'Faculty of Political Science, University of Zagreb'
Doi
Abstract
Autor razmatra politički profil Alternative za Njemačku kako bi pridonio razumijevanju njezine pojave u političkom životu Njemačke. Analizom izbornih programa provjerava njezin položaj na osi lijevo-desno te stavove o europskim integracijama, nacionalizmu i multikulturalizmu, te o ekonomskoj politici i demokraciji. Multivarijantnom regresijskom analizom ispituje prediktivnu snagu konfesionalnih, dobnih, obrazovnih, migracijskih i ekonomskih obilježja izbornih okruga u objašnjenju varijacije u postotku glasova. Istraživanjem biografskih obilježja članova vodstva stranke testira se pretpostavljena zajednička demografska i ideološka pozadina stranačke elite. Pokazalo se da Alternativa za Njemačku odudara od stavova drugih stranaka u gledanjima na Europsku uniju, nacionalizam, multikulturalizam i ekonomsku politiku, ali ne odskače značajno na osi lijevo-desno, kao ni prema stavovima o demokraciji. Za predikciju glasovanja za tu stranku najvažnijima su se pokazala regionalna (rascjep istok-zapad), dobna i ekonomska obilježja izbornih okruga. Biografska analiza stranačke elita otkriva visok postotak bivših članova njemačkih demokršćanskih stranaka, te prevlast starijih visokoobrazovanih muškaraca u njoj.This paper analyzes the political profile of the Alternative for Germany to contribute to the understanding of its emergence in the German political life. An analysis of electoral manifestos tests the party’s left-right position, stances on European integration, nationalism, and multiculturalism as well as on economic policy and democracy. A multiple regression analysis examines the predictive power of religion, age, education, migration, and economic status as characteristics of electoral districts explaining the variation in the party’s vote percentage. An assessment of biographies of the party’s leadership tests the presumed common demographic and ideologic background of the party elite. The article shows that new party differs from other German parties regarding the EU, nationalism, and multiculturalism, and economic policy, yet does not represent an outlier on the left-right scale, nor in its stance on democracy. The study of predictors of the vote for the Alternative for Germany has shown that regional (East/West cleavage), age and economic characteristics of electoral districts hold most importance. The biographic analysis of the party elite reveals a high percentage of previous CDU/CSU members and a dominance of elderly, well-educated men
