The Economic Position of the Croatian Hotel Industry and Economic Policy Measures

Abstract

Turizam je danas priznat kao važan pokretač društveno-ekonomskoga razvoja. Uporište takvoj tvrdnji daje njegov doprinos bruto domaćem proizvodu mnogih zemalja. On nije djelatnost već skup odnosa i pojava te stoga kada se govori o financijskim učincima turizma onda se misli na učinke realizirane kroz ugostiteljsku djelatnost, ali i s njom povezane djelatnosti kao npr. maloprodaja, promet, trgovina i turističko posredništvo i dr. Specifičnost turizma ogleda se u činjenici da je kupac taj koji putuje prema proizvodu, a ne proizvod prema kupcu. Manje razvijene zemlje, kojima pripada i Hrvatska, veći dio financijskoga rezultata turizma ostvaruju na međunarodnom tržištu što djeluje pozitivno na platnu bilancu neke zemlje. Suvremena ekonomska teorija turizam svrstava u specifičan oblik finalne potrošnje, a povezanost s gospodarstvom tumači kroz uobičajene segmente potrošnje – osobnu (tekuću) turističku potrošnju, investicijsku i javnu potrošnju u funkciji turizma te (nevidljivi) izvoz turističkih usluga. Hrvatsko hotelijerstvo ostvaruje više od 50% prihoda generiranih u ugostiteljskoj djelatnosti, od čega samo hoteli realiziraju 90% ukupnih prihoda hotelijerstva. Ako se do sada rečenom pridoda i podatak da hoteli čine svega 25% ukupnih smještajnih kapaciteta ugostiteljstva onda je jasan gospodarski potencijal ovog sektora. Na ekonomski položaj svakoga poduzeća pa tako i hotelskoga utječu činitelji koje poduzeće može (endogeni) i oni koje ne može kontrolirati (egzozeni). Doktorski rad posvećuje pažnju utjecaju ekonomske politike na ekonomski položaj hotelskih poduzeća i čitavog sektora (hotelijerstva). Dugo analizirano razdoblje (1961−2010) ekonomskoga položaja hrvatskoga hotelijerstva upućuje na činjenicu da, usprkos postojećim komparativnim prednostima, koje su prerasle u konkurentske na svjetskom tržištu, hotelijeri godinama posluju na granici profitabilnosti ili što je češći slučaj s gubitkom (u 2011. neto marža profita iznosi -11,43%). Izračunati Altmanov Z-score sektora od 2007. upozorava na mogućnost nastupa stečaja. Nepoticajno makroekonomsko i poslovno okruženje koje kreira ekonomska politika bitno određuje takav položaj. Poduzete mjere ekonomske politike nisu bile dovoljno učinkovite po pitanju unapređenja ekonomskoga položaja hrvatskoga hotelijerstva. Mjere ekonomske politike bile su odraz nedorečene politike razvoja turizma pa samim time i hotelijerstva. Usporedba ekonomskoga položaja hrvatskoga hotelijerstva s hotelijerstvom izabranih zemalja (Španjolska, Francuska, Italija, Mađarska, Grčka i Turska) ukazuje na lošiji ekonomski položaj hrvatskoga što je djelom i odraz (ne)poduzetih mjera ekonomske politike. Rad je dokazao da odabrane sastavnice ekonomske politike (PDV, tečaj i kamatna stopa) bitno predodređuju ekonomski položaj hrvatskoga hotelijerstva na način da ograničavaju uspješnost poslovanja mjerenu ostvarenim bruto rezultatom. Model međuovisnosti ključnih sastavnica ekonomske politike i ekonomskoga položaja hotelijerstva pokazuje da promjene odabranih sastavnica mogu rezultirati pozitivnim bruto rezultatom hotelijerstva. U aplikativnom smislu model može poslužiti kao dobra polazna točka u definiranju novih mjera ekonomske politike kako za hrvatsko hotelijerstvo tako i za s njim, po izvoznom potencijalu, povezanim djelatnostima (poljoprivreda, tekstilna industrija, itd.). Unatoč pozitivnim učincima primjene proaktivnih mjera važno je prepoznati i stanovita ograničenja koja se vežu uz stanje proračuna, zaduženosti, rizik zemlje i sl.Tourism is now days recognized as an important driver of socio-economic development. Stronghold of such claim is his contribution to gross domestic product of many countries. Tourism is not an activity but a set of relations and phenomena, and therefore when talking about the financial impacts of tourism it implies the effects realized through the hospitality industry, but also the related activities, such as retail, transportation, trade and tourism intermediation etc. The specific nature of tourism is reflected in the fact that the customer is the one who is traveling to the product, not the product to the customer. Less developed countries, like Croatia, most of the financial results achieve in the international tourism market, which has a positive effect on the balance of payments of the country. Modern economic theory regards tourism as specific form of final consumption, and its connectivity with the economy is interpreted through the usual consumption segments - personal (current) tourism consumption, investment and public spending for tourism and the (invisible) export of tourist services. Croatian hotel industry achieves more than 50% of the revenue generated in the Hospitality and Catering Industry of which only hotels realized 90% of total revenues of hotel industry. The fact that hotels comprise only 25% of the total accommodation capacity of hospitality says a lot about economic potential of this sector. Economic position of each company, including hotels, is determined by factors that can be (endogenous) and cannot be (exogenous) controlled by a company. The thesis pays attention to the impact of economic policy on the economic position of the hotel companies and the whole sector (hotel industry). Analysed economic position of the Croatian hotel industry (1961−2010) indicates that despite the existing comparative advantages, that evolved into the competitive in the world market, hoteliers have been operating on the verge of profitability or as often the case with a loss (in 2011 net profit margin is -11.43%). From 2007 calculated Altman Z-score for the sector warns of the possibility that bankruptcy may occur. Disincentive macroeconomic and business environment that economic policy creates essentially defines such economic position of the Croatian hotel industry. Economic policy measures taken were not sufficiently effective in terms of improving the economic position of Croatian hotel industry. They were a reflection of incomplete tourism development policy and thus the hotel industry development policy. Comparison of the economic position of the Croatian hotel industry to the hotel industry of selected countries (Spain, France, Italy, Hungary, Greece and Turkey) indicates worse economic position of Croatian hotels which is partly a reflection of measures that were not taken. Thesis has proved that the selected components of economic policy (VAT, exchange rate and interest rate) significantly predetermine the economic position of the Croatian hotel industry in the way that they limit business performance measured by gross profit. Model of the interdependence between key components of economic policy and economic position of hotel industry shows that changes of selected components can result in a positive gross profit for the hotel industry. In terms of applicability model can serve as a good starting point in defining a new economic policy measures for Croatian hotel industry and as well for him, regarding export potential, related activities (agriculture, textiles, etc.). Despite the positive effects of the implementation of proactive measures it is important to recognize certain limitations associated with the state budget, debt, country risk, etc