In this article dynamic stability of interaction of small business, large business and society in oil industry is investigated. This system is system with an environmental risk. For modeling of the relations in a business environment «small business» – «large business» – «society» in oil branch the author is used mathematical apparatus of alarm counts. Four are considered, substantially diff erent from each other, the scenario. Characteristics of the second (best) scenario are in detail analyzed. Conclusions for production stabilization in the long term need to be given the state support to small business in oil branch. The analysis of nature of dynamic processes (in particular, stability), arising in social and economic systems under the infl uence of indignations of various nature, is an important link of formal procedures of the solution of a wide class of problems of management in systems of such class. Characteristic problems of this type are: elaboration of strategy of regional ecological policy, choice and research of efficiency of economic and legal mechanisms of regulation of technogenic and natural risk, forecasting of tendencies in political processes and some other. The value of this work is use for the first time the device of alarm counts for justification of need to develop small business in oil industry, in model is shown that despite growth of level of pollution quality of life of the population finds growth due to growth of number of workplaces
