abridged English/French Version
IRD Éditions
Introduction. Climate change in the Mediterranean
Stéphanie Thiébault and Jean-Paul Moatti
DOI: 10.4000/books.irdeditions.24582
Publisher: IRD Éditions
Place of publication: IRD Éditions
Year of publication: 2016
Published on OpenEdition Books: 19 November 2018
Serie: Synthèses
Electronic ISBN: 9782709922555
http://books.openedition.org
Electronic reference
THIÉBAULT, Stéphanie ; MOATTI, Jean-Paul. Introduction. Climate change in the Mediterranean In: The
Mediterranean Region under Climate Change. A Scientific Update: Abridged English/French Version [online].
Marseille: IRD Éditions, 2016 (generated 05 octobre 2020). Available on the Internet: <http://
books.openedition.org/irdeditions/24582>. ISBN: 9782709922555. DOI: https://doi.org/10.4000/
books.irdeditions.24582.
17
 Introduction
 Climate change in the Mediterranean
 Stéphanie THIÉBAULT
Director of the Institut écologie et environnement (INEE) 
at the Centre National de la Recherche Scientifi que (CNRS), 
Vice-President of  ‘Coordination of scientifi c programming and forecasting’ 
at the French National Alliance for Environmental Research (ALLENVI)
 Jean-Paul MOATTI
Chairman and Executive Director of French National Research Institute 
for Sustainable Development (IRD),  Vice-President of  ‘European 
and international cooperation’ at ALLENVI
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), whose work played a 
major role in the ‘historic’ agreement reached at the 21st Conference of the Parties 
to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP 21) in Paris 
in December 2015, has shown that the Mediterranean Basin is one of the most 
vulnerable areas of the planet to climate change. COP 22 will take place in Marrakesh 
from 7 to 18 November but ahead of this event, Morocco hosted MedCOP Climate, 
the Mediterranean climate forum for all governmental and non-State bodies on 18 
and 19 July in Tangier in order to build on the work begun during MedCOP 21 in 
Marseille the previous year. In his introductory speech at MedCOP 22, His Majesty 
Mohammed VI, King of Morocco, stressed the Mediterranean’s duty to set an 
example by creating new consumption and production patterns and developing 
innovative approaches to combating climate change.
In response to a request from the Moroccan authorities, particularly Environment 
Minister Mrs Hakima El Haité, the 28 ALLENVI members have published a 
remarkable summary work for COP 22. This work aims to provide an overview 
of high-level scientific research on climate change, the consequences of this 
climate imbalance and mitigation and adaptation solutions specific to the 
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 The Mediterranean Region under Climate Change
18
Mediterranean. It demonstrates the remarkable work carried out by scientists, 
researchers and academics on both shores of the Mediterranean to understand 
the mechanisms of climate change both today and in the long term, and the 
impact of climate imbalance on the environment, the economy, health and society. 
It also suggests and recommends responses based on ‘scientific evidence’, 
including adaptation, resilience, conservation of resources and risk prevention. 
This book is the work of a broad scientific community which has been working 
together for a number of years to capture the complexity of the Mediterranean 
situation and create the conditions for better mutual knowledge of the interlinking 
scientific issues that will be defined step-by-step with a view to breaking down 
the barriers between disciplines. 
This work does not claim to be exhaustive, despite the diversity and quality of 
the contributions it contains. Certain key themes, such as the role of reducing 
greenhouse gas emissions and energy innovations in mitigation processes, are 
mentioned only briefly. Furthermore, certain chapters highlight the limitations 
of the results that have been obtained (for example the limited observations and 
climate simulations in the study on extreme hydrological events and the lack of 
long-term data on the impact of climate change on human health), revealing 
subjects for up-and-coming or future research.
Readers will be able to form their own idea of the significance of the various 
contributions, but we believe that the scientific community is issuing a clear 
three-part message to public decision-makers, European and international 
institutions, economic and civil society organisations and, more broadly speaking, 
public opinion and all citizens. 
The first message is that science has established beyond all doubt that climate 
change is a fact and that Mediterranean societies and ecosystems are some of 
the most susceptible to these developments.
The Mediterranean is a ‘miniature’ laboratory due to its geological past, its 
semi-arid environment with a climate intrinsically different from that of temperate 
zones as a result of its significant inter-seasonal variations and its role in the 
turbulent history of human societies. Although it represents only 1.5% of the 
earth’s surface, the Mediterranean is a ‘test area’ that is home to, and indeed 
tends to exacerbate, almost all the potentially catastrophic issues facing the 
entire planet; these include natural risks, global warming, changes in the water 
cycle, changes to soil and vegetation functions, modifications to biological 
diversity and biodiversity damage, the unequal distribution of resources and the 
scaling back of political, economic and social relations between north and south, 
leading to conflict, large-scale migration, land occupation and rapid urbanisation 
and coastal development. In addition, it is important to remember the central or 
peripheral effect the Mediterranean area has on its neighbours, for example the 
role of Mediterranean climate extremes on the various components of the Earth 
system and the role of hydrological exchanges with the Black Sea and the 
Atlantic, as water from the Mediterranean flows through the Strait of Gibraltar 
and affects the European climate. 
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19
Introduction 
The Mediterranean is now a major area of investigation for researchers in every 
scientific field. The modalities and importance of human activity and its ability 
to reveal completely new perspectives are some of the key themes currently 
being studied by the scientific community. New approaches to research, which 
are reviewed in this work, are essential if we are to understand the way in which 
they operate and develop, whether in terms of systematic approaches to 
modelling, integration or investigations. 
In the current context where, in the absence of radical countermeasures, a global 
temperature increase of 1.4 to 5.8°C is expected (3 to 7°C for the Mediterranean 
region by the end of the 21st century), it was the deep waters of the Mediterranean 
that first registered the greenhouse gas effect and where changes to thermohaline 
circulation were observed. Scenarios predict that these changes will continue 
and that there will be a significant reduction in the convection phenomena that 
lead to the oxygenation of the Basin; this will inevitably affect biogeochemical 
cycles as well as the ecosystem and its resources. In this region in particular, 
global changes seem to affect the frequency of extreme events such as 
cyclogeneses, hydrometeorological or wind phenomena, droughts and soil 
degradation. 
Research must lead to advances in knowledge, so that we can i) improve our 
understanding of climate change and its features and mechanisms. This will 
involve studying past climate cycles and the ways in which societies have 
responded to them, the latest results reported in this book relating to the water 
cycle, the origin and frequency of extreme events, groundwater (continental, 
coastal and deepwater) dynamics and seasonal and long-term variability; ii) 
quantify flows between compartments and their impact on the system, so we 
can study air quality and active pollutants and understand their impact on human 
health; iii) characterise the dispersal and intensity of the main practices affecting 
marine and continental ecosystems. This involves assessing impacts and 
vulnerabilities in relation to marine resources and ecosystems, with particular 
focus on the coastal area. The effects on continental ecosystems are more 
specifically related to terrestrial biodiversity, particularly forests; iv) study the 
assessment of the Basin, including the direct impact of global warming on health; 
v) finally, evaluate and manage risks through adaptation, resilience, conservation 
of resources and prevention.
Although observations and models based on physical, chemical and biological 
approaches allow researchers to understand and quantify the processes mentioned 
above, one of the key areas for reflection must focus on the way in which these 
processes are affected by human activity and the resultant consequences for the 
evolution of the changing ecosystems. By changing the climate and river systems, 
changing the chemistry of the atmosphere, lands and water and tapping into 
natural resources, we are in fact changing the functioning and value of the 
ecosystem itself. 
Only with a systematic approach can we document the current ‘crisis’ caused 
by human activity and particularly noticeable in the Mediterranean, and answer 
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 The Mediterranean Region under Climate Change
20
questions on the risks related to usages, practices and social views. These risks 
are linked to i) the geodynamic (seismic, volcanic and gravitational) context; 
ii) climate (droughts, fires, coastal erosion, changes to marine dynamics and 
biogeochemical cycles); iii) industrialisation, urbanisation and transport (pollution 
of air, water, soil and living resources); iv) usages and practices relating to the 
quantity and quality of mineral and living resources, biodiversity (land, aquatic 
and marine), its functions and its services.
This approach to the functioning and functions of the coupled system requires 
infrastructures and methods for observing and analysing environments and 
peoples and local strategies adapted to the long term and the short term as well 
as to the significant seasonal variations found in the Mediterranean. Models and 
scenarios exist, but need to be improved and regionalised, and other integrated 
digital tools must be developed. This book is a contribution, albeit a modest 
one, to the work bravely launched by our Moroccan colleagues so that COP 22 
could be an opportunity to support research and the strengthening of the 
technological and scientific capacities at the heart of climate negotiations. The 
scientific community is hoping that one of the consequences of this work could 
be the creation of an inter-country, inter-ministerial and inter-regional authority 
operational working group to begin the important, in terms of both knowledge 
and action, work of creating a coordinated observation and surveillance system 
for Mediterranean anthropo-ecosystems.
The contributions included in this book directly and candidly stress the many 
remaining uncertainties regarding the real dynamics of the impact of climate 
change, both in general and across the different spatial scales of the Mediterranean 
basin.
The second message of this work, however, is that these uncertainties must not 
be used as an excuse for inaction. On the contrary, they must encourage us to 
better understand the complex causal chains that link climate and the other 
environmental and anthropic parameters, and to take immediate action to 
minimise those effects of global change that are threatening the environment 
and human health and well-being. Some of the contributions show that research 
provides direct scientific bases for improved management of environments, 
resources and heritage, for the preservation and strengthening of biodiversity 
and ecosystem services and for spreading concepts and relevant knowledge 
throughout society so they reach both decision-makers and the parties involved. 
In so doing, science is not content to merely report on the risks; it also proposes 
innovative solutions that could allow us to overcome the barriers currently 
restricting climate change mitigation and make them easier to adapt, by 
considering the specific environmental and societal context of a region such as 
the Mediterranean. 
The third message is that science is best placed to link the fight against climate 
change, sustainable development goals and development funding, in accordance 
with the desire expressed by Christiana Figueres, the previous Executive 
Secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change 
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21
Introduction 
(UNFCCC), who stated that ‘the solutions to climate change offer a portfolio 
of no-regret policies and actions that are essential for achieving sustainable 
development’. 
The redefinition of the international agenda in 2015 imposed on us a duty to 
do so. Prior to COP 21 in December 2015, the 3rd international conference on 
financing development took place in Addis Ababa in July, followed by the United 
Nations Summit in New York in September which saw the adoption of the 17 
new Sustainable Development Goals (SDG); these are universal goals that, 
according to the summary report by Secretary General Ban Ki Moon, will create 
a road to ‘dignity for all by 2030’, by ‘ending poverty, transforming all lives 
and protecting the planet’. As is the case with all international agreements, both 
the SDGs and the content of the Paris Agreement on climate change, whose 
initial operational measures are due to be consolidated at COP 22, represented 
progress we can be proud of, despite the fact that they were inevitably the result 
of a compromise between different and even contradictory interests and between 
governments with a large number of downright divergent geostrategic visions 
and constraints. 
The wording of the SDGs reveals inconsistencies that could, if care is not taken, 
be exacerbated by their implementation; a short-term vision of the requirements 
for combating poverty or achieving food safety (SDG1 and 2) may, for example, 
result in technological and economic choices that in the medium term jeopardise 
the achievement of SDGs 15, 14 and 13 on the preservation of life on land, life 
below water and combating the effects of global warming respectively. Likewise, 
meeting the energy needs of developing countries on the southern shore of the 
Mediterranean and on the African continent in the short term may come into 
conflict with the need to reduce the carbon intensity of economies in order to 
combat global warming. And there are many similar examples. Scientific progress 
can reasonably be expected to produce solutions for reconciling sustainable 
development goals, creating innovative multi-party coalitions that will be able 
to impose these solutions in practice and providing enough of the global public 
goods that the planet needs and of which climate security is one of the best 
examples. 
It has been shown that mankind is finding it very difficult to obtain these public 
resources to meet the global challenges that, by their very essence, transcend 
national borders, because it comes up against what political science researchers 
call the ‘Westphalian paradigm’, from the name of the 1648 European treaty 
that for the first time created an international order based on the strict respecting 
of State sovereignty. Thousands of years of history and the current situation in 
the Mediterranean have provided many examples of this paradigm. Let’s hope 
that work to combat global warming, in which Morocco and France consider 
themselves to play a leading role, will help to make the Mediterranean an 
example of how to move beyond this paradigm and demonstrate solidarity 
between stakeholders, governments and populations facing joint threats and 
helping to promote development for the good of all mankind.
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