Petrov, A. I.

Petrova, D. A.

IOP Conference Series Earth and Environmental Science

Institutional repository of Ural Federal University named after the first President of Russia B.N.Yeltsin

1Content from this work may be used under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 licence. Any further distributionof this work must maintain attribution to the author(s) and the title of the work, journal citation and DOI.Published under licence by IOP Publishing Ltd1234567890EMMFT 2017 IOP PublishingIOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science 90 (2017) 012058    doi   :10.1088/1755-1315/90/1/012058Heterogeneity of road traffic accident rate in the Russian cities and the need of usage various methods of transport safety management A I  Petrov1 and D A Petrova2  1Tyumen Industrial University, Volodarskogo str., 38, Tyumen, 625000, Russia 2Ural Federal University named after the first President of Russia B.N. Yeltsin, Ekaterinburg, Russian Federation E-mail: ArtIgPetrov@yandex.ru Abstract. The article considers one of the topical problems of road safety management at the federal level - the problem of the heterogeneity of road traffic accident rate in Russian cities. The article analyzes actual statistical data on road traffic accident rate in the administrative centers of Russia. The histograms of the distribution of the values of two most important road accidents characteristics - Social Risk HR and Severity Rate of Road Accidents - formed in 2016 in administrative centers of Russia are presented. On the basis of the regression model of the statistical connection between Severity Rate of Road Accidents and Social Risk HR, a classification of the Russian cities based on the level of actual road traffic accident rate was developed. On the basis of this classification a differentiated system of priority methods for organizing the safe functioning of transport systems in the cities of Russia is proposed. 1. Introduction.  The Federal target program on road safety of Russia, as one of the main instruments for the implementation of the Transport Strategy of Russia, regulates the targets for perspective work in the field of traffic safety. However, only general targets are presented in this document, for example, it is indicated that the purpose of the federal target program on road safety in 2013-2020 is the reduction in the number of deaths as a result of  road traffic accidents by 2020 by 8 thousand people (28.82%) compared to 2012 [1-15]. There are about 1100 cities in Russia [10], in which, as of 01.01.2014, 74.2% of the country's population or 106.549 million people reside [13]. In 2016, 8752 people died in road accidents in Russian cities [13] (38% of the total number of deaths in road accidents). It is clear that the main share of accidents and the main traumatism and death of people are formed on roads outside of cities (62%), however in cities the processes of the road traffic organization are the most manageable [1-3, 9]. In this regard, it is most expedient to conduct analytical work to determine the specifics of the formation of  road accidents for the cities. One of the most important techniques in this work is the classification of researched objects (in this case, the cities of the Russian Federation in terms of the road accidents characteristics) [4-9]. 2. Basic data  It is practically impossible to collect detailed statistics of road accidents for all cities of the Russian Federation, however, for administrative centers this problem solves quite simply (Total in the Russian 21234567890EMMFT 2017 IOP PublishingIOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science 90 (2017) 012058    doi   :10.1088/1755-1315/90/1/012058Federation in 2016 - 85 administrative territorial units, 79 of them had the data necessary for calculating the characteristics of the accident). The source of this information is the website of the Traffic police of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Russia [13]. Table 1 shows the calculated values of the most important traffic accident rates indicators [11, 12] - Social Risk (HR) and Severity Rate of Road Traffic Accidents (SR of RTA) - for regional centers - cities with more than 1 million people population (2016). In other cities - the administrative centers of Russia - the value of the Social Risk HR varies in the range from 1.98 deaths in road traffic accidents per 100 thousand people (Murmansk) to 26.80 people killed in road traffic accident per 100 thousand people (Khanty-Mansiysk), the value of the Severity Rate of Road Traffic Accidents - in the range from 1.17 (Blagoveshchensk) to 10.78 (Grozny) [13].  Table 1. Indicators characterizing road traffic accident rate in Russian cities with  more than  1 million people population in 2016 [13]  Russian cities with  more than  1 million people population Indicators characterizing road traffic accident rate (RTA) in 2016  Population, pers. Road Traffic Accidents (RTA) Quantity, pers. HR, fatalities in RTA per 100 thousand pers. Severity Rate  of RTA Fatalities Injured Victims Moscow 12330120 9045 561 10326 10887 4.54 5.15 St. Petersburg 5225690 6104 239 7208 7447 4.57 3.21 Novosibirsk 1584138 1548 74 1792 1866 4.67 3.96 Ekaterinburg 1444439 805 85 1029 1114 5.88 7.63 N. Novgorod 1266871 1954 61 2263 2324 4.81 2.62 Kazan 1216965 2092 52 2372 2424 4.27 2.14 Chelyabinsk 1191994 1736 59 2173 2232 4.95 2.64 Omsk 1178079 2320 56 2924 2980 4.75 1.88 Samara 1170910 1130 52 1346 1398 4.44 3.72 Ufa 1121000 1858 48 2328 2376 4.28 2.02 Rostov-on-Don 1119875 1643 71 1976 2047 6.34 3.47 Krasnoyarsk 1066934 1766 53 2080 2133 4.97 2.48 Perm 1041976 1894 70 2264 2334 6.72 3.00 Voronezh 1032382 1145 83 1375 1458 8.04 5.69 Volgograd 1016137 1221 90 1545 1635 8.86 5.50  3. Methods and results of assessing the heterogeneity of accidents in the Russian cities  In order to assess the heterogeneity of road traffic accidents in Russian cities, a method of constructing histograms of the distribution of the values of road traffic accidents selected indicators was used.  Figure 1 and figure 2 show the histograms of the distribution of the values of the Social Risk HR and the Severity Rate of Road Accidents, determined from the statistics of accidents in administrative centers of Russia in 2016 (79 administrative centers in total).  31234567890EMMFT 2017 IOP PublishingIOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science 90 (2017) 012058    doi   :10.1088/1755-1315/90/1/012058 Figure 1. Distribution of Social Risk HR values in administrative centers of Russian Federation (2016)    Figure 2. Distribution of Severity Rate of Road Traffic Accidents values in administrative centers of Russian Federation (2016)  The investigated samples of the values of the Social Risk HR and the Severity Rate of Road Accidents are described by the Weibull distribution law, i.e. a variety of values of accident rates in cities is formed in a non-random way. 4. Results and Discussion Usually this fact is the basis for formulating a hypothesis about the presence of any obvious causes of an increased road traffic accident rate in some cities of the country. Factor analysis that can help to identify these causes is needed a large database characterizing the specificity of the city, the specifics of the road safety organization in it, the specificity of the transport behavior of the population. Usually 41234567890EMMFT 2017 IOP PublishingIOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science 90 (2017) 012058    doi   :10.1088/1755-1315/90/1/012058for organizers of road safety information is not widely available or completely absent. In such situation cities are usually classified according to some characteristics and cities with a marked deviation from the trend are detected. Figure 3 shows the regression model of statistical connection between the Social Risk HR and the Severity Rate of Road Traffic Accidents (Coefficient of severity RTA) defined for databases of  administrative centers (in total 79 cities). Model Coefficient of severity RTA = f(HR) served as a basis for the classification of cities in the Russian Federation in terms of road accident rate (figure 4, Table 2).  Table 2. Classification of Russian cities from the perspective of road accident rate  Characteristics Classes of Russian cities from the perspective of road safety I II III IV V Level of road safety Hight Medium Below the average Very low Unacceptably low Examples of cities Murmansk, Petrozavodsk, Vologda, Kostroma, Orel Kazan, Ufa, St.Petersburg Yaroslavl, Stavropol, Kaliningrad Kurgan, Yekaterinburg, Makhachkala Khanty-Mansiysk, Kyzyl, Nalchik, Grozny      Figure 3. Regression model Coefficient of severity RTA = f(HR) for database «Administrative centers of Russia» (2016)  51234567890EMMFT 2017 IOP PublishingIOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science 90 (2017) 012058    doi   :10.1088/1755-1315/90/1/012058 Figure 4. Classification of administrative centers of Russia in terms of road accident rate (2016)  This classification defines five classes of cities from the perspective of road accident rate. In cities, that belong to different classes from the perspective of traffic accidents, it is necessary to use various methods of organizing the safe functioning of transport systems (Table 3). It should be noted that the ideology of a differentiated approach in the selection of means and methods for managing road traffic safety, that is confessed by the author of this article, implies that on the territory of one large country, such as Russia, different approaches of stimulation of road traffic accidents reduction can and should be used.  Table 3. Priority ways of organization the safe functioning of transport systems in Russian cities  Classes of Russian cities in terms of safety Priority ways of organization the safe functioning of transport systems  in Russian cities I Maintenance of existing system of organization safe functioning of the transport system in the city; monitoring of the situation and point changes of the system. II Usage of standard measures to improve traffic safety (monitoring compliance with traffic rules). III Usage of increased, relative to the standard, security measures including speed control of road users. IV Usage of technologies for separation of transport and pedestrian flows in time and space. V Usage of emergency methods to control the transport behavior of road users (total control of compliance with the requirements of the Road Traffic Regulations, high fines, powerful restrictions on the rights of drivers, etc.).  5. Conclusion Below main conclusions are showed.  In administrative centers of Russia road accident rates widely vary. 61234567890EMMFT 2017 IOP PublishingIOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science 90 (2017) 012058    doi   :10.1088/1755-1315/90/1/012058 Statistical distributions of actual values of the Social Risk HR and the Severity Rate of Road Accidents in administrative centers of Russia are described by the Weibull distribution law, i.e. a variety of values of accident rates in cities is formed in a non-random way.  The regression model Coefficient of severity RTA = f(HR) can be served as a basis for the classification of cities in the Russian Federation in terms of road accident rate.  All Russian cities can be classified into five classes in terms of road accident rate.  For each class of cities, it is proposed to use a specific set of measures designed to improve road safety. In conclusion, it should be noted that for such a large country as Russia, in which the living conditions of the population are extremely different and the usual methods of organizing traffic safety are very heterogeneous, it is necessary to diversify the methods of managing the road safety system. Reference  [1] Adams J G D 1985 Risk and Freedom: the record of road safety regulation (Cardiff: Transportation Publishing Projects) p 202 [2] Cerwenka P et al 2012 Traffic Engineering and Control 53(4) 149    [3] Chiou Y and Fu C 2013 Accident Analysis & Prevention vol 50 73 [4] Cole T B 2004 The Journal of American Medical Association vol 291 2531 [5] Elvic R 2015 Accident Analysis & Prevention vol 82 36   [6] Haight F et al 1988 Reducing Traffic Injury - A Global Challenge (Melbourne Australia: Volvo Traffic Safety Award) p 156 [7] Jin T G, Saito M and Eggett D L 2008 Accident Analysis & Prevention vol 40 iss 6 2015  [8] Kerner B S 2013 Traffic Engineering and Control 54 (4) 47    [9] Petrov A I 2015 Features of formation of motor transportation accident rate in space and time (Tyumen: TSOGU) p 254 [10] Russian national population census 2010. Volume 1. The number and location of the population http://www.gks.ru/free_doc/new_site/perepis2010/croc/perepis_itogi1612.htm [11] Smeed R J 1949 The Journal of Royal Statistical Society. Series A (Statistics in Society) 1 1 [12] Smeed R J 1968 Traffic Engineering and Control 10 p 364 [13] Statistical information// Traffic police of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Russia – Traffic security status indicators – archive. http://www.gibdd.ru/stat/archive/ [14] The Federal target programme on road safety of Russia 2013-2020. http://www.fcp-pbdd.ru/  [15] Transport Strategy of Russia. http://www.mintrans.ru/activity/detail.php?SECTION_ID=2203   

Heterogeneity of road traffic accident rate in the Russian cities and the need of usage various methods of transport safety management

A I Petrov

D A Petrova

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Heterogeneity of road traffic accident rate in the Russian cities and the need of usage various methods of transport safety management

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