The Economic Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on Tourism in Croatia

Abstract

Svrha ovog doktorskog rada bila je istražiti i analizirati ekonomske učinke izravnih inozemnih ulaganja u turizam, predložiti metodologiju vrednovanja ekonomskih učinaka izravnih inozemnih ulaganja u turizam i na primjeru mikrorazine i makrorazine Republike Hrvatske te naposljetku predložiti smjernice za privlačenje adekvatnih izravnih inozemnih ulaganja u turizam Republike Hrvatske. U empirijskom dijelu ovog doktorskog rada procijenjeni su ekonomski učinci izravnih inozemnih ulaganja u turizam na primjeru hotela u inozemnom vlasništvu na mikrolokaciji Republike Hrvatske, a zatim su ti učinci konzistentno povezati s makrorazinom. Ciljem ocjenjivanja ekonomskih učinaka izravnih inozemnih ulaganja u turizam na mikrorazini provedena je studija slučaja 'Terma Tuhelj'. Primjer Terma Tuhelj pokazao je kako jedan hotel u inozemnom vlasništvu, u manje razvijenoj zemlji, ima značajan razvojni učinak na lokalno gospodarstvo. Nasuprot nedostatku inozemnog ulaganja u Terme Tuhelj, čime je došlo do gubitka domaćeg vlasništva, identificirano je mnoštvo pozitivnih učinaka koji su proizašli kao rezultat djelovanja novog vlasnika. Najvažnije od svega je možda naglasiti kako se općina Tuhelj u jeku financijske krize razvijala. Istraživanje učinaka na makrorazini provedeno je u dva dijela. U prvom su dijelu istraživanja ispitani učinci portfelja izravnih inozemnih ulaganja u turizam i ostalih relevantnih kontrolnih varijabli na produktivnosti turističkog sektora putem modela proširene Cobb-Douglasove proizvodne funkcije. U drugom su dijelu istraživanja ispitana kointegracija i uzročnosti portfelja izravnih inozemnih ulaganja i bruto dodane vrijednosti u turizmu, portfelja izravnih inozemnih ulaganja u turizam i broja dolazaka inozemnih turista, te ukupnog portfelja izravnih inozemnih ulaganja u Republiku Hrvatsku i portfelja izravnih inozemnih ulaganja u turistički sektor. U prvom dijelu istraživanja na makrorazini, rezultati provedene regresije pokazali su kako portfelj izravnih inozemnih ulaganja u turizam ima pozitivan signifikantan učinak na produktivnost turističkog sektora. Drugim riječima, portfelj izravnih inozemnih ulaganja u turističkom sektoru utjecao je na rast produktivnosti turističkog sektora u promatranom razdoblju. Drugi dio makroistraživanja dokazao je VECM modelom kako postoji stabilna dugoročna veza između portfelja izravnih inozemnih ulaganja i bruto dodane vrijednosti u turizmu. Toda-Yamamotovim testom uzročnosti dokazana je i kratkoročna veza, odnosno potvrđena je uzročna veza od izravnih inozemnih ulaganja k bruto dodanoj vrijednosti. Također je Grangerovim i Toda-Yamamotovim testom uzročnosti dokazana kratkoročna veza, odnosno potvrđena je uzročna vezu od izravnih inozemnih ulaganja u turizam k ukupnim izravnim inozemnim ulaganjima u Republiku Hrvatsku te uzročna veza od izravnih inozemnih ulaganja u turizam k broju dolazaka inozemnih gostiju. Zaključeno je kako Hrvatska i njene destinacije trebaju, kako bi što skorije postale zanimljive međunarodnom inozemnom kapitalu te si time osigurale nužni razvojni kontinuitet i dodatno unapređenje konkurentske sposobnosti, prije svega, ukloniti ili makar neutralizirati značajna postojeća investicijska ograničenja. Za izravna inozemna ulaganja u turizam od posebnog je značaja politička stabilnosti regije, poticajni makroekonomski uvjeti poslovanja, otklanjanje administrativnih i zakonodavnih barijera, otklanjanje imidža zemlje kao 'korumpirane destinacije' i educiranje adekvatnog turističkog kadra svih razina.A purpose of this doctoral thesis was to explore and analyse the economic impact of foreign direct investment, propose a methodology of evaluating the economic impact of foreign direct investment in tourism of Croatia at the micro and the macro level and, at last, propose the guidelines to attract the appropriate foreign direct investment in tourism of Croatia. At the empirical part of this doctoral thesis the economic impact of foreign direct investment in tourism of Croatia was estimated. The impact was estimated at micro levelthrough an example of foreign-owned hotel and then these effects were consistently linked to the macro level. The economic impact of foreign direct investment in tourism at micro level was assessed through a case study of ‘Terme Tuhelj’. The example of ‘Terme Tuhelj’ showed that a foreign-owned hotel, in less developed country, has a significant development impact on the local economy. In contrast to the negative aspect of foreign investment in Tuhelj which resulted in a loss of local ownership, it has also been identified a number of positive effects that have arisen as a result of the new owner. Perhaps most important of all is to noted that the municipality Tuhelj in the midst of financial crisis has been developing itself. The research of the effects on the macro level was conducted in two parts. In the first part the effects of the portfolio of foreign direct investment in tourism and other relevant control variables on the productivity of the tourism sector was examined through the model of the extended Cobb-Douglas production function. In the second part a cointegration and causality between the portfolio of foreign direct investment and gross value added in tourism, the portfolio of foreign direct investment in tourism and the number of foreign tourist arrivals and the total portfolio of foreign direct investment in Croatia and the portfolio of foreign direct investment in tourism was examined. In the first part of the research at the macro level, the results of the regression showed that the portfolio of foreign direct investment in tourism has a significant positive effect on the productivity of the tourism sector. In other words, the portfolio of foreign direct investment in the tourism sector contributed to the productivity growth of the tourism sector in the observed period. The second part of the research at the macro level, through the VECM model, proved that there is a stable long-term relationship between the portfolio of foreign direct investment and gross value added in tourism. A short-term relationship was also proved, respectively, the causal relationship from the foreign direct investment to gross value added was confirmed through Toda-Yamamoto causality test. Granger and Toda-Yamamoto causality test also proved a short-term relationship, respectively, confirmed the causal relationship of foreign direct investment in tourism to total foreign direct investments in Croatia, and the causal relationship of foreign direct investment in tourism to the number of foreign tourist arrivals. It was concluded that Croatia and its destination should, as soon as possible, in order to become interesting to international foreign capital and thereby ensure the necessary continuity of development and further improvement of competitive ability, first of all, remove, or at least neutralize the significant existing investment restrictions. A special significance for tourism-FDI attraction have political stability, encouraging macroeconomic business conditions, the elimination of administrative and legislative barriers, removing the country's image as a 'corrupted destination' and education of tourism staff on all levels