Balyk, Olexandr

Føyn, Tullik Helene Ystanes

Karlsson, Kenneth Bernard

Online Research Database In Technology

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Downloaded from orbit.dtu.dk on: Dec 20, 2017A global renewable energy system - A modelling exercise in ETSAP/TIAMBalyk, Olexandr; Føyn, Tullik Helene Ystanes; Karlsson, Kenneth BernardPublication date:2010Link back to DTU OrbitCitation (APA):Balyk, O., Føyn, T. H. Y., & Karlsson, K. B. (2010). A global renewable energy system - A modelling exercise inETSAP/TIAM [Sound/Visual production (digital)]. Joint TERI-ETSAP Workshop, New Delhi, India, 20/01/20101A global renewable energy system -A modelling exercise in ETSAP/TIAMOlexandr Balyk, T. Helene Ystanes Føyn and Kenneth B. KarlssonDTU Climate Centre, Risø DTUTERI-ETSAP workshop22. January 2010New Delhi, India22/01/2010A global renewable energy system…2 Risø DTU, Technical University of DenmarkAim and background• New group working with TIMES/TIAM• Test the ETSAP-TIAM global energy system model• How far it can take us towards a global 100 % renewable energy system with the existing model database?• Where do we meet limits in global resources and data available in the model?222/01/2010A global renewable energy system…3 Risø DTU, Technical University of DenmarkTIAM – TIMES Integrated Assessment Model22/01/2010A global renewable energy system…4 Risø DTU, Technical University of DenmarkGrowth assumptions (relative)TIAM-15R, version September20080.010.020.030.040.050.060.02005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095GDP Growth0.010.020.030.040.02005 2015 2025 2035 2045 2055 2065 2075 2085 2095GDP per CapitaAFRCHIINDUSAGBL0.501.001.502.002.503.002005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095Population Growth322/01/2010A global renewable energy system…5 Risø DTU, Technical University of DenmarkGrowth assumptions (absolute)TIAM-15R, version September20080500,0001,000,0001,500,0002,000,0002,500,0002005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095Population, thousands010,000,00020,000,00030,000,00040,000,00050,000,00060,000,00070,000,0002005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095GDP, M€050.025.050.075.0100.0125.0150.0175.0200.02005 2015 2025 2035 2045 2055 2065 2075 2085 2095GDP per capita, k€05AFRCHIINDUSA22/01/2010A global renewable energy system…6 Risø DTU, Technical University of DenmarkForcing renewables into the global energy systemScenarios:• Reference scenario– Standard assumptions, policy-free• Alternative scenario I: CO2 ppm– CO2 concentration in atmosphere restricted to 400 ppm• Alternative scenario II: global CO2e price– The price for GHG emission fixed to 400 Euro per tonne CO2e422/01/2010A global renewable energy system…7 Risø DTU, Technical University of DenmarkCO2 concentration and system costs350400450500550600650700750800200520122019202620332040204720542061206820752082Reference400 ppm400 EUR/tCO2ppmScenarios Costs above reference scenario (billion €)400 ppm 38,955400 EUR/tCO2 157,77022/01/2010A global renewable energy system…8 Risø DTU, Technical University of DenmarkPower generation0500001000001500002000002500002005 2007 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2065 2088TWh400 ppm0500001000001500002000002500002005 2007 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2065 2088TWh400 EUR/tCO20500001000001500002000002500002005 2007 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2065 2088TWhCCSCH4 OPTIONOTHER RENEWABLESOIL AND GASNUCLEARHYDROCOALBIOMASSReference522/01/2010A global renewable energy system…9 Risø DTU, Technical University of DenmarkPower generation (cont.)• Large increase in power generation in alternative scenarios– Fuel switching in industry– Synergies between CCS and methanol – methanol penetrates in road transport22/01/2010A global renewable energy system…10 Risø DTU, Technical University of DenmarkFinal energy consumption020040060080010001200140016002005 2007 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2065 2088EJ400 ppm020040060080010001200140016002005 2007 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2065 2088EJ400 EUR/tCO2020040060080010001200140016002005 2007 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2065 2088EJ OTHER RENEWABLESOILHYDROGENHEATGASELECTRICITYCOALBIOALCOHOLSReference622/01/2010A global renewable energy system…11 Risø DTU, Technical University of DenmarkRoad transport energy demand0204060801001201402005 2007 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2065 2088EJNatural GasMethanolLiquified Petroleum GasHydrogenGasolineEthanolElectricityDieselReference0204060801001201402005 2007 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2065 2088EJ400 ppm0204060801001201402005 2007 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2065 2088EJ400 EUR/tCO222/01/2010A global renewable energy system…12 Risø DTU, Technical University of DenmarkFossil resources and cumulative use in 2100010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,000EJCumulative useHard coalLigniteUnonventionalConventional126,485Source: “Review of resources and trade of fossil energy resources in the TIAM model” (ETSAP) and own calculations.722/01/2010A global renewable energy system…13 Risø DTU, Technical University of DenmarkRenewable resource utilisation (2050)22/01/2010A global renewable energy system…14 Risø DTU, Technical University of DenmarkConclusions• A 100% renewable energy system was not achieved• The system went (very) close to the resource limits• Important to refine renewable resource potentials if a global 100% renewable energy system is sought• Harder to reach a 100 % renewable system with the high economic growth scenario used in the current TIAM version• Given the large efficiency potentials that exist now and in the future, energy efficiency is an important area where the databases for TIAM and thereby the investment possibilities for the model probably could be improved 822/01/2010A global renewable energy system…15 Risø DTU, Technical University of DenmarkDiscussion• More detailed mapping of resource potentials will improve the model, including consideration of local conditions– Plan: to increase level of detail for renewable resources in the TIAM database for each of the 15 regions– Example: Wind power potential in Denmark and assumed production cost of 1 MWh electricity • Particularly problematic: biomass. – Complex link between biomass for energy, food and fodder – Varying yields– Improved database through detailed local studiesPlacement Potential PJ/year $/MWhOnshore 33 80Offshore – near coast 144 90Offshore – far from coast 1040 13022/01/2010A global renewable energy system…16 Risø DTU, Technical University of DenmarkThe way forward...• Internally financed project on renewable potentials and integration, with focus on India and China• Applications:– InterAirPAC – Interaction of Air Pollution, Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Change• TIAM for global scenarios– Development of an integrated framework and model system for health impact assessment of GHG reduction policies in urban areas of Europe and China• TIAM for global scenarios and policy analysis922/01/2010A global renewable energy system…17 Risø DTU, Technical University of DenmarkTHANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION!Olexandr Balyk: obal@risoe.dtu.dkT. Helene Ystanes Føyn: tufn@risoe.dtu.dkDTU Climate Centre: http://www.dtu.dk/centre/Klimacenter/english.aspx

A global renewable energy system - A modelling exercise in ETSAP/TIAM

http://orbit.dtu.dk/ws/files/10144362/Energimodel.pdf

A global renewable energy system - A modelling exercise in ETSAP/TIAM

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