Bell, Ewen

Borodzicz, Edward

Dreyer, Marion

Haapasaari, Päivi

Hauge, Kjelrun Hiis

Howell, Daniel

Mäntyniemi, Samu

Pastoors, Martin

Röckmann, Christine

Tserpes, George

Ulrich, Clara

Online Research Database In Technology

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Downloaded from orbit.dtu.dk on: Dec 20, 2017Addressing uncertainty in fisheries management through participatory modellingRöckmann, Christine; Hauge, Kjelrun Hiis; Ulrich, Clara; Bell, Ewen; Tserpes, George; Haapasaari, Päivi; Mäntyniemi, Samu; Dreyer, Marion; Howell, Daniel; Borodzicz, Edward; Pastoors, MartinPublication date:2011Document VersionPublisher's PDF, also known as Version of recordLink back to DTU OrbitCitation (APA):Röckmann, C., Hauge, K. H., Ulrich, C., Bell, E., Tserpes, G., Haapasaari, P., ... Pastoors, M. (2011).Addressing uncertainty in fisheries management through participatory modelling.Addressing uncertainty in fisheries management through participatory modellingÖstersund, March 2011Christine Röckmann (presenter)Kjellrun Hiis Hauge, Clara Ulrich, Ewen Bell, George Tserpes, Päivi Haapasaari, Samu Mäntyniemi, Marion Dreyer, Daniel Howell, Edward Borodzicz, Martin PastoorsJudgement And Knowledge in FisheriesInvolving Stakeholders  – the interdisciplinary project team –Outline1. “problem diagnosis”Brief background on fisheries management in Europe 2. "JAKFISH exploratory approach" idea and intention of the JAKFISH project3. "insights gained“Conclusions from participatory modelling Fisheries management in the EUUncertainties in fisheries- You cannot easily count fish (neither alive nor dead)- What is a sustainable fishery? - How to prioritise different objectives – ecological, but also economic and social? - Given high uncertainties and high stakes, what risk (e.g. of stock collapse) is society willing to take?- Does the scientific method fit the policy problem?- What are the scientific assumptions, and do they potentially favour certain values at stake? CONFLICTSConflicts and problem diagnosis- Mistrust due to differing perceptions between scientists and fishers of how many fish there are in the sea - Illegal fishing, black landings Inefficiency of policies and management measures  lack of legitimacy of management decisions and underlying policies Improve the quality of management decisions through PARTICIPATION   involving stakeholders openness and transparency (wrt uncertainty, model assumptions, ...)  including stakeholders’ knowledge and interests to improve the knowledge base basis for building up trust, support, ownership, legitimacyDriver and ideaPolicy driver:Reform of the CFP Participatory modelling - emerging fieldexploratory approachStart/ Basis: - Review of participatory methods- Findings of participatory approaches in river-basin and forest management- Simulation (role play) development to confront stakeholders with each others’ realitiesRegional Advisory Councils (RACs): stakeholder-led organisations: representatives of the fisheries sector and other interest groups (e.g. NGOs)StakeholdersStakeholder input at various stages:• Problem framing• Scenario development• Evaluation / Commenting on• data used• Ecosystem interactions• Uncertainties, Risks• Scenarios• Results• Western Baltic Spring Spawning herringOne case study approachClara Ulrich, A. Coers, K.H. Hauge, L.W. Clausen, C. Olesen, L. Fisher, R. Johansson, M.R. PayneSMALL STOCK, BIG PROBLEMS!Biological and stock assessment issues• Lack of biological knowledge• Model uncertainties • Scientific advice contested by stakeholders Political issues• 4 countries, • 4 fleets, • 2 Regional Advisory Councils• EC initiative: proposal for the establishment of a long term management planParticipatory ModellingModelWhat to evaluate? Management StrategyEvaluationsResultsStakeholdergroupsScientistsHow to evaluate? Uncertainties - Disagreement with a previous scientific suggestions for a management approach- Agreement on a new solution, facilitated through the JAKFISH’s participatory work- Still unresolved issues and differences in interpretation- Have we improved the year-to year management? - The science base isCommunicatedUnderstoodAccepted (~)- The resultAgreed SupportedCase study lessons learnedWe are onthe right track!Commonalities between case studies• Unsustainable fisheries• High uncertainties • Conflicts due to scarce resources, different interpretation about the resource situation• Potential to benefit from scientific modelling to explore management optionsJAKFISH helped stakeholders develop and evaluate management options assessment of epistemic uncertainties stakeholder evaluation of process and outcomeDifferences between case studies The target fish species  The purpose of the participatory modelling Pragmatic – Problem framing and solving: jointly achieving an acceptable result (LTMP) Theoretical – Improving the knowledge base The starting point  Established stakeholder groups, plan in preparation, partly consensus Starting from scratch The process Deliberation, mutual reflection, argumentative exchange Analysis, focus on scientific approachLessons learntLess promising: - Questionnaires, interview surveys to collect feedback- Teaching/ informing stakeholders as THE objectivePromising :  - Face to face interviews, meetings- Teaching/ informing built into the process as a means to achieve a better outcome- Feeling of continuation, long term engagement- Some starting consensus between parties• Make sure to include ALL relevant parties and topics, be aware of official institutional processes• Participatory modelling takes time – and it is worth it JAKFISH budget ensured long-term ‘availability’, but ends soon. What next?Conclusions • Participatory modelling is one approach to increase transparency, mutual learning, understanding of uncertainties and risks, building of mutual trust, goodwill, support and ownership   can improve quality of knowledge base and management decisions in the face of uncertainty  increases legitimacy  • Participatory modelling in JAKFISH has set a step forward on the learning curve, next to other approaches.Where people communicate with each other, it improves people’s ability to understand each other!Thank you!Questions? Comments? Östersund, March 2011Christine Röckmann (presenter)Kjellrun Hiis Hauge, Clara Ulrich, Ewen Bell, George Tserpes, PäiviHaapasaari, Samu Mäntyniemi, Marion Dreyer, Daniel Howell, Edward Borodzicz, Martin PastoorsDifferences between case studies WBSS Herring and Mediterranean Swordfish fisheries Multi-annual management plan in preparation Established stakeholder group, pragmatic  approach, focused North Sea Nephrops fishery Management plan preparation - starting from scratch  Identifying stakeholders, problem framing; unfocused; lack of mutual understanding Central Baltic Herring fisheryIncorporating stakeholder knowledge into modelling Mainly scientific approach: pooling stakeholder info, weighing different views, scoping  for systemic uncertainties and risk probabilitiesMulti-annual management plan in preparation(a) WBSS Herring and Mediterranean Swordfish fisheries already established stakeholder groups;  started with partial consensus (between stakeholders themselves and between stakeholders and scientists) identification of key sources of scientific uncertainty through pedigree matrices  pragmatic approachPedigree Matrices (Funtowicz and Ravetz 1990)  Stock -recruitment Growth  Natural mortality (M) State of  stock  (input in LTMP simulations)  Impact of climate change 4 Clear visual and functional relationship  Well sampled and causes of fluctuations are well understood  Reliable estimates of M  High quality assessment with uncertainty estimates  Well understood consequences of experienced  temperature fluctuations  3 Possible relationship  Well sampled, but causes of fluctuations poorly understood Reliable estimates of M, but not at early life stages  High quality assessment, but limited focus on uncertainty estimates  Known impact on growth or recruitment or distribution                        2 No clear relationship, recent average used  Poor sampling, and environmental effects on growth poorly understood  Poor estimates of M. Rather low quality assessment  Limited knowledge, and not accounted for in modelling  1 Unknown  Unknown  Unknown predation by cod and other top predators of the ecosystem Inadequate data and knowledge in assessment  No knowledge of temperature effects on stock   Goal : addressing non-quantifiableuncertaintyManagement plan preparation -starting from scratchb) Nephrops (Norway lobster) fishery No initial consensus on the problem and how JAKFISH could help.  Stakeholders organised port meetings, “to set out clear objectives and a range of management options”  aiming at a plan that has industry “buy in” Scientists focused on technical modelling challenges; mapping out uncertainties  Lack of mutual understanding; different perceptions about progress  approach was preparatory; next step could be as under (a: WBSSH) Incorporating stakeholder knowledge into modellingc) Central Baltic Herring fishery Scientific approach (Mental modelling, influence diagram, Bayesian model averaging): pooling stakeholder info, weighing different views.  Scoping for systemic uncertainties, and uncertainties related to probability sides of risk graphical “risk register”: to show actions, uncertainties and valuation of consequences

Addressing uncertainty in fisheries management through participatory modelling

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Addressing uncertainty in fisheries management through participatory modelling

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