In PNAS, McDermott et al. (1) analyze a 2014-2016 central Pacific fishing surge, focusing on the Phoenix Islands Protected Area (PIPA) inside the Kiribati exclusive economic zone (EEZ). The authors incorrectly attribute the surge to the anticipated industrial fishing closure of PIPA and describe the phenomenon as a blue paradox (i.e., an unintended negative consequence of a conservation policy). However, a broader analysis demonstrates that this surge was unrelated to the closure of PIPA and was due to a strong El Ni~no event that created a fishing surge across multiple EEZs and high seas, not just PIPA (2)

Aqorau, Transform

Bailey, Megan

Campbell, Brooke M

Gray, Noella

Gruby, Rebecca

Hampton, John

Hanich, Quentin A

Ota, Yoshitaka

Parris, Hannah

Reid, Chris

Rotjan, Randi

Sumaila, Rashid

Swartz, Wilf

English

Research Online

University of WollongongResearch OnlineFaculty of Law, Humanities and the Arts - Papers Faculty of Law, Humanities and the Arts2018Unraveling the blue paradox: Incomplete analysisyields incorrect conclusions about Phoenix IslandsProtected Area closureQuentin A. HanichUniversity of Wollongong, hanich@uow.edu.auRandi RotjanBoston UniversityTransform AqorauUniversity of WollongongMegan BaileyDalhousie UniversityBrooke M. CampbellUniversity of Wollongong, brookec@uow.edu.auSee next page for additional authorsResearch Online is the open access institutional repository for the University of Wollongong. For further information contact the UOW Library:research-pubs@uow.edu.auPublication DetailsHanich, Q., Rotjan, R., Aqorau, T., Bailey, M., Campbell, B., Gray, N., Gruby, R., Hampton, J., Ota, Y., Parris, H., Reid, C., Sumaila, U.Rashid. & Swartz, W. (2018). Unraveling the blue paradox: Incomplete analysis yields incorrect conclusions about Phoenix IslandsProtected Area closure. PNAS, 115 (52), E12122-E12123.Unraveling the blue paradox: Incomplete analysis yields incorrectconclusions about Phoenix Islands Protected Area closureAbstractIn PNAS, McDermott et al. (1) analyze a 2014-2016 central Pacific fishing surge, focusing on the PhoenixIslands Protected Area (PIPA) inside the Kiribati exclusive economic zone (EEZ). The authors incorrectlyattribute the surge to the anticipated industrial fishing closure of PIPA and describe the phenomenon as a blueparadox (i.e., an unintended negative consequence of a conservation policy). However, a broader analysisdemonstrates that this surge was unrelated to the closure of PIPA and was due to a strong El Ni~no event thatcreated a fishing surge across multiple EEZs and high seas, not just PIPA (2).Keywordsunraveling, blue, paradox:, incomplete, analysis, yields, incorrect, area, conclusions, closure, about, phoenix,islands, protectedDisciplinesArts and Humanities | LawPublication DetailsHanich, Q., Rotjan, R., Aqorau, T., Bailey, M., Campbell, B., Gray, N., Gruby, R., Hampton, J., Ota, Y., Parris,H., Reid, C., Sumaila, U. Rashid. & Swartz, W. (2018). Unraveling the blue paradox: Incomplete analysisyields incorrect conclusions about Phoenix Islands Protected Area closure. PNAS, 115 (52), E12122-E12123.AuthorsQuentin A. Hanich, Randi Rotjan, Transform Aqorau, Megan Bailey, Brooke M. Campbell, Noella Gray,Rebecca Gruby, John Hampton, Yoshitaka Ota, Hannah Parris, Chris Reid, Rashid Sumaila, and Wilf SwartzThis journal article is available at Research Online: https://ro.uow.edu.au/lhapapers/3863LETTERUnraveling the blue paradox: Incomplete analysisyields incorrect conclusions about PhoenixIslands Protected Area closureQuentin Hanicha,b,1, Randi Rotjanc, Transform Aqoraua, Megan Baileyd, Brooke Campbella,b, Noella Graye,Rebecca Grubyf, John Hamptong, Yoshitaka Otab,h, Hannah Parrisa, Chris Reidi, U. Rashid Sumailaj,and Wilf Swartzb,jIn PNAS, McDermott et al. (1) analyze a 2014–2016central Pacific fishing surge, focusing on the PhoenixIslands Protected Area (PIPA) inside the Kiribati exclu-sive economic zone (EEZ). The authors incorrectly at-tribute the surge to the anticipated industrial fishingclosure of PIPA and describe the phenomenon as ablue paradox (i.e., an unintended negative conse-quence of a conservation policy). However, a broaderanalysis demonstrates that this surge was unrelated tothe closure of PIPA and was due to a strong El Ni~noevent that created a fishing surge across multiple EEZsand high seas, not just PIPA (2).McDermott et al. (1) do not consider regional datathat reveal confounding factors. Long-term catch datademonstrate that central Pacific fishing surges occur atirregular intervals, consistent with El Ni~no SouthernOscillation patterns (3). Data held by the Pacific Com-munity (4) indicate that fishing surges also occurred inthe central Pacific in 1994, 1997, 2002, and 2009,when El Ni~no conditions were prevalent (5). In 2014,19.8% of purse seine effort occurred in the centralPacific, but then it increased to 31.4% in 2015, afterPIPA was closed. This compares with an average of9.3% for 1980–2017, providing further evidence thatsurges were caused by El Ni~no events and were un-related to the PIPA closure.Furthermore, the study used two distant archipel-agos as control sites, without considering regionalreports and data that demonstrate that these controlsites host significantly different fisheries, with highlyvariable ratios of fishing between PIPA and thesecontrol sites (6). A more appropriate control would beto examine fishing in the Phoenix Islands EEZ insideand outside of PIPA, where oceanographic and fisher-ies characteristics are more similar.McDermott et al. (1) appear to have missed theseconfounding factors because they limited their studyto a recently developed database of vessel locationdata derived from the Automatic Identification Sys-tem, which was not made compulsory for fishing ves-sels until after the period of the study (7). Consequently,vessel coverage is unknown, and significant limitationsin the vessel data and satellite coverage during this timeundermine its application without corroboration withother data sources (8).Lastly, the study relies on behavioral assumptionsthat do not apply in a migratory fishery operated byforeign vessels in EEZs where the coastal state owns allfishing rights and catch history (9). While Kiribati isrequired to provide access to surplus catch, this isentirely at its discretion, and there is no obligation toprovide rights or compensation to foreign vessels (10).Vessel operators, therefore, have no incentive toswitch from more productive grounds in anticipationof a closure, as this will reduce profitability andthere is little, or no, prospect of their obtaining ben-efits in the longer term. In our experience, vesselswill fish as hard as they can in whichever area ismost productive and accessible through licensingarrangements.We welcome studies of concepts such as the blueparadox but recommend that future studies considerall relevant databases and apply a multidisciplinaryapproach to best inform marine conservation policy.aAustralian National Centre for Ocean Resources and Security, University of Wollongong, Wollongong, NSW 2522, Australia; bNereus Program,Seattle, WA 98105; cBiology Department, Boston University, Boston, MA 02215; dMarine Affairs Program, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS, CanadaB3H 4R2; eDepartment of Geography, Environment and Geomatics, University of Guelph, Guelph, ON, Canada N1G 2W1; fDepartment of HumanDimensions of Natural Resources, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523; gOceanic Fisheries Program, Pacific Community, 98848Noumea, New Caledonia; hSchool of Marine and Environmental Affairs, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195; iFisheries DevelopmentDivision, Pacific Islands Forum Fisheries Agency, Honiara, Solomon Islands; and jInstitute for the Oceans and Fisheries, Fisheries EconomicsResearch Unit, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada V6T 1Z4Author contributions: Q.H., R.R., T.A., M.B., Y.O., and U.R.S. designed research; Q.H., R.R., N.G., R.G., J.H., C.R., U.R.S., and W.S. performedresearch; R.R. and J.H. analyzed data; and Q.H., R.R., B.C., J.H., and H.P. wrote the paper.Conflict of interest statement: Q.H. is a technical advisor to the PIPA Trust, and R.R. is a PIPA co-chief scientist.Published under the PNAS license.1To whom correspondence should be addressed. Email: hanich@uow.edu.au.www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.1815600115 PNAS Latest Articles | 1 of 2LETTER1 McDermott GR, Meng KC, McDonald GG, Costello CJ (2018) The blue paradox: Preemptive overfishing in marine reserves. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA, 10.1073/pnas.1802862115.2 Williams P, Reid C (2018) Overview of tuna fisheries in the Western and Central Pacific Ocean, including economic conditions – 2017. WCPFC-SC14-GN-WP01(Western & Central Pacific Fisheries Commission, Federated States of Micronesia). Available at https://www.wcpfc.int/node/32051. Accessed September 10,2018.3 Lehodey P, Bertignac M, Hampton J, Lewis A, Picaut J (1997) El Ni~no Southern Oscillation and tuna in the western Pacific. Nature 389:715–718.4 Western & Central Pacific Fisheries Commission (2018) Public domain aggregated catch/effort data (Western & Central Pacific Fisheries Commission, FederatedStates of Micronesia). Available at https://www.wcpfc.int/node/4648. Accessed September 10, 2018.5 Rayner NA, et al. (2003) Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century. J Geophys Res108:4407.6 Western & Central Pacific Fisheries Commission (2018) Kiribati annual reports 2006–2017. Scientific Committee to the Western and Central Pacific FisheriesCommission. Available at https://www.wcpfc.int/meeting-folders/scientific-committee. Accessed September 10, 2018.7 Norris W (2015) FFA vessel register requirement for AIS from 1-Jul-2015. Available at https://www.ffa.int/system/files/REG14_FFA%20Letter%20AIS%20From%201July2015.pdf. Accessed September 10, 2018.8 Roberts M, et al. (2016) Conservation science and policy applications of themarine vessel Automatic Identification System (AIS) – A review. Bull Mar Sci 92:75–103.9 Western & Central Pacific Fisheries Commission (2016) Conservation and management measure for bigeye, yellowfin and skipjack tuna in theWestern and CentralPacific Ocean. CMM2017-01 (Western & Central Pacific Fisheries Commission, Federated States of Micronesia). Available at https://www.wcpfc.int/conservation-and-management-measures. Accessed September 10, 2018.10 United Nations (1982) United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. Opened for signature 10 December 1982; entered into force 16 November 1994;Montego Bay, Jamaica (1982). International Legal Materials 21:1261–1354.2 of 2 | www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.1815600115 Hanich et al.

Unraveling the blue paradox: Incomplete analysis yields incorrect conclusions about Phoenix Islands Protected Area closure

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Unraveling the blue paradox: Incomplete analysis yields incorrect conclusions about Phoenix Islands Protected Area closure

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