Diffusion Models in Marketing: How to Incorporate the Effect of External Influence?

Abstract

U marketingu se difuzijski modeli tradicionalno koriste za modeliranje dinamike životnog ciklusa proizvoda, za predviđanje potražnje za novim proizvodom te kao pomoć pri donošenju odluka u vezi s uvođenjem proizvoda na tržište. Od kada su se počeli koristiti u marketingu, difuzijski su modeli postali vrlo kompleksni. Ta je složenost posljedica potrebe da se poveća prognostička sposobnost modela i da se oni što više prilagode potrebama menadžera. Vezano s time, jedan od izazova u difuzijskom modeliranju jest inkorporiranje marketinških varijabli. Ovaj članak nudi okvir unutar kojeg se mogu sistematizirati difuzijski modeli u marketingu, pri čemu se poseban naglasak stavlja na ulogu marketinških varijabli. U članku su uspoređeni različiti modeli, te su izložene njihove prednosti i nedostaci. Ujedno su ponuđene neke smjernice za buduća istraživanja.Diffusion models have been used traditionally in marketing for capturing the lifecycle dynamics of a new product, for forecasting the demand for a new product, and as a decision aid in making pre-launch, launch and post-launch strategic choices. Since their entrance into marketing, diffusion models have become increasingly complex. This complexity has been driven by the need to enhance the forecasting capability of these models and to improve their usefulness as a decision-making tool for managers. One of the challenges of diffusion modeling is to incorporate external influences in models, most notably the influence of marketing mix variables. This paper offers a framework for systematizing diffusion models in marketing, with a special emphasis on the role of marketing mix variables. Different models are compared and their advantages and disadvantages discussed. Suggestions for further research are also offered