Barfod, Michael Bruhn

Salling, Kim Bang

Online Research Database In Technology

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Downloaded from orbit.dtu.dk on: Dec 20, 2017The UNITE Modelling System: SIMSIGHT - Risk Simulation and Scenario ForesightSalling, Kim Bang; Barfod, Michael BruhnPublication date:2012Link back to DTU OrbitCitation (APA):Salling, K. B., & Barfod, M. B. (2012). The UNITE Modelling System: SIMSIGHT - Risk Simulation and ScenarioForesight. Abstract from Palisade International User Conference, London, United Kingdom.The UNITE Modelling System: SIMSIGHT ‐ Risk Simulation and Scenario Foresight  Assistant Professor, Ph.D. Kim Bang Salling Technical University of Denmark Department of Transport (DTU Transport) Email: kbs@transport.dtu.dk  Research Assistant, Ph.D. Michael Bruhn Barfod DTU Transport Email: mbb@transport.dtu.dk   KEYWORDS:  Transport  appraisal, Risk Analysis, Monte  Carlo  Simulation, Reference  Class  Forecasting, Decision Conferencing, Overconfidence  ABSTRACT:  This  presentation  introduces  the  brand  new  approach  of  integrating  risk  simulation  and scenario  foresight  within  transport  project  appraisal  (SIMSIGHT).  The  approach  is  based  upon quantitative risk analysis and Monte Carlo simulation and conventional cost‐benefit analysis converting deterministic benefit‐cost ratios (BCRs) into stochastic interval results. Recent research has proven that particularly input based impacts such as construction cost and travel time savings often are respectively underestimated and overestimated creating so‐called Optimism Bias. Decision‐makers and stakeholders are,  hereby,  often  basing  their  decisions  on  inadequate  material.  The  UNITE  Modelling  System introduces an  integrated approach by allowing decision‐makers and stakeholders  to participate  in  the project appraisal scheme at an early stage by attending a preliminary decision conference (DC) in order to  provide  input  variables  to  the  decision  support model.  The  participants  (i.e.  stakeholders,  project owners, decision‐makers, etc.) will during a 1 or 2 day seminar be brought together with the purpose of discussing  and  agreeing  upon  respectively  an  absolute  MIN  and  MAX  value  with  respect  to  the construction  cost  estimates  and  travel  time  savings.  Correspondingly,  a  set  of  extreme  values  are collected  in  terms of  reference  classes  (RC) depicting Optimism Bias within  transport projects where investment costs have a tendency to be underestimated and demand forecasts, that lays the foundation for travel time savings, to be overestimated. Combining respectively the DC and RC input in a common framework  model  provides  information  with  respect  to  the  resulting  SIMSIGHT  transport  appraisal system. Herein, the extreme MIN and MAX values from the RC database are combined with the absolute MIN and MAX values from the DC in order to derive a general probability distribution function denoted the  SIMSIGHT distribution  for  transport appraisal. The  SIMSIGHT approach will be  tested  and  further explored upon a case example depicting a new fixed  link between Elsinore (Denmark) and Helsingborg (Sweden). Finally, a conclusion and perspectives of the further work will be presented.    Presenters: KIM BANG SALLING is currently employed as an Assistant Professor at the Department of Transport at the Technical University of Denmark. He defended his PhD thesis entitled: Assessment of Transport Projects: Risk Analysis and Decision Support, in November 2008. The latter concerned a decision support model for assessing transport infrastructure projects. By use of the developed CBA-DK software model a new risk-oriented methodology for feasibility risk assessment was developed. He furthermore holds a Master's degree within transport planning and assessment with special emphasis on cost-benefit analyses and risk analyses. Currently he is co-managing a research project for the Danish Strategic Research council entitled: Uncertainties in Transport Project Evaluation (UNITE) that among others contain collaboration with Aalborg University, Oxford University and Princeton University. Recently, he has been co-managing the development of a methodology to prioritise initiatives and projects to promote biking (CPP) and the implementation and use of ITS systems in the Danish road sector for the Danish Road Directorate. Additionally, he has been managing the development of decision-oriented project ranking for the Danish railway asset management system for Rail Net Denmark and involved in the construction of a new transport decision support tool for the Home Rule in Greenland. Finally, he is responsible in an advanced Master and Phd course in Decision Support and Risk Analysis as well as an introductory diploma course in Project Appraisal on Bachelor/Master level.  Michael Bruhn Barfod is currently employed as an Research Assistant and PhD post candidate at the Department of Transport at the Technical University of Denmark. He has recently finished his PhD study entitled: Optimising Transport Decision Making using Customised Decision Models and Decision Conferences. The study concerned the identification of appropriate techniques for Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) and the set-up of decision processes. Furthermore, he holds a Master’s degree within Civil Engineering. His research has mainly been concerned with methods and techniques for MCDA and composite modelling assessments where different methods are combined into an overall assessment methodology. Examples of such are AHP, REMBRANDT and SMART. Moreover, processes of group decision making is a central issue in his research. He has been involved in several projects concerning the development of decision support systems. Recently he has been involved in two projects, one regarding bikes and one regarding ITS systems, for the Danish Road Directorate assessing projects with very limited data using MCDA. Finally, he is responsible for an advanced Master course in Appraisal Methodology. 

The UNITE Modelling System: SIMSIGHT - Risk Simulation and Scenario Foresight

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The UNITE Modelling System: SIMSIGHT - Risk Simulation and Scenario Foresight

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