Juraj Dobrila University of Pula, Department of Economics and Tourism \u27Dr. Mijo Mirkovic\u27
Abstract
This paper examines the external debt sustainability in Turkey over the period 1970-2010 by using fractionally integrated approach. As a first step, possible structural breaks in the data are not taken into consideration. The findings from Robinson(1994a) test reveal that the process is nonstationary with long memory, therefore, there is no evidence of external debt sustainability in Turkey. In the second step, structural breaks identified by Bai and Perron (1998, 2003) multiple structural break test, are included in the Robinson test. The results in the context of structural breaks still show that the external debt in Turkey is not sustainable.Rad istražuje održivost vanjskog duga Turske u periodu od 1970. do 2010. koristeći frakcionarno integrirani pristup. Prije svega, mogući strukturni prekidi u podacima se ne uzimaju u obzir. Razultati Robinsonovog (1994a) testa otkrivaju da je proces nestacionaran s dugom memorijom i stoga nema dokaza održivosti vanjskog duga Turske. Nakon toga, strukturni prekidi uočeni Bai i Perron (1998, 2003) višestrukim testom strukturnog prekida, uključeni su u Robinsonov test. Rezultati u kontekstu strukturnih prekida još uvijek pokazuju da je vanjski dug Turske neodrživ
