„Tranzicija” je bila definirana kao razdoblje prelaska s centralne planske pri-vrede na slobodno tržišno privređivanje. Planska je privreda bila odbačena kao ideološka, suprotna „slobodnom svijetu” i tržištu. U Republici Hrvatskoj raz-doblje „tranzicije” počelo je stvarno 1. siječnja 1994. godine, kada su na snagu stupili propisi, kojima su bili određeni novi uvjeti privređivanja. Pošto je Hrvatski stočarski centar objavio u proljeće godine 2004. Godišnje izvješće 2003. – Svinjogojstvo pa Državni statistički zavod Republike Hrvatske Statistički ljetopis 2004., postalo je mogućim sagledati svinjogojstvo u cjelini, a ne samo u svinjogojskim poduzećima, tijekom čitavoga prvoga desetljeća „tranzicije” u Republici Hrvatskoj. Proučavanju je bio cilj iz neospornih činjenica ustanoviti kretanja koja upućuju na moguće posljedice. Materijal su u istraživanju činili podaci objavljeni u izvještajima Hrvatskoga stočarskoga selekcijskoga centra i Hrvatskoga stočarskoga centra, oni koje je objavio Državni statistički zavod RH te objavljeni u knjizi „Opskrba ljudi mesom za zdravlje” (Sviben, 2001). Na osnovi ishoda obrade podataka, obavljene i statističkim postupcima, navoda u znanstvenom i stručnom štivu te razmatranja, bilo je moguće zaključiti, da se u Republici Hrvatskoj tijekom prvoga desetljeća „tranzicije” obujam proizvodnje svinja za klanje održavao više-manje jednakim na razini približno 30% manjoj od postignute u godini 1990. te u količini koja je mogla zadovoljiti tek približno četvrtinu potreba stanovništva za svinjetinom radi dobra zdravlja. Intenzivirala se proizvodnja svinja za vlastitu potrošnju. Držaoci svinja sve su manje svinjama privređivali. Bivao je sve veći broj svinja zaklanih po aktivnom poljoprivredniku godišnje kod kuće, a sve manji broj svinja zaklanih po aktivnom poljoprivredniku godišnje u klaonicama. Smanjivao se broj svinja zaklanih u klaonicama po nepoljoprivrednom stanovniku godišnje te se može očekivati, da će se do godine 2008. smanjivati prema jednadžbi izračunatoj s podacima za godine 1998-2003. po stopi većoj od one prema jednadžbi izračunatoj s podacima za godine 1994-2003. Takva su kretanja opažena i moguće posljedice sagledane i s trendovima za kretanje prosječnoga broja krmača godišnje te broja odojaka odbijenih u godini u velikim farmama. Broj svinja zaklanih u klaonicama po nepoljoprivrednom stanovniku godišnje bio je jako, pozitivno i značajno povezan s brojem živih sredstava za rad i s obujmom proizvodnje predmeta rada u veleobrtnim svinjogojskim poduzećima. Tijekom „tranzicije” došlo je do toga, da jest i da će u dogledno vrijeme opskrba svinjetinom nepoljoprivrednoga stanovništva u Hrvatskoj biti sve manja od svinja proizvedenih u svinjogojstvu na području Hrvatske.Discussions about the changes in Eastern Europe and the consequences of these in livestock production started in 1990. In April 1991 a Round Table on „The livestock production sector in Eastern Europe” was organised by EAAP, FAO and the Research Centre for Animal Breeding and Nutrition (Herceghalom, Hungary) in cooperation with the World Bank, EEC, OIE and WAAP in Budapest. In May 1992 FAO gathered the single expert from Albania, Bulgaria, Byelorussia, Croatia, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Ukraine and Yugoslavia at the National Research Institute of Animal Production in Balice (near Krakow, Poland) in order to report on the pig production in their countries, to identify constraints and to find potential solutions in Eastern Europe during the period of transition from central planning towards a market economy. Such a period of time began in Republic of Croatia on January 1st 1994, when the economy started to be regulated by new laws, mostly according to keynesian economics.The movements of the pig production during the first decade of the transition in Republic of Croatia became visible when concerning data had been published by Croatian Livestock Production Centre in the springtime and by Central Bureau of Statistics of Republic of Croatia at the end of 2004. The aim of this research work has been to find possible consequences of the movements of the pig production in close future. In 1990 it was estimated that the number of pigs produced in Croatia to be slaughtered should be doubled. The World Food Summit in 1996 was informed that 6.156.000-7.614.000 pigs have to be produced in order the health status of 4.800.000 inhabitants in Republic of Croatia to be good. The number of pigs slaughtered in Republic of Croatia during 1994 was 1.573.000 or 25,46% less than in 1990 (2.110.000). During following nine years the number of pigs slaughtered in Republic of Croatia varied from 1.404.000 in 1996. to 1.567.000 in 1999. satisfying the number of pigs slaughtered in order the health status of inhabitants to be good as much as 23,53% in 1995 to 26,99% in 2002. During the first decade of transition in Republic of Croatia the production of pigs to be slaughtered at home for the producers, their families, relatives and friends was more intensive than the production of pigs for the market to be slaughtered at the slaughterhouses. The pig holders lessened the making money with pigs. It has been established that the number of pigs slaughtered per no-agricultural inhabitant a year at the slaughterhouse until 2008 will be lessened more quickly according to the equation derived from the data for 1998-2003 than to the equation derived from the data for 1994-2003. Similar movements and possible consequences were found with the data for average number of sows at the beginning of the year as well as with the data for the number of pigs weaned during the year in large pig units. The number of pigs slaughtered at the slaughterhouses per no-agricultural inhabitant was strongly, positevely and significicantly correlated to the number of alive means for the work and to the volume of production of objectives of the work in industrially organised pig enterprises. During the period of transition in Republic of Croatia developed the situation so that the provision of pork for no-agricultural inhabitants from year to year will be less from the pigs produced in Republic of Croatia
