Coastal areas are naturally dynamic with the changes occurring over periods of time. To monitor shoreline changes this study has been used digital shoreline analysis system (DSAS), which is an extension for Arc GIS 10.3 software developed by USUG. Several statistical methods are used to calculate the shoreline change rate with the most commonly used being end point rate (EPR) calculations. ERP calculations are simply the rates determined based on the changes in position between the oldest and the most recent shoreline a given dataset. A total of transects built in the Al Kabir-Al Shamali river estuary have values less than zero (i.e. the value of (EPR= -2.8) shows the highest retreating and outside of the error margin (10m), while the transect lines which have positive values higher than zero (i.e. advance shows of the highest degree in the Alfaid land region). The value of EPR (+1.81) shows the advanced shoreline and the transects are shown in gradients close to the red to indicate sedimentation

Juliet Salloum

Mirna Sebat

Business & IT

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01/2018  Business & IT 
59 
ESTIMATE THE RATE OF SHORELINE CHANGE USING THE 
STATISTICAL ANALYSIS TECHNIQUE (EPR) 
Mirna Sebat*1, Dr. Juliet Salloum1 
1 Department of Geography, Faculty of Geography-Faculty of Arts and Humanities, Tishreen 
University-Lattakia, Syria, mirnasebat87@gmail.com 
 
Abstract 
Coastal areas are naturally dynamic with the changes occurring over periods of time. To monitor 
shoreline changes this study has been used digital shoreline analysis system (DSAS), which is an 
extension for Arc GIS 10.3 software developed by USUG. Several statistical methods are used to 
calculate the shoreline change rate with the most commonly used being end point rate (EPR) 
calculations. ERP calculations are simply the rates determined based on the changes in position 
between the oldest and the most recent shoreline a given dataset. A total of transects built in the Al 
Kabir-Al Shamali river estuary have values less than zero (i.e. the value of (EPR= -2.8) shows the highest 
retreating and outside of the error margin (± 10m), while the transect lines which have positive values 
higher than zero (i.e. advance shows of the highest degree in the Alfaid land region). The value of EPR 
(+1.81) shows the advanced shoreline and the transects are shown in gradients close to the red to 
indicate sedimentation. 
Keywords 
Shoreline, retreat, advance, sedimentation, erosion, GIS, DSAS, EPR 
JEL Classification 
C10, O44 
 
DOI: https://doi.org/10.14311/bit.2018.01.07 
 
 
 
 
 
Introduction 
Shoreline occurring between land and sea, is highly dynamic, and changes temporally and spatially in 
response to variations in influencing factors such as wind, wave tide, storm surge, sea level rise and 
land subsidence (Orford et al. 2002; Forbes et al. 2004; Cooper et al.2004) 
The Syrian shoreline is critical important being a waterfront for the Syrian coast. The changes in the 
shoreline constitute a real and accelerated threats to the vital system in the Syrian coast (Görmüş et 
al. 2014).  
Within 50 years, this shoreline witnessed an important changes. Therefore it is very important to 
record and monitor the shoreline changes continuously with the most advanced technologies to 
Editorial information:  journal Business & IT, ISSN 2570-7434, CreativeCommons license 
published by CTU in Prague, 2018, http://bit.fsv.cvut.cz/ 
Business & IT  01/2018 
 
60 
develop a permanent perception and lasting consistent with future plans and projects for the 
development of the Syrian coast region and it's management. 
Characterization of the study area 
The Syrian coast is located between two latitudes of 34º.31 and ′35º.37′ north of the Equator circle 
and two longitudes of 36º.13´ and 35º.43´east Greenwich until the height(contour) line {250m} east in 
which the tyranny and recession of maritime had occurred in the Mediterranean. The existing marine 
sediments between the sea level and sea-level 250 m east of Jableh. Where the maximum nautical 
tyranny has occurred. The. Calabrian 150-250m (Al barouedi 1984).  
 The Syrian coastal region. Consisting of the coastal governorates Latakia and Tartous extend 183 long 
from RAS Al -bassit "Al bodursuy" to the end of Tartuts district "Al Araida" on the Lebanese border in 
the south. Divided into {93km} coast of latakia district and {90 km} of Tartous district.  
Note that: the length (183 km) does not include the meanders in the shoreline and only represent an 
extension of basic lines which are a set of regular imaginary lines or straight lines related to the 
maximum points located on the minimum of the island toward the sea that separates the internal 
waters of the territorial sea. Figure 1 clarify the geographical reality of the study area. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure 1: The preparation of the student on the basis of satellite image. The ability of discrimination 
(1m). 
Search tools and methods 
Data of Remote sensing 
 The study mainly, depended on high -resolution satellite image (1m) Of (Ikonos) type. Taken in 2010 
referent and geographically projection. Then the shoreline was drawn accurately to compare and match 
it with the shoreline drawn on the Aerial photo (white- black) taken in 1956. Note that all Aerial photos 
geo-referenced depending on the modern referent space photo in order to compare the land marks in 
the two photos, such as an intersection or corner of the building through the geographic information 
system(Arc-GIS.103). The errors associated with accuracy of vertical photography for Aerial photos, the 
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reflection of the image, the sources of other errors such as heat, height and pressure exerted on the 
camera and the overlap among all these errors can lead to distortions in the Aerial photo (Chaaban 
2011). 
So we concluded the margin of errors in this study about (1m) depending on the accuracy of the 
aerial photo. These errors were taken into account in the graph and the interpretation of the results.  
Data processing  
 To determine the exact line of the beach and to monitor his changes is essential for planning and 
management of the coastal zone. In this study we compare between the two shorelines during (1958-
2010) as follow: after the referent of the aerial photo depending on common points with the geo-
referenced satellite image. Taking into the account the errors in referent within the allowed values. The 
written chips for the shorelines were established in the program (Arc-catalog) and then graphic in Arc-
map.  
These changes showed varying degree on the Ariel and satellite images. To identify the retreat areas 
in the shoreline and the areas where the land overcome the sea. Through the changes of erosion or 
sedimentation or actual human activity. On the basis of difference of and in the nature of the rocks. 
We identified five areas: Al Issawiyah area, Al faid land area, Al-kabir al-shamali river, Ibn Hani area, 
Albasia area. 
The indicators used in the research 
-EPR: (the rate of the end point) calculated by dividing the distance between the movement of the 
shoreline and time elapsed between the oldest and the latest measurements (the oldest and the 
newest shoreline) (Armaroli et al. 2014).  
The main advantage for (EPR) is easily calculated and require the minimum amount of the coastal 
data (two shorelines). The main disadvantage is that in cases there is more than two shorelines. The 
information related to the conduct of the shoreline. Which provided by the additional beaches and the 
Changes in the size of the direction of the beach or the cyclical fluctuations of behavior be neglected. 
But in this study the data of two shoreline were used to overcome the technical defects.  
DSAS: it stands for (digital shoreline analysis system) 
It is intended for the analysis of digital for shoreline and it is an extension support the natural 
function of the program (ESRI ArcGIS). Users can calculated the statistics of the rate of changes of 
shoreline from different Series of time of shoreline locations. The extension was designed to assist the 
analysis of historical changes to the beach. The DSAS system work through the establishment of 
perpendicular segments (Chand and Acharya 2010). And then calculate the rate of changes and 
statistics associated with the chart of data. DSAS calculate a lot of statistical indicators such as, (LRR -
JKR-EPR) (NASA، U.S. Geological Survey). 
Results and Discussion 
Many scientists studied the coastal erosion and they suggested many ways to measure the coastal 
retreat. The most common way is the baseline method and it was chosen in this research. This method 
is defined as the cross section method and used by Dolan, Hayden and Heywood, 1978 (Dolan et al. 
1978).where the baseline was chosen parallel to the shoreline and adopted for all maps. and from near 
area of the shorelines during (1958-2010) to account the degree of changes by the meditation and 
perpendicular diversion with the line segments that have been created to conclude the rates of change  
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62 
The establishment of trans sections and Standards of changes was automatically using special 
programs such as, DSAS which attached to program ArcGIS.  
This extension contains elements identified the baseline and produced perpendicular videos to give 
clear clarification of shoreline and rate for its changes along the segments.in the analysis the rate of 
changes of the shoreline during the study period was calculated by the statistical technique (the end 
point rate). (EPR) (Dolan et al. 1991). Specific classification was adopted to clarify the values of (EPR) 
in selected areas of the study. The value zero indicates the full match of the shorelines. There is no 
erosion.no sedimentation. 
 The negative values have been given green color tones to indicate the erosion and a clear retreat of 
shoreline. While the positive values indicates the sedimentation in area and overcome the land over 
the sea to show the segments in red and his tones. It is to be noted that the cuts take to show the 
classification clearer and with more color tones to clarify accurately the used classification. 
 
- Alissawiyh area: The baseline was established in parallel with the general directions of the shoreline. 
All transects were built on regular basis and with a distance (5m) along the beach and in length (100 
m). At the end all transects (1046 transects) built and referenced in known order from east to west to 
give (EPR) the zero value along the line (Chand and Acharya 2010). Here the shoreline did not show any 
progress or retreat.but full match of the shorelines to be assured by the zero value of EPR. Fig2 (a).  
 
- Alfaid land area: The equipment DSAS has produced (287) transects directed vertically in the 
shoreline with Distance (5 m) and with length of transects (200) was chosen to fit with the shoreline. 
Note that the total transects showed the overcome of land over the sea and it showed the transects 
color tones, close to the red color. EPR give positive values. The sedimentation is domination and the 
maximum value is (EPR=+1.81) in the northern section of the area and this is what have been previously 
interpreted and the minimum (EPR=0.07) indicates of the erosion about (5 m) Fig2 (b). 
 
- Ibn hani area: The maximum value (EPR=0) and the minimum value is (EPR= -1) there is no value more 
than zero so. There is no sedimentation in this area here the baseline had determined and (381) 
transects were built in known order from east to west with distance of (1 m) and a length (75m) for 
transects to show the transects in green which indicates the domination of erosion and the map Fig2 
(c). 
 
- Al Kabir-Al Shamali river: After the comparison between the two shoreline clarify the retreat and the 
domination of the erosion over the sedimentation and transects showed in (609) in (5m) along the 
beach with length (200m) and in the known order from east to west to give the EPR negative values 
along the line. The maximum value between the chosen areas for the study (EPR=-2.8) faces the 
maximum recorded value (90m) and the highest value (EPR =-0.8). All the transects have negative 
values and the EPR zero value so there is no full match for the shoreline and there is no sediments but 
the domination of erosion in the area. The transects showed in dark green indicates the intensity of 
the erosion in the area the Fig 2(d).  
 
- Al basia area: The equipment DSAS produced about (513) transects vertical on the shoreline in 
distance (5m) and length of transects (200m) was chosen to match the shoreline. To notice that the 
total transects appeared in green to show clear retreat of the shoreline as the segment show in red 
tones to give the EPR positive value too and the overcome of the land over the sea. The maximum 
value EPR =1.61+) indicates on sediments in the small Al bas gulf. Between the crossed tower in the 
01/2018  Business & IT 
63 
south where the ship home. And the Roman tower installed in hole was constructed in natural rocks 
and this rocks go deep in the sea to form a good barrier for the ships and exchange the different 
maritime business in this gulf. And we can consider it as a natural shelter. But it was prepared for 
temporary business and to provide the main needs. This percent here is an artificial human. The 
minimum value (EPR=-1.4) refer to intense erosion faces the value (60 m). The Fig 2 (e). After 
comparison the statistical result for the equipment DSAS with the degrees of erosion and 
sedimentation that has been recorded when we compare the two shoreline between (1958-2010) we 
have the highest statistical recorded value for erosion showed in the AlKabir Al shamali river area and 
that matches with the highest recorded erosion values (90m) in the same area. But the retreat and 
erosion has increased in the area especially after the construction of 16 tishreen dam in 1985. The 
amount of the sediments which was received by the sea has decreased because of the construction of 
the 16 tishreen dam to occuar the domination of the erosion over the sedimentation. With the concern 
the margin of errors in every chosen area of the study. The highest degree of sedimentation between 
the chosen areas of the study recorded in Al faid land (15m) to take EPR the highest value (+1.81). 
 
 (a)       (b)      (c) 
 
  (d)     (e) 
Figure 2: (a) The value of EPR in Al Issawiyah area Depending on the DSAS tool, (b) the value of EPR in 
Al faid land area Depending on the DSAS tool, (c) The value of EPR in Ibn Hani area Depending on the 
DSAS tool, (d) the value of EPR, In Al-kabir al-shamali river Depending on the tool DSAS, (e) the value 
of EPR in the Albasia area depending on the DSAS tool. 
Business & IT  01/2018 
 
64 
Conclusion 
 The integration of modern technology today and remote sensing with geographic information 
system (GIS) demonstrated a great ability to give useful approach to study the shoreline changes. 
Thus, the study of the coasts and changes is critical important to conceive of what is happening and 
what can be done to protect in the light of current and emerging data expected.  
Suggestions 
1. To monitor of the part exposed to and try to address the continuing and through the establishment 
of a pier and the reinforcing concerts mortgages fixed stone to prevent leakage of the water to 
access to rock.  
2. Proper and good administration of coastal regions as an example if it was to prevent the 
construction of the facilities and buildings near the beach. We can avoid many future problems 
concerning erosion result from storm until structural corrosion even if it temporary. 
3. The dimensions of the facilities of roads. Bridges on the impact of the maritime erosion and risks 
through building marine barriers to protect properly from storm waves and coastal changes.  
4. To work in installed the sand in the region through the transplant environment. And that the 
protection of the urban center of the going March of the sand where that plant is working to 
protect the shoreline of retreat before the operation of maritime insisted. 
5. Interference in the natural sediments transfer process using the means of protection as the sand 
barriers and deep wall to strengthen the beach.  
6. Artificial nutrition is one of the forms of protection of the beaches. Any protection that is artificially 
brought the sand from an external sources which it put in the coastal environment.  
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Estimate the rate of shoreline change using the statistical analysis technique (EPR)

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Estimate the rate of shoreline change using the statistical analysis technique (EPR)

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