Development and prototype application of an oil spill risk analysis in a coastal zone

Abstract

This paper introduces the development of a methodology for performance of oil spill risk analysis in coastal zones through a prototype application. The main objective of the research effort is to develop the basis for a tool that can assess risks due to the occurrence of an oil spill event aiming at assisting to the risk response process. The methodology concerns the processes of probability and consequence assessment. The two processes are accomplished qualitatively with a risk prioritization based on Analytic Hierarchy Process. Being a decision-making technique, Analytic Hierarchy Process can only be used after some appropriate modifications, which transform it into a tool for prioritizing risks with respect to their probability and consequence in different oil spill scenarios. This is an approach that attempts to rationalise the risk analysis stages and to indicate the uncertainties imposed to the problem, hence creating a basis for optimization of the risk analysis results.Hydraulic EngineeringCivil Engineering and Geoscience