Using available ecological and environmental time series and current understanding of multiple drivers to examine temporal variability in the Southern Benguela over the past four decades

Abstract

5th Advances in Marine Ecosystem Modelling Research Symposium (AMEMR 2017), 3-6 July 2017, PlymouthPrevious trophic models of the Southern Benguela ecosystem are updated, refined and refitted, using newly available biological, fisheries and environmental data series. In the last decade, there have been notable advancements in our understanding of dynamics and changes in the Southern Benguela ecosystem and environment. These findings and data sets spanning multiple trophic levels are incorporated into an Ecopath with Ecosim food web model of the system, fit to catch and species abundance data from 1978-2015. Using Ecosim temporal dynamic modelling, we attempt to shed further light on the processes by which multiple drivers act to produce the ecosystem trends and variability we observe. This understanding is important in reconciling the knowledge needed to manage fisheries and to protect marine biodiversity by means of ecosystem-based management in South Africa, and to advance management under future scenarios of global change in the region. The updated model is currently being usedto examine in detail, at the ecosystem level, some of the most pressing issues in South African fisheries managementPeer Reviewe