Boklund, Anette

Hisham Beshara Halasa, Tariq

Online Research Database In Technology

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Downloaded from orbit.dtu.dk on: Dec 20, 2017Optimizing the control of foot-and-mouth disease in Denmark by simulationFoot-and-mouth disease simulation modelingHisham Beshara Halasa, Tariq; Boklund, AnettePublication date:2012Document VersionPublisher's PDF, also known as Version of recordLink back to DTU OrbitCitation (APA):Hisham Beshara Halasa, T., & Boklund, A. (2012). Optimizing the control of foot-and-mouth disease in Denmarkby simulation: Foot-and-mouth disease simulation modeling [Sound/Visual production (digital)]. Closing seminarfor Optimizing the control of foot-and-mouth disease in Denmark by simulation, Copenhagen, Denmark,09/05/2012Optimizing the control of foot-and-mouth disease in Denmark by simulation Foot-and-mouth disease simulation modeling  Tariq Halasa Anette Boklund  9/05/2012 Closing seminar 2 Optimizing the control of foot-and-mouth disease in Denmark by simulation Outlines I:  • Theoretical introduction to Monte Carlo simulation modeling:  – What is Monte Carlo simulation modeling?  – Why Monte Carlo simulation modeling is used?  – When is it appropriate to build a simulation model of a system?  – What do we need to build a model?     9/05/2012 Closing seminar 3 Optimizing the control of foot-and-mouth disease in Denmark by simulation Outlines II:  • Foot and mouth disease (FMD) simulation modeling as illustration with emphasis on different ways of modeling:  – Animal model.  – Disease evolution within a herd.  – Disease evolution within a country.  • Minimum required data to build a useful FMD model.   9/05/2012 Closing seminar 4 Optimizing the control of foot-and-mouth disease in Denmark by simulation          Essentially, all models are wrong,                                 BUT                        some are useful !! Prof. George Box 9/05/2012 Closing seminar 5 Optimizing the control of foot-and-mouth disease in Denmark by simulation Simulation modeling  • A representation of real life systems to gain insight into their functions and to investigate the effects of alternative conditions or actions on the modeled system.  • It is frequently referred to as Monte Carlo simulation. 9/05/2012 Closing seminar 6 Optimizing the control of foot-and-mouth disease in Denmark by simulation A simplification of a system (e.g. FMD) Reality 9/05/2012 Closing seminar 7 Optimizing the control of foot-and-mouth disease in Denmark by simulation A simplification of a system (e.g. FMD) Reality Knowledge 9/05/2012 Closing seminar 8 Optimizing the control of foot-and-mouth disease in Denmark by simulation A simplification of a system (e.g. FMD) Reality Knowledge Unknown Too complex to model What we model is a simplification of reality 9/05/2012 Closing seminar 9 Optimizing the control of foot-and-mouth disease in Denmark by simulation Why simulation modeling is used?  • It is best to use experiments and trials to investigate the effect of alternative conditions or actions on a specific system.   • Experiments and trials are very expensive.  • Not an option to conduct a field trial (FMD).  9/05/2012 Closing seminar 10 Optimizing the control of foot-and-mouth disease in Denmark by simulation Simulation modeling?  • Cheaper choice. • As soon as the model is validated, further changes to examine alternative choices and actions can be incorporated quite fast and easy. • Therefore, models can be a good alternative to experiments, given the limitations.   9/05/2012 Closing seminar 11 Optimizing the control of foot-and-mouth disease in Denmark by simulation When is it appropriate to make a model?  • Only when sufficient basic information regarding the modeled system is available.  9/05/2012 Closing seminar 12 Optimizing the control of foot-and-mouth disease in Denmark by simulation The models  – DTU-DADS: updated model of the Davis Animal Disease Spread (version 0.05).  – InterSpread Plus (version 2.001.11).  – North American Animal Disease Spread Model (version 3.0.81).  9/05/2012 Closing seminar 13 Optimizing the control of foot-and-mouth disease in Denmark by simulation Animal model of FMD Healthy susceptible FMD Infected Removed  9/05/2012 Closing seminar 14 Optimizing the control of foot-and-mouth disease in Denmark by simulation Animal model of FMD   The progress of the animal in the different stages is controlled by probabilities of infection and detection.   Healthy susceptible FMD Infected Removed  9/05/2012 Closing seminar 15 Optimizing the control of foot-and-mouth disease in Denmark by simulation Deterministic vs. stochastic  • Deterministic: use one input value to represent the occurrence of an event; for instance the use of average value.  • Stochastic: use randomness to model chance or events; for instance the use of probability distribution.  9/05/2012 Closing seminar 16 Optimizing the control of foot-and-mouth disease in Denmark by simulation A herd model 9/05/2012 Closing seminar 17 Optimizing the control of foot-and-mouth disease in Denmark by simulation A herd model 9/05/2012 Closing seminar 18 Optimizing the control of foot-and-mouth disease in Denmark by simulation A herd model 9/05/2012 Closing seminar 19 Optimizing the control of foot-and-mouth disease in Denmark by simulation A herd model 9/05/2012 Closing seminar 20 Optimizing the control of foot-and-mouth disease in Denmark by simulation A herd model 9/05/2012 Closing seminar 21 Optimizing the control of foot-and-mouth disease in Denmark by simulation Deterministic vs. stochastic  • Deterministic: use one input value to represent the occurrence of an event; for instance the use of average value.  • Stochastic: use randomness to model chance or events; for instance the use of probability distribution.  9/05/2012 Closing seminar 22 Optimizing the control of foot-and-mouth disease in Denmark by simulation A herd model DTU-DADS ISP and NAADSM 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 Probability Days after the herd is infected 9/05/2012 Closing seminar 23 Optimizing the control of foot-and-mouth disease in Denmark by simulation A country model Infected herd Susceptible Susceptible Susceptible Susceptible 9/05/2012 Closing seminar 24 Optimizing the control of foot-and-mouth disease in Denmark by simulation Infected herd Susceptible Susceptible Susceptible Susceptible A country model 9/05/2012 Closing seminar 25 Optimizing the control of foot-and-mouth disease in Denmark by simulation Infected herd Susceptible Susceptible Susceptible Susceptible A country model 9/05/2012 Closing seminar 26 Optimizing the control of foot-and-mouth disease in Denmark by simulation A country model   – How to model contacts?  • Separate movements and contacts patterns (DTU-DADS and ISP).  • Combining contacts (NAADSM).  9/05/2012 Closing seminar 27 Optimizing the control of foot-and-mouth disease in Denmark by simulation A country model   – Probability of infection is determined by:  • Distance-probability function (herd locations and movement data).  • Probability of contact between the 2 herd types (movement and contact data).  • Probability the contact is infectious (the literature).  9/05/2012 Closing seminar 28 Optimizing the control of foot-and-mouth disease in Denmark by simulation Detected herd Susceptible Susceptible Susceptible Susceptible A country model 9/05/2012 Closing seminar 29 Optimizing the control of foot-and-mouth disease in Denmark by simulation Control – pre-emptive depopulation Detected herd Susceptible Susceptible Susceptible Susceptible 9/05/2012 Closing seminar 30 Optimizing the control of foot-and-mouth disease in Denmark by simulation Control – emergency vaccination Detected herd Susceptible Susceptible Vaccinated Vaccinated 9/05/2012 Closing seminar 31 Optimizing the control of foot-and-mouth disease in Denmark by simulation Control  – Start of the control measures:  • Days following disease detection.  • Following detection of a number of infected herds.  9/05/2012 Closing seminar 32 Optimizing the control of foot-and-mouth disease in Denmark by simulation Summary  • A useful FMD simulation model on country level can be built when this information is available:  – Location of herds, herd sizes and types.  – Movement patterns from and to herds.  – Policies and capacities for FMD control.  – Other inputs from the literature.   9/05/2012 Closing seminar 33 Optimizing the control of foot-and-mouth disease in Denmark by simulation Summary  • A useful FMD simulation model should:  – Represent the herd structure.  – Represent the dynamics of movements and contacts within the country.  – Represent the biology of the disease.  – Represent the regulations, roles and policies.   9/05/2012 Closing seminar 34 Optimizing the control of foot-and-mouth disease in Denmark by simulation  Model outcomes should be discussed thoroughly and used to assist in decision making 

Optimizing the control of foot-and-mouth disease in Denmark by simulation:Foot-and-mouth disease simulation modeling

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Optimizing the control of foot-and-mouth disease in Denmark by simulation:Foot-and-mouth disease simulation modeling

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