Balyk, Olexandr

Karlsson, Kenneth Bernard

Online Research Database In Technology

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Downloaded from orbit.dtu.dk on: Dec 20, 2017Optimal Investment Paths for the Danish Energy System in the CEEH ModellingSystemKarlsson, Kenneth Bernard; Balyk, OlexandrPublished in:Collection of Extended AbstractsPublication date:2011Link back to DTU OrbitCitation (APA):Karlsson, K. B., & Balyk, O. (2011). Optimal Investment Paths for the Danish Energy System in the CEEHModelling System. In Collection of Extended Abstracts (pp. 148-150). Centre for Energy, Environment andHealth.  (CEEH Scientific Report; No. 9).O i l h f h i hpt ma  Investment Pat s or t e Dan s  Energy System in the CEEH Modelling SystemKenneth B. Karlsson and Olexandr Balyk DTU Climate Centre, Risø DTUInternational Conference on Energy, Environment and H l h O i i i  f F  E  Sea t – pt m sat on o uture nergy ystemsJune 2nd, 2010Copenhagen, DenmarkCEEH Modelling Framework02/06/2010Optimal Investment Paths for the Danish Energy System in the CEEH Modelling System2 Risø DTUNational Laboratory for Sustainable EnergyInput to the CEEH Machine and output•Economic development H lth t  f  •Demographics• ea cos s romenergy conversion•Global emission data•External health cost for each emission spices (€/kg)•Meteorology•“Optimal” investment patterns for the •Technology data•Fuel costsScandinavian energy system – with focus on Denmark•External environmental •Fuel use and emission from the energy 02/06/2010Optimal Investment Paths for the Danish Energy System in the CEEH Modelling System3 Risø DTUNational Laboratory for Sustainable Energycosts systemUse of CEEH results in IDA2050 plan –www.ida.dk02/06/2010Optimal Investment Paths for the Danish Energy System in the CEEH Modelling System4 Risø DTUNational Laboratory for Sustainable EnergyUse of CEEH results in IDA2050 plan –www.ida.dk02/06/2010Optimal Investment Paths for the Danish Energy System in the CEEH Modelling System5 Risø DTUNational Laboratory for Sustainable EnergyScenarios at different levelsGlobal ScenariosIPCC AR5Air pollution EmissionsRegionalmodelsScenarios(Scandinavia)DG Tren EU-Commission External costsEmissionsEnergy demandLocal S iEnergy system Energy demandcenar osDenmarkADAM-EMMA modelElectricity and DH price02/06/2010Optimal Investment Paths for the Danish Energy System in the CEEH Modelling System6 Risø DTUNational Laboratory for Sustainable EnergyElectricity & DH pricesEnd-use energy ElectricityBalmorelEnergy Macroeconomic j tiIndustryServiceHeat demandTransport fuelsADAM-EMMAservicespro ec ons HouseholdsTransport5.00Heat saving costs, kr/kWh year2025303540øre/kWheOmkostninger til elbesparelser i industrien1.522.532005=1Economic growth in sectors0.000.501.001.502.002.503.003.504.004.500 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000H t i GWh0510150.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0Akkumuleret besparelse PJ/årEfficiencyimprovements00.512005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 20502Trade&Service Industry Private consumptionPerson transport Gods transportea  sav ngs, Air emissions : CO2, SO2, NOx, pm, CO 02/06/2010Optimal Investment Paths for the Danish Energy System in the CEEH Modelling System7 Risø DTUNational Laboratory for Sustainable EnergyEnergy SystemSociety Energy Demand:Electrical appliances, Industrial Power, Heat, Transportbuildingsprocess heatIncluded in BalmorelIndividual Supply:T  BoilersPower and District Heatransporttechnologies02/06/2010Optimal Investment Paths for the Danish Energy System in the CEEH Modelling System8 Risø DTUNational Laboratory for Sustainable EnergyExample of results from BalmorelThe impact of including health costs• Comparing two scenarios with identical inputs except from the inclusion f h th t  o ea cos sPolicy-free scenarios• “Base”-scenario includes health costs and• “No-Health” do not include health costsA full year in the simulation is currently represented by four weeksThe results are preliminary and still needs further investigation and interpretation  ! 02/06/2010Optimal Investment Paths for the Danish Energy System in the CEEH Modelling System9 Risø DTUNational Laboratory for Sustainable EnergyAssumptions I: CO2 Price Development180 00140 00160.00.100.00120.00.on60.0080.00EUR/to20.0040.000.002010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050CO2 Price02/06/2010Optimal Investment Paths for the Danish Energy System in the CEEH Modelling System10 Risø DTUNational Laboratory for Sustainable EnergyAssumptions II: Fuel Price Development252015GJ10EUR/G502010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050Coal Natural Gas Oil Biomass02/06/2010Optimal Investment Paths for the Danish Energy System in the CEEH Modelling System11 Risø DTUNational Laboratory for Sustainable Energyd iDeman  nputsEconomicgrowth in sectorsElectricity and heat demand in D k  N  S d  Fi l d 2.53      enmar , orway, we en, n anand GermanyInclude electricity savings in the i t  b t t h t i11.522005=1npu , u no ea sav ngs.The transport fuel scenario is created exogenous 00.52005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050d & d300Fuels for transportTra e Service In ustry Private consumptionPerson transport Gods transport150200250/yearBiogasHydrogenBio‐dieselEthanol050100PJ/Natural gasElectricityDieselGasoline02/06/2010Optimal Investment Paths for the Danish Energy System in the CEEH Modelling System12 Risø DTUNational Laboratory for Sustainable EnergyTechnology Competiveness: Electricity14012020203.9% 3 2% 3.3% 2.9% 3.2% 2.9% 2.0% 1.9% 80100Wh4.0% 4.0% 8.3% 7 9% 9.1% .3.2% 4060EUR/MW.020‐20CO2 Cost Health Cost O&M Fixed Cost O&M Variable Cost Annuitised Investment Cost Fuel Cost02/06/2010Optimal Investment Paths for the Danish Energy System in the CEEH Modelling System13 Risø DTUNational Laboratory for Sustainable EnergyHeat saving potential (Ref.: Erika Zvingilaite, Risø DTU)Heat saving costs, 80%90%100%Heat Loss in Buildings4.505.00kr/kWh year40%50%60%70%VentilationHot waterWindows3.003.504.0010%20%30%FloorRoofWalls1.502.002.500%Dwellling 2007Dwelling maxOffice 2007 Office max0 000.501.0002/06/2010Optimal Investment Paths for the Danish Energy System in the CEEH Modelling System14 Risø DTUNational Laboratory for Sustainable Energy.0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000Heat savings, GWhNew power capacity in Denmark until 205014,000 16,000 COAL Natural Gas WIND8,000 10,000 12,000 MW2,000 4,000 6,000 ‐CC‐NG‐CC2CC‐NG‐CC3ST‐CO‐CC1T‐CO‐CC2‐CCST‐CO‐CC3‐CCS‐offshore‐CC3‐onshore‐CC1‐onshore‐CC2‐onshore‐CC3‐offshore‐CC2ST‐CO‐CC2CC‐NG‐CC2CC‐NG‐CC3ST‐CO‐CC1T‐CO‐CC2‐CCST‐CO‐CC3‐CCS‐offshore‐CC3‐onshore‐CC1‐onshore‐CC2‐onshore‐CC3‐offshore‐CC2ST‐CO‐CC2STSTWI‐WI‐WI‐WI‐WI‐STSTWI‐WI‐WI‐WI‐WI‐DENMARK DENMARKBASE noHealth02/06/2010Optimal Investment Paths for the Danish Energy System in the CEEH Modelling System15 Risø DTUNational Laboratory for Sustainable EnergyPower capacity in Denmark50,000 60,000 30,000 40,000 W/yearEndo ‐ WIND10,00020,000 M Endo ‐ NAT_GASEndo ‐ COALExogenous‐ BASEealthBASEealthBASEealthBASEealthBASEealthBASEealthBASEealthBASEealthBASEealthBnoHeBnoHeBnoHeBnoHeBnoHeBnoHeBnoHeBnoHeBnoHe2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 205002/06/2010Optimal Investment Paths for the Danish Energy System in the CEEH Modelling System16 Risø DTUNational Laboratory for Sustainable EnergyElectricity production in Denmark120 140 80 100 /year40 60 TWh/‐20 BASE noHealth BASE noHealth BASE noHealth BASE noHealthDENMARK DENMARK DENMARK DENMARK2010 2020 2030 205002/06/2010Optimal Investment Paths for the Danish Energy System in the CEEH Modelling System17 Risø DTUNational Laboratory for Sustainable EnergyCOAL FUELOIL MUNI_WASTE NAT_GAS STRAW WINDTotal fuel consumption in the power sector in Denmark700 800 500 600 300 400 PJ/yearWindStrawNatural gasWasteFuel oil100 200  Coal‐BASE noHealth BASE noHealth BASE noHealth BASE noHealthDENMARK DENMARK DENMARK DENMARK2010 2020 2030 204002/06/2010Optimal Investment Paths for the Danish Energy System in the CEEH Modelling System18 Risø DTUNational Laboratory for Sustainable EnergyEmissionsNOx Emissions40000500006000070000600 100002000030000CO2 emissions400 500 O2/year0BASE noHealth BASE noHealth BASE noHealth2010 2030 2050100 200 300 Megatons CO‐BASE noHealth BASE noHealth BASE noHealth2010 2030 205002/06/2010Optimal Investment Paths for the Danish Energy System in the CEEH Modelling System19 Risø DTUNational Laboratory for Sustainable EnergyHealth costs of Nox emissions600000000700000000Mio. €/year400000000500000000200000000300000000BASEnoHealth0100000000102030405015253545102030405015253545202020202020202020202020202020202020DENMARK FINLAND NORWAY SWEDEN02/06/2010Optimal Investment Paths for the Danish Energy System in the CEEH Modelling System20 Risø DTUNational Laboratory for Sustainable Energy6E+10Heat Saving Potential2 5E 103E+10Implemented Heat Savings5E+101.5E+102E+10. +Wh4E+105E+091E+10kW WINDOWWALLROOFNo-Health2.5E+103E+10Implemented Heat Savings3E+10kWhWINDOWWALL02010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050DENMARK1.5E+102E+10kWhWINDOW2E+10ROOFFLOORBase5E+091E+10WALLROOF1E+1002010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050DENMARK0DENMARK02/06/2010Optimal Investment Paths for the Danish Energy System in the CEEH Modelling System21 Risø DTUNational Laboratory for Sustainable EnergyReturning revised emissions to the air emission modelEmissionsDEHMEmissions02/06/2010Optimal Investment Paths for the Danish Energy System in the CEEH Modelling System22 Risø DTUNational Laboratory for Sustainable EnergyTHANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION AND AN INTERESTING CONFERENCE!Kenneth B. Karlsson: keka@risoe.dtu.dkOlexandr Balyk: obal@risoe.dtu.dkDTU Climate Centre: http://www.dtu.dk/centre/klimacenter/english02/06/2010Optimal Investment Paths for the Danish Energy System in the CEEH Modelling System23 Risø DTUNational Laboratory for Sustainable EnergyFo  RCP IPPC Scena iosur rName Radiative Forcing Concentration Pathways ShapeRCP8.5 8.5W/m2 (in 2100) <= ~1370 CO2-eq RisingRCP6.0 ~6.0W/m2 (stabilization after 2100) ~850 CO2-eq Stabilization without overshootRCP4.5 ~4.5W/m2 (stabilization after 2100) ~650 CO2-eq Stabilization without overshoot02/06/2010Optimal Investment Paths for the Danish Energy System in the CEEH Modelling System24 Risø DTUNational Laboratory for Sustainable EnergyRCP3-PD < 3W/m2 (peak and decline) ֜2.6W/m2 < ~490 CO2-eq Peak & decline24

Optimal Investment Paths for the Danish Energy System in the CEEH Modelling System

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Optimal Investment Paths for the Danish Energy System in the CEEH Modelling System

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