As the general election campaign for Governor enters the symbolic starting point of Labor Day, the Democratic candidate Mark Dayton is deadlocked with the Republican candidate Tom Emmer, 34% for Dayton compared to 34% for Emmer. The Independence Party candidate Tom Horner is drawing 13% support.Center for the Study of Politics and Governance, Humphrey School of Public Affairs, UM

Jacobs, Lawrence

Miller, Joanne M.

University of Minnesota Digital Conservancy

Minnesota Public Radio News and Humphrey Institute Poll 
 
Dayton and Emmer Deadlocked  
 
 
Report prepared by the Center for the Study of Politics and Governance 
Humphrey Institute of Public Affairs 
University of Minnesota 
 
Lawrence R. Jacobs 
Director, Center for the Study of Politics and Governance  
 
Joanne M. Miller 
Research Associate, Center for Study of Politics and Governance 
Associate Professor, Department of Political Science 
 
 
As the general election campaign for Governor enters the symbolic starting point of 
Labor Day, the Democratic candidate Mark Dayton is deadlocked with the Republican 
candidate Tom Emmer, 34% for Dayton compared to 34% for Emmer.  The 
Independence Party candidate Tom Horner is drawing 13% support. 
 
Dayton and Emmer Deadlocked in General Election Matchup 
 Dayton  Emmer  Horner  DK / 
Refused/Other
All 
Minnesotans 
34% 34% 13% 19% 
 
Some key findings:  
 
 The toss-up results from the uncertainty of a fifth of likely voters who are 
undecided, defections of both Democrats and Republicans from their party’s 
standard bearer, and splits among key voting groups.  
 
 Neither President Barack Obama nor Governor Tim Pawlenty is exerting decisive 
influence on the race early on.   
 
 Tom Horner is running a distant third place, apparently stalled in low double-
digits.  But the race is wide open and voters may be waiting to learn more about 
Horner. 
 
The survey was conducted of 750 likely voters in Minnesota between August 25 and 29, 
2010. The margin of error ranges between +/-3.6 percentage points based on the 
conventional calculation and +/-5.3 percentage points, which is a more cautious estimate 
based on professional best practices.  For smaller subgroups the margin of sampling error 
 1
is larger.  The section at the end of this report, “About the Survey,” discusses the 
statistical calculations for the margin of sampling error and how to interpret it. 
 
Explanations for Deadlock 
 
1. Partisan Defections 
 
A third of partisan are defecting from the nominees of the Democratic and Republican 
parties, draining each of a usually large and reliable base of support.  Horner is drawing a 
bit more Democrats than Republicans but is not yet attracting the kind of support he 
anticipated from his former party.  
 
Dayton and Emmer Close in General Election Matchup 
 Dayton Emmer  Horner  DK / 
Refused/Other
Republican (46%) 8% 66% 9% 17% 
Independent (13%) 23% 13% 26% 38% 
Democrat (41%) 65% 5% 15% 16% 
 
2. Dueling Backlashes 
 
Both Dayton and Emmer are suffering from voter backlashes.  Likely voters who are 
dissatisfied with the national direction, which is currently in the hands of Obama and 
congressional Democrats, are breaking by a 44% to 23% margin for Emmer rather than 
Dayton.  By contrast, voters worried that Minnesota is heading off on the wrong track are 
breaking for Dayton 39% to 30%, presumably on the grounds that Governor Pawlenty is 
the State’s chief executive and responsible for its well-being. 
 
Dueling Backlashes against bad news 
 Dayton  Emmer  Horner  DK / 
Refused/Other
US in right direction 
(29%) 
52% 15% 15% 18% 
US on wrong track 
(64%) 
23 44 14 19 
     
Mn in right direction 
(35%) 
27 41 14 18 
Mn on wrong track 
(53%) 
39 30 14 18 
(Percentages here and elsewhere may not sum to 100% owing to rounding or to the omission of respondents who did not answer as in 
the case of right direction/wrong track questions.) 
 
Pawlenty and Obama are hurting their party’s candidates.  The 45% of likely voters who 
disapprove of Pawlenty’s job performance are decidedly breaking for Dayton (58% to 
 2
Emmer’s 6%). The 52% who criticize Obama’s performance markedly favor Emmer 
(56% to Dayton’s 16%). 
 
Referendums on Obama and Pawlenty  
 Dayton  Emmer  Horner  DK / 
Refused/Other
Approval of 
Pawlenty (46%) 
13% 62% 11% 15% 
Disapproval of 
Pawlenty (45%) 
58 6 15 21 
     
Approval of Obama 
(42%) 
56 8 17 19 
Disapproval of 
Obama (52%) 
16 56 12 16 
 
Not surprising, the prospect of Obama endorsing Dayton produces a plurality of 44% 
who say they are less likely to support Dayton.  Thirty-nine percent report that they are 
less likely to support Emmer because Pawlenty has endorsed him.  Put simply, two of the 
most visible politicians in the parties exert no coattails and may actually drive away 
support.   
 
 More 
likely to 
support 
Emmer  
Less 
likely to 
support 
Emmer  
More 
likely to 
support 
Dayton  
Less likely 
to support 
Dayton  
Neither/DK / 
Refused 
Pawlenty 
endorsement of 
Emmer 
25% 39%   36% 
      
Obama 
endorsement of 
Dayton 
  30% 44% 27% 
 
 
 3
3. Divided Minnesota 
 
Minnesota’s deadlocked gubernatorial race masks a large divide within the state.  One of 
the sharpest splits is by income.  Likely voters making more than $50,000 per year are 
decidedly breaking for Emmer by a 40% to 29% margin while the less affluent are siding 
by similarly lopsided margins for Dayton (44% to 21%). 
 
Class War  
 Dayton  Emmer  Horner  DK / 
Refused/Other
Less than $50,000 44% 21% 15% 20% 
More than $50,000 29 40 14 18 
 
The class divide is mirrored by differences among education groups.  The more educated 
favor Emmer while those with less than a college education prefer Dayton. 
 
Democrats often rely on the lopsided support of women to win elections.  Early in the 
2010 gubernatorial race, there is not a particularly significant gender gap with 22% of 
women not yet signing up with a candidate. 
 
Gender Gap?  Not Clear Yet 
 Dayton  Emmer  Horner  DK / 
Refused/Other
Men 30 37 17 16 
Women 37 30 11 22 
 
 
Campaign wide open  
 
The general election for governor is wide open for all three candidates.  A fifth of likely 
voters have not made up their minds. In addition, more than half (53%) are not very 
interested in the race yet.  Finally, voters have not yet formed decisive views about the 
candidates and their personality traits – they enjoy equal ratings for leadership and 
Dayton is recognized for having more experience but few other sharp differences are 
evident early on. 
 
Tom Horner has not yet capitalized on his GOP roots to lure substantial Republican 
support.  Yet, there is ample room for him to build support.   
 
 4
 
About the Survey 
 
This survey is a collaboration between Minnesota Public Radio News and the Center for 
the Study of Politics and Governance at the University of Minnesota’s Humphrey 
Institute of Public Affairs.  The survey was analyzed by the Center.  The research team 
was Lawrence R. Jacobs (Center Director) and Joanne M. Miller (Associate Professor, 
Department of Political Science).  Charles Gregory provided research assistance. 
 
The survey was fielded by the Information Specialists Group (ISG) and is based on a 
landline random digit dial survey in Minnesota.  ISG called a sample of telephone 
exchanges that was randomly selected by a computer from a list of active residential 
exchanges within Minnesota.  Within each exchange, random digits were added to form a 
complete telephone number, thus permitting access to both listed and unlisted numbers.  
Within each household, one adult was selected to be the respondent for the survey. 
 
As is common with public opinion surveys, the data were weighted. In the first stage, the 
data were weighted based on the number of potential survey respondents and the number 
of landline telephone numbers in the household. In the second stage, data were weighted 
according to cell phone usage, as well as gender, age, race, and Hispanic ethnicity to 
approximate the demographic characteristics of the population according to the Census. 
 
 Results are based on a model that accounts for the likelihood of a respondent voting 
based on the following factors: self-reported probability of voting in the upcoming 
election, voting in the 2006 gubernatorial election as reported by the respondent, interest 
in the 2010 election, and whether the respondent reported being registered to vote.  The 
model estimates a turnout of 59%, which we expect to increase during the fall as the 
campaign heats up and interest in the election increases. 
 
The key characteristics of the sample’s likely voters in Minnesota are the following:  
 
  Likely Voters  
Republican 46% 
Independent 13% 
Democrat 41% 
    
Men 49%  
Women 52%  
    
18-40 26%  
41-50 24%  
51-63                   25% 
64 and older 25%  
(Percentages here and above may round to higher than 100% due to rounding.) 
 
 5
750 likely voters living in Minnesota were interviewed by telephone between August 25 
and 29, 2010.  The margin of error ranges between +/-3.6 percentage points based on the 
conventional calculation and +/-5.3 percentage points, which is a more cautious estimate 
that takes into account design effects, in accordance with professional best practices.  The 
conventional calculation of the margin of sampling error is primarily based on the 
number of respondents and, critically, assumes that all respondents selected for 
interviewing were actually reached.  No public opinion survey successfully contacts the 
entire sample and therefore the professional best practice is to adjust for the actual 
response rate and for other design effects, producing a higher margin of sampling error.  
In this report, we use the conventional calculation to determine the minimal level of 
significance and the more cautious calculation to reach a higher level of confidence in the 
results.   
Using the design-effect calculation of the margin of sample error, in 19 cases out of 20 
the results among Minneapolis voters will differ (in theory) by no more than +/-5.3 
percentage points in either direction from what would have been obtained by 
interviewing all likely voters in the election.  The response rate is 26 percent (based on 
AAPOR response rate calculation 4).   
The results of properly conducted scientific surveys of candidate support estimate the 
most probable relative positions at the time of the interviewing.  The margin of error 
indicates a range of support with unequal probabilities of accuracy.  For example, assume 
a poll reports that Candidate A received 55% and Candidate B received 45% of support 
with a margin of error of +/-5 percentage points.  Based on normal sampling distribution, 
the 55% to 45% result is the best or most probable standing at the time of the survey.  
Taking into account the margin of sampling error, however, we can estimate the lower 
boundary of support for Candidate A as 50% and the upper boundary of support for 
Candidate B as 50%.  These results are possible but are less probable.  
 
In addition to sampling error, the practical difficulties of conducting any survey of public 
opinion may introduce sources of error into the poll. Variations in the wording and order 
of questions, for example, may lead to somewhat different results.   
 
This survey invested considerable resources in a set of procedures to reduce distortions.  
The sample of interviewees was drawn using comprehensive lists of phone exchanges.  In 
addition, the interviewers were carefully trained and monitored to maintain consistency in 
implementing the questionnaire.  Further, several steps were used to capture as much of 
the sample as possible including call backs to numbers when no one appeared to be at 
home or when the initial request to conduct the interview was not accepted.     
 
 6
Questions   
 
Suppose that the election for Governor of Minnesota were being held today. Would you 
vote for:  
1  Republican Tom Emmer 
 2 Democrat Mark Dayton 
 3 Independence Party candidate Tom Horner 
 4 Other (SPECIFY) (VOL) 
 5 Won’t vote in race (vol) 
 8 Don’t Know (vol) 
 9 Refused (vol) 
 
Generally speaking, would you say things in Minnesota are heading in the right direction, 
or are they off on the wrong track? 
 1 Right Direction 
 2 Wrong Track 
 8 Don’t Know (vol) 
 9 Refused (vol) 
 
Generally speaking, would you say things in this country are heading in the right 
direction, or are they off on the wrong track? 
 1 Right Direction 
 2 Wrong Track 
 8 Don’t Know (vol) 
 9 Refused (vol) 
 
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Tim Pawlenty is handling his job as governor?   
1 Approve 
2 Disapprove 
 8 Don’t Know (vol) 
 9 Refused (vol) 
 
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?    
1 Approve 
2 Disapprove  
 8 Don’t Know (vol) 
 9 Refused (vol) 
 
Governor Tim Pawlenty endorsed Tom Emmer for Governor.  Does that make you more 
likely to vote for Emmer or less likely to vote for him? 
1 More likely 
2 Less Likely 
3 Neither (vol) 
8 Don’t know (vol)  
9 Refused (vol) 
 
 7
 8
26. If President Barack Obama endorsed Mark Dayton for Governor, would that make 
you more likely to vote for Dayton or less likely to vote for him? 
1 More likely 
2 Less Likely 
3 Neither (vol) 
8 Don’t know (vol) 
9 Refused (vol) 
 
 


Dayton and Emmer Deadlocked

https://conservancy.umn.edu/bitstream/handle/11299/194871/0831.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y

Dayton and Emmer Deadlocked

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