Effect of Latitude Bias in Entry Angle on Ground Casualty Risk from Naturally Decaying Space Objects

Abstract

An improvement to the long-term estimation of ground casualties from naturally decaying space objects is the refinement to the distribution of entry angle at the entry interface as a function of latitude. Previous analyses were based on an assumed "small angle," typically -0.1, and entry interface at the equator. This study expands on work by Bacon and Matney that indicated there is significant latitude bias in the location of reentries, compared to prior assumptions of equal temporal probability. A new model has been developed, which describes the distribution of entry angle as a function of orbital inclination and argument of latitude. This model has been used to generate inputs for ODPOs certified reentry survivability software, Object Reentry Survival Analysis Tool (ORSAT). These new results are compared with the prior standard model to assess the magnitude of the effects on reentry casualty risk