Causality between Economic Growth and Consumption of Natural Gas in I. R. Iran

Abstract

This study investigates interactions between economic growth and natural gas consumption, using times series data. The paper uses vector error correction technique and Johansen Co-integration test for the period 1353-1386. Co-integration test results indicate that there are two co-integrating vectors containing GDP and natural gas consumption. In order to identify the co-integrating vectors, restrictions based on fundamentals of economic theory are imposed. Each vector can be interpreted as follows: in cointegrating equation1, gas consumption, capital, research & development and labor force variables have positive and significant effects on GDP (endogenous growth function) in the long run, based on theoretical foundations of endogenous growth function is quite plausible. In cointegrating equation 2, GDP has positive and significant effect on gas consumption in the long run. Also, there are short-term dynamics in ECM equations in which speed of adjustment coefficients are offered. The results indicate that there is bidirectional causality between gas consumption and GDP in Iranian economy. So myiopic policies on one side without considering the other side is not expected to be effective. This means that policies designed for restraining gas consumption policy, ceteris paribus, may lead to decline in GDP