Hels, Tove

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Downloaded from orbit.dtu.dk on: Dec 19, 2017Uheldsmodeller på DTU Transport - nu og fremoverHels, TovePublication date:2011Document VersionOgså kaldet Forlagets PDFLink back to DTU OrbitCitation (APA):Hels, T. (2011). Uheldsmodeller på DTU Transport - nu og fremover [Lyd og/eller billed produktion (digital)].,01/01/2011Uheldsmodeller på DTU Transport – nu og fremover  Tove Hels, ths@transport.dtu.dk     Workshop om uheldsmodeller Trafitec 29. november 2011 Emner • ’Deskriptiv’ modellering • Modellering af hastighed og uheld • Disaggregeret modellering, trafikanten i centrum • Vejtypemodellering, vejtypen i centrum • Tidsseriemodellering, det aggregerede antal uheld pr. tidsenhed er i centrum  Uheldsmodeller Tove Hels © DTU Transport ’Deskriptiv’ modellering Tove Hels © DTU Transport Uheldsmodeller 1 Jan 20031 Jan 20041 Jan 20051 Jan 20061 Jan 20071 Jan 20081 Jan 20091 Jan 2010studyperiodspeed limit raiseddemerit point system introducedbeforeperiod initial periodfirst afterperiod second afterperiodtime130 km/t på motorvejene ’Deskriptiv’ modellering Tove Hels © DTU Transport Uheldsmodeller Model Variable Value Estimate Significance Y: mean speed (km/h) X:   intercept  111.84 P<0.0001 road type  110-road:  5.72 P<0.0001  130-road: 6.70 Cph-road:  ref. month  0.04 P<0.0001 season  winter: ref. P<0.0001  spring: 1.76 summer: 1.16 autumn: 1.05 period + (road type * period)  110 road  before: ref. P<0.0001 (period) P<0.0001  (road type* period) 110 road  initial: -5.27 110 road  after 1: -4.23 110 road  after 2: -4.56 130 road  before: ref. 130 road  initial: -1.19 130 road  after 1: -0.45 130 road  after 2: -0.35 Cph road  before: ref. Cph road  initial: -4.37 Cph road  after 1: -3.54 Cph road  after 2: -4.52  F-value= 545.56, R-square= 0.97, N=275.  Deskriptiv modellering Tove Hels © DTU Transport Uheldsmodeller    Hastighedsudvikling på   110 motorveje     130 motorveje 106 108 110 112 114 116 118 120 122 124 01-01-2002 30-06-2002 27-12-2002 25-06-2003 22-12-2003 19-06-2004 16-12-2004 14-06-2005 11-12-2005 09-06-2006 06-12-2006 04-06-2007 01-12-2007 29-05-2008 25-11-2008 24-05-2009 20-11-2009 Mean speed (km/h) Time 106 108 110 112 114 116 118 120 122 124 01-01-2002 30-06-2002 27-12-2002 25-06-2003 22-12-2003 19-06-2004 16-12-2004 14-06-2005 11-12-2005 09-06-2006 06-12-2006 04-06-2007 01-12-2007 29-05-2008 25-11-2008 24-05-2009 20-11-2009 Mean speed (km/h) Time før initial efter1 efter2 før initial efter1 efter2 Hastighed-uheld modellering Tove Hels © DTU Transport Uheldsmodeller Hastighed-uheld modellering Tove Hels © DTU Transport Uheldsmodeller   Exponent in the power model Road type Variables Exponent from Elvik (2009) Exponent without a control group Exponent with a control group 130 motorways PIA-1 1.6 -31.2 -71.5 PIA-2 28.0 -79.3 Injuries-1 2.2 -15.7 -61.2 Injuries-2  32.9 -83.3 110 motorways PIA-1 1.6 10.5 6.2 PIA-2  10.2 2.4 Injuries-1 2.2 18.1 6.7 Injuries-2  -1.5 5.9  xførefterførefterhastighedhastigheduhelduheld)(=Potensmodellen Hastighed-uheld modellering Tove Hels © DTU Transport Uheldsmodeller Antal uheld Vejrlig Uheldsrisiko Hastighed Trafikarbejde Politikontrol + ÷ + + + ÷ ÷ + ÷ Uheldsmodellering Tove Hels © DTU Transport Uheldsmodeller  WP1Variables for accidents modellingWP2Road user attitudes and behaviourWP4Assessing the value of accident consequencesWP3Accidents modellingWP5Future traffic safety policiesWP0ManagementIMPROSA Uheldsmodellering Tove Hels © DTU Transport Uheldsmodeller IMPROSA •   Disaggregeret modellering, trafikanten i centrum  •   Vejtypemodellering, vejtypen i centrum  •   Aggregeret modellering (tidsserier), det aggregerede antal uheld pr. tidsenhed er i centrum Uheldsmodellering unikke data • Uheldsdata • politiregistrerede uheld • skadestuedata - Odense • Landpatientregistret • Transportvaneundersøgelsen - eksponeringsdata • Socioøkonomiske og demografiske data på individniveau (Danmarks Statistik) Uheldsmodellering Tove Hels © DTU Transport Uheldsmodeller Aggregeret modellering Disaggregeret modellering Eksponerings- og risikotendenser som funktion af samfundstendenser: •  brændstofpriser, BNP, billetpriser til kollektiv trafik,… •  længde og kvalitet af vejnettet •  større ændringer i lovgivning og politikontrol Eksponerings- og risikotendenser som funktion af individuelle variable: •  trafikantadfærd (acceptans af risiko, hastighedsvalg, biltypevalg, etc.) •  trafikantens alder, erfaring, uddannelse, etc. Trafikmængde Vejtype Predikteret antal uheld Vejtypemodellering Andet Tove Hels © DTU Transport Sociale Karakteristika Tove Hels, ths@transport.dtu.dk DTU Transport Tak for opmærksomheden… 

Uheldsmodeller på DTU Transport - nu og fremover

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Uheldsmodeller på DTU Transport - nu og fremover

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