We introduce an agent-based model describing a
susceptible-infectious-susceptible (SIS) system of humans and mosquitoes to
predict malaria epidemiological scenarios in realistic biological conditions.
Emphasis is given to the transition from endemic behavior to eradication of
malaria transmission induced by combined drug therapies acting on both the
gametocytemia reduction and on the selective mosquito mortality during parasite
development in the mosquito. Our mathematical framework enables to uncover the
critical values of the parameters characterizing the effect of each drug
therapy. Moreover, our results provide quantitative evidence of what is
empirically known: interventions combining gametocytemia reduction through the
use of gametocidal drugs, with the selective action of ivermectin during
parasite development in the mosquito, may actively promote disease eradication
in the long run. In the agent model, the main properties of human-mosquito
interactions are implemented as parameters and the model is validated by
comparing simulations with real data of malaria incidence collected in the
endemic malaria region of Chimoio in Mozambique. Finally, we discuss our
findings in light of current drug administration strategies for malaria
prevention, that may interfere with human-to-mosquito transmission process.Comment: 12 pages, 6 figure
