Guryev, E. S.

Poluyan, L. V.

Syutkina, E. V.

IOP Conference Series Materials Science and Engineering

Institutional repository of Ural Federal University named after the first President of Russia B.N.Yeltsin

1Content from this work may be used under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 licence. Any further distributionof this work must maintain attribution to the author(s) and the title of the work, journal citation and DOI.Published under licence by IOP Publishing Ltd1234567890ICCATS 2017 IOP PublishingIOP Conf. Series: Materials Science and Engineering 262 (2017) 012199 doi:10.1088/1757-899X/262/1/012199      Software Systems for Prediction and Immediate Assessment of Emergency Situations on Municipalities Territories L V Poluyan1,2, E V Syutkina2 and E S Guryev1, 2  1Science and Engineering Centre "Reliability and Safety of Large Systems and Machines", Russian Academy of Sciences, 54-A, Studencheskaya st., Yekaterinburg 620049, Russia.  2Ural Federal University named after the first President of Russia B.N. Yeltsin, 19, Mira, Yekaterinburg 620002, Russia.   E-mail: sec@wekt.ru Abstract. The comparative analysis of key features of the software systems TOXI+Risk and ALOHA is presented. The authors made a comparison of domestic (TOXI+Risk) and foreign (ALOHA) software systems allowing to give the quantitative assessment of impact areas (pressure, thermal, toxic) in case of hypothetical emergencies in potentially hazardous objects of the oil, gas, chemical, petrochemical and oil-processing industry. Both software systems use different mathematical models for assessment of the release rate of a chemically hazardous substance from a storage tank and its evaporation. The comparison of the accuracy of definition of impact areas made by both software systems to verify the examples shows good convergence of both products. The analysis results showed that the ALOHA software can be actively used for forecasting and immediate assessment of emergency situations, assessment of damage as a result of emergencies on the territories of municipalities.  1.  Introduction Complexity at risk assessment is that it is difficult to assess damages adequately because of lack of reliable information. Numerous casual parameters (climatic conditions (wind and snow loads), dangerous substance characteristics (mixture or homogeneous state), equipment wear rate, etc.) exert influence on the damage scope. Risk determination with taking into account all the factors is a difficult task demanding use of methods of mathematical modeling for these parameters including interval damage estimation at the final stage [1-5]. From all the range of casual parameters exerting impact on risk magnitude the most significant ones are equipment defects, wear rate leading to its depressurization, hazardous substances emissions and emergencies development [6-10]. In this research work the authors made a comparison of domestic and foreign software systems that allowed giving quantitative assessment of impact areas (pressure, thermal, toxic) in case of hypothetical emergencies in PHOs of oil, gas, chemical, petrochemical and oil-processing industry. 2.  Comparative analysis of the software systems TOXI+Risk, ALOHA  The comparative analysis of the software systems on emergency risk assessment and emergency prediction - domestic software TOXI+Risk [11,12] and foreign software ALOHA 5.4.6 (further in the text – TOXI/TOXI+Risk, ALOHA) [13] - is presented. The software ALOHA is elaborated and 21234567890ICCATS 2017 IOP PublishingIOP Conf. Series: Materials Science and Engineering 262 (2017) 012199 doi:10.1088/1757-899X/262/1/012199      supported by Emergency Response Division under National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in cooperation with Department of Emergency Services and Environmental Protection Agency, the USA [14]. ALOHA software is intended for chemical emissions modeling for emergency rescue services and designers. It models toxic gas clouds, flammable gas clouds, BLEVEs (explosions of expanding boiling liquid vapors), torch burning, pool fire and fuel-air mixture explosions [15-17]. The domestic software system TOXI+Risk is intended for assessment of consequences of emergency emissions of hazardous substances and analysis of the emergencies risk that is used at designing and declaring of industrial and fire safety [12]. Key features of both software systems are shown in the Table 1.  Table 1. Comparison of key features of the software systems.  Comparison criterion TOXI+Risk: Module TOXI TOXI+Risk: Module Fuel-Air Mixture Explosion ALOHA Database of hazardous substances  (50)  (1000) Calculation of flowage parameters    Considering the area parameters    Considering the parameters of the spillage surface    Calculation of spillage parameters    Considering the equipment parameters    Considering the information on the emergency scenario    Calculation of heavy gases    Considering the wind direction    Calculation of risk parameters    Calculation of consequences of influence of shock waves at fuel-air mixture explosion    Calculation of consequences at fires     Development of new substances    Calculation of mixture of substances     Convenience of visual representation    Possibility of carrying out calculations for any amount of the substance     Interface for information input recommendations     Impact areas calculated in ALOHA can be displayed on the maps in MARPLOT® of the other software of CAMEO program family [13]. They can also be displayed in Google Earth or Google Maps by using the functions of export of Esri's ArcMap or ALOHA ArcMap.  The database of ALOHA consists of more than 1000 substances that is much larger than in TOXI software, but in TOXI+Risk software there is an option of development of a new substance. ALOHA is in free access in the Internet that allows using it widely by expert organizations, when training at university courses [18], by civil defense departments of municipalities, etc.  3.  Examples of comparative analysis of the software systems TOXI and ALOHA Testing of models concerned only impact areas at emergency emissions of hazardous substances.  1. On the example of the verification emergency in Decatur the calculations are performed in both software systems.  Initial data are: total volume released – 69 t, break-through parameters - width 56 cm, length 66 cm, exposure time - 10 min, environment temperature - 20 оС, area type - very cluttered [19]. In the 31234567890ICCATS 2017 IOP PublishingIOP Conf. Series: Materials Science and Engineering 262 (2017) 012199 doi:10.1088/1757-899X/262/1/012199      Figure 1 superposition of impact areas at isobutane dispersal is shown. Here and in the following figures the significance of «conditional diameter» differences is given in percent.    Fugure 1. Superposition of impact areas at explosion of isobutane fuel-air mixture in TOXI and ALOHA software systems (аrea of complete destruction of buildings (9%): (1) – TOXI, (4) - ALOHA; аrea of heavy destructions of buildings (25%): (2) – TOXI, (5) – ALOHA; аrea of complete divided glazing (49%): (3) – TOXI, (6) - ALOHA).  2. The second calculation of the verification emergency with chlorine emission is carried out for assessment of toxic impact areas. Initial data: environment temperature - 13оС, model - hazardous substance emission into the atmosphere, terrain type - centres of towns, atmosphere stability class - F, wind speed - 2 m/s, direction – SW; total volume released - 60 t, substance temperature - -3.3оС, break-through parameters - width 15 cm, length 90 cm, exposure time - 10 min. [20]. Superposition of impact areas at chlorine dispersal is shown in the Fugure 2.  Figure 2. Superposition of impact areas at chlorine dispersal in the atmosphere in ALOHA (1), TOXI (2) - (7%). 41234567890ICCATS 2017 IOP PublishingIOP Conf. Series: Materials Science and Engineering 262 (2017) 012199 doi:10.1088/1757-899X/262/1/012199      3. We consider ammonia as a heterogeneous substance. Initial data are: environment temperature - 20оС,  model -  hazardous substance emission into the atmosphere, fuel-air mixture explosion; terrain type - centres of towns, very cluttered area; atmosphere stability class - F , wind speed - 2 m/s, direction - SE, substance volume - 700 m3, exposure time - 60 min. The results of calculations for areas of toxic and explosive damage for liquefied ammonia are shown in the Figures 3, 4 respectively.   Fugure 3. Superposition of impact areas at ammonia dispersal in the atmosphere in ALOHA (1) and TOXI (2) software systems - (7%).    Fugure 4. Superposition of impact areas at explosion of ammonia fuel-air mixture in TOXI and ALOHA software systems (аrea of complete destruction of buildings (30%): (1) – TOXI, (4) - ALOHA; аrea of heavy destructions of buildings (20%): (2) – TOXI, (5) – ALOHA; аrea of complete divided glazing (26%): (3) – TOXI, (6) - ALOHA).  51234567890ICCATS 2017 IOP PublishingIOP Conf. Series: Materials Science and Engineering 262 (2017) 012199 doi:10.1088/1757-899X/262/1/012199      4. For LNG the pool fire is considered in two software systems too. Initial data are: environment temperature - 20оС, model - pool fire, total amount released - 4225 кг, substance temperature - 161.5°C. Impact areas at LNG pool fire in TOXI and ALOHA softwares are shown in the Figure 5.   Fugure 5. Impact areas at LNG pool fire in TOXI (1, 2, 3) and ALOHA (4, 5, 6) software systems; (1) and (4) - 21%, (2) and (5) -18%, (3) and (6) - 17%.  Comparison of the calculations showed the allowable limits of discrepancy between the results for assessing the areas of toxic damage and explosive effects (from 7 to 30 % depending on the complexity of the model and the initial data). 4.  Future work In our research works ALOHA software is the first block of the modular system of risk assessment which is based on risk assessment including domino estimation. The continuation of research works could be the quantitative assessment of cascade emergency development and the interval damage estimation.  5.  Сonclusion  The assessment of impact areas is a part of technogenic safety management of potentially hazardous objects and territories in modern conditions. It can be carried out both in TOXI+Risk software which enables to calculate impact areas and particularly the risk and in ALOHA software which is applied for definition of impact areas. The results of the analysis showed that ALOHA software can be actively used in educational and in educational and practical purposes for practicing the skills of forecasting and immediate assessment of emergency situations, assessment of damage as a result of emergencies on territories of municipalities. The advantages of ALOHA software include the database of more than 1000 chemically hazardous substances including compounds, convenient topographical interface, free access to downloading of the software system. It allows conducting the scientific research works expanded up to the analysis of domino effect for critical infrastructures, risk assessment and working out the actions on management of this risk. The methodology of work in ALOHA software approved in the course of the master's degree program was developed.  61234567890ICCATS 2017 IOP PublishingIOP Conf. Series: Materials Science and Engineering 262 (2017) 012199 doi:10.1088/1757-899X/262/1/012199      References  [1] Guryev E S, Poluyan L V and Timashev S A 2014 Construction of dynamic risk maps for large metropolitan areas J. of Risk Analysis and Crisis Response 4(2) pp 72–76 [2] Guryev E S, Poluyan L V and Timashev S A 2011 Methodology of Constructing Dynamic Risk Maps for Large Metropolitan Areas Proc. of the First Int. 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Software Systems for Prediction and Immediate Assessment of Emergency Situations on Municipalities Territories

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Software Systems for Prediction and Immediate Assessment of Emergency Situations on Municipalities Territories

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