Knoche, H.R.

Kunstmann, H.

Seiler, W.

Knoche, H. R.

KITopen

Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-IFU), Garmisch-PartenkirchenForschungszentrum Karlsruhein der Helmholtz-GemeinschaftKlimawandel und Auswirkungen auf den WasserhaushaltHarald Kunstmann Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung (IMK-IFU)Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe GmbHGarmisch-Partenkirchenharald.kunstmann@imk.fzk.deInstitute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-IFU), Garmisch-PartenkirchenForschungszentrum Karlsruhein der Helmholtz-GemeinschaftGIS as Central Tool in Climate Research & Hydrology• Data base of spatial and tabular data• Processing of vector and raster model input data adapted for specific model needs (e.g. land use, topography, soil type/texture, …)   - data exchange in standardized formats- resampling (e.g. change of resolutions)- change of projection- tool boxes for hydrological applications (flow net, slope, etc from DEM)• Visualisation of spatial data• Trend towards web services: access of GIS functionalities without own programming over internetInstitute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-IFU), Garmisch-PartenkirchenForschungszentrum Karlsruhein der Helmholtz-GemeinschaftGlobal Change – Global WarmingWinterSummerEuropean annual and seasonal mean temperature deviations, 1850-20022000-1.5-1-0.500.511.5185018601870188018901900191019201930194019501960197019801990Temperature deviation, compared to 1961-1990 avg. (°C)Annual• Global temperature: + 0.7 ±0.2 °C in last 100 years• Europe: +0.95 °C;  Alps +1.6°C• Summer +0.7°C ;  Winter +1.1°CInstitute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-IFU), Garmisch-PartenkirchenForschungszentrum Karlsruhein der Helmholtz-GemeinschaftWhy Worrying About Temperature Increases?• Physical background: 1) warm air masses can carry more moisture2) increased temperatures yield increased potential evapotranspiration• Consequence: Intensification of water cycleincreased atmospheric humidity, increased precipitation amounts• Changes in seasonality, regional distribution and intensities- large regional differences possible- small large scale changes can yield large regional impacts• Socioeconomic implications through changing 1) flooding risks 2) drought risksInstitute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-IFU), Garmisch-PartenkirchenForschungszentrum Karlsruhein der Helmholtz-GemeinschaftLooking into the future: Climate ScenariosPopulation Growth     Economic Development Technological ProgressEmission ScenariosGreenhouse Gas ConcentrationsGlobal Climate ModelsGlobal Climate ScenariosInstitute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-IFU), Garmisch-PartenkirchenForschungszentrum Karlsruhein der Helmholtz-GemeinschaftLooking into the future: Climate Scenarios• Our studies: scenario B2 (“local solutions“) scenario IS92a (“business as usual”)• Focus on time slicesB2: 1960-1989 & 2070-2099IS92a: 1991-2000 & 2030-2039 i  i  l l l ti  i  I i   l  ti  li:   I :   Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-IFU), Garmisch-PartenkirchenForschungszentrum Karlsruhein der Helmholtz-GemeinschaftGlobal Climate Scenarios: Projected Changes in Annual Precipitation for the 2050sHadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research⇒ Resolution too coarse for regional impact analysis !Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-IFU), Garmisch-PartenkirchenForschungszentrum Karlsruhein der Helmholtz-GemeinschaftPopulation Growth     Economic Development Technological ProgressEmission ScenariosGreenhouse Gas ConcentrationsGlobal Climate ModelsGlobal Climate ScenariosDownscaling MethodsRegional Climate ScenariosInstitute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-IFU), Garmisch-PartenkirchenForschungszentrum Karlsruhein der Helmholtz-GemeinschaftLooking into the Future: Regional Climate ModelingExplicit dynamical downscaling:Numerical simulation of atmospheric processesby finite difference schemes solving atmospheric PDEsInstitute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-IFU), Garmisch-PartenkirchenForschungszentrum Karlsruhein der Helmholtz-GemeinschaftOrography with different resolutionsLooking into the Future: Regional Climate Modeling∆ = 10 km∆ = 100 kmInstitute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-IFU), Garmisch-PartenkirchenForschungszentrum Karlsruhein der Helmholtz-GemeinschaftLooking into the Future: Regional Climate ModelingLower boundary for atmospheric model: SVAT-modelAccounting for soil-vegetation-atmosphere feedback effectsInstitute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-IFU), Garmisch-PartenkirchenForschungszentrum Karlsruhein der Helmholtz-GemeinschaftExamples1) Germany• Changing flood risks?• Changing snow conditions?2) West Africa: Volta Basin• Changing water availability?Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-IFU), Garmisch-PartenkirchenForschungszentrum Karlsruhein der Helmholtz-GemeinschaftExample 1:Regional Climate Change Germany Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-IFU), Garmisch-PartenkirchenForschungszentrum Karlsruhein der Helmholtz-GemeinschaftAlpine area: 3-4°C „hot spot“ in EuropeWinter SommerRegional Climate Change GermanyInstitute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-IFU), Garmisch-PartenkirchenForschungszentrum Karlsruhein der Helmholtz-GemeinschaftRegional Climate Change Southern GermanyTemperature Change [°C] , 2070-99 vs. 1960-89, ∆=19km-505101520251 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12MonatTemperatur (°C)1960-19892070-2099Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-IFU), Garmisch-PartenkirchenForschungszentrum Karlsruhein der Helmholtz-GemeinschaftRegional Climate Change GermanyUp to 30% more precipitation in winter (Europe ≈ +11%)Up to 40% less precipitation in summer (Europe ≈ -1%)Winter DJF Summer JJAInstitute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-IFU), Garmisch-PartenkirchenForschungszentrum Karlsruhein der Helmholtz-GemeinschaftRegional Climate Change South West GermanySurface Runoff Change [%], 2070-99 vs. 1960-89, ∆=19kmUp to 80% more surface runoff in winterUp to 50% less surface runoff in summerWinter DJF Summer JJAInstitute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-IFU), Garmisch-PartenkirchenForschungszentrum Karlsruhein der Helmholtz-GemeinschaftRegional Climate Change GermanyChange in frequency of heavy precipitation (2070-99 vs. 1960-89)Change in number of days/year P > 10 mmInstitute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-IFU), Garmisch-PartenkirchenForschungszentrum Karlsruhein der Helmholtz-GemeinschaftRegional Climate Change South West GermanyChange in frequency of heavy precipitation P > 10mmIncrease of days with heavy precipitation in winterDecrease of days with heavy precipitation in summerWinter DJF Summer JJAInstitute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-IFU), Garmisch-PartenkirchenForschungszentrum Karlsruhein der Helmholtz-GemeinschaftRegional Climate ChangeDays with Snow CoverDecrease of number of days with snow coverInstitute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-IFU), Garmisch-PartenkirchenForschungszentrum Karlsruhein der Helmholtz-GemeinschaftRegional Climate Change: Northern Alpine Area700800900100011001200130014001500160017000 10 20 30TageHöhe(m)1960-892070-99700800900100011001200130014001500160017000 10 20 30TageHöhe(m)1960-892070-99Days with Snow coverJanuary MarchChanges of snow cover with height: ≈ 500m ⇒ Runoff amplificationInstitute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-IFU), Garmisch-PartenkirchenForschungszentrum Karlsruhein der Helmholtz-GemeinschaftRegional Climate Change South West GermanyChange of 10-days Precipitation Sum [mm]2070-2099 vs. 1960-1989 -20-15-10-505101520Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecMonthChange of Precipitation [mm]Increased winter-, decreased summer precipitationInstitute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-IFU), Garmisch-PartenkirchenForschungszentrum Karlsruhein der Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft0123456789100 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72 78 84 90 96mm/dayDays/year1960-89 2070-99Increase of  frequency of heavy precipitationRegional Climate Change South West GermanyInstitute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-IFU), Garmisch-PartenkirchenForschungszentrum Karlsruhein der Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft0123456789100 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72 78 84 90 96mm/dayDays/winter 1960-89 2070-99Winter (DJF): Increase of  frequency of heavy precipitationRegional Climate Change South West Germany!Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-IFU), Garmisch-PartenkirchenForschungszentrum Karlsruhein der Helmholtz-GemeinschaftImpact of Climate Change on Runoff GermanyChange in runoff characteristics1) less pronounced low water in wintertimeincrease of wintertime flooding(snow ∞, precipitation Æ)2) decrease in summer runoff - anticipated precipitation decrease - reduced snow melt water- increased evapotranspiration3) Reduction of buffering by glaciers ⇒ tendency towards smoothed runoff characteristicsBut: - in general increased flooding risk (increase in heavy precipitation)- large regional differencesInstitute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-IFU), Garmisch-PartenkirchenForschungszentrum Karlsruhein der Helmholtz-GemeinschaftExample 2:Regional Climate Change West Africa &  Volta Basin Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-IFU), Garmisch-PartenkirchenForschungszentrum Karlsruhein der Helmholtz-GemeinschaftSPECIFIC LOCAL PROBLEMS • Population growth• Increased pressure on natural resources (water, hydropower, agricultural products)• Amplification of vulnerability trough climate chnage?Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-IFU), Garmisch-PartenkirchenForschungszentrum Karlsruhein der Helmholtz-GemeinschaftThe Volta BasinInstitute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-IFU), Garmisch-PartenkirchenForschungszentrum Karlsruhein der Helmholtz-GemeinschaftResearch questionHow does atmospheric change translate into change of terrestrial hydrology? Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-IFU), Garmisch-PartenkirchenForschungszentrum Karlsruhein der Helmholtz-GemeinschaftMM53-dim Atmospheric modelWaSiMDistributed Hydrological Modell• Orography• Land Use• Soil Properties• Aquifer Properties• Flownet Structure• Temperature• Precipitation• Wind• Relative Humidity• Global RadiationEvapotranspiration Surface RunoffGroundwater FlowInfiltration2.5x2.5° → 9x9 km2 ResolutionMethodology: 1-Way Coupled Meteorology-Hydrology Simulations1000x1000 m2 ResolutionInstitute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-IFU), Garmisch-PartenkirchenForschungszentrum Karlsruhein der Helmholtz-GemeinschaftSetup Hydrological ModelTotal Area  400.000 km²Horizontal resolution1x1km²Vertikal resolution20x1mTemporal resolution1 dayInstitute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-IFU), Garmisch-PartenkirchenForschungszentrum Karlsruhein der Helmholtz-GemeinschaftPerformance of Coupled Model System⇒ Satisfying model performance⇒ model is suited to reproduce hydrological processesin Volta BasinInstitute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-IFU), Garmisch-PartenkirchenForschungszentrum Karlsruhein der Helmholtz-GemeinschaftValidation Regional Climate SimulationsMean monthly precipitation [mm] domain3⇒ Satisfying reproduction of annual precipitation course & monthly amountsInstitute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-IFU), Garmisch-PartenkirchenForschungszentrum Karlsruhein der Helmholtz-GemeinschaftResults Regional Climate SimulationsTemperature Change [°C] (2030-2039 vs. 1991-2000)1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 122829303132333435temperature [°C]00.511.522.5monthschange [°C]change1991−20002030−2039Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-IFU), Garmisch-PartenkirchenForschungszentrum Karlsruhein der Helmholtz-GemeinschaftResults Regional Climate SimulationsPrecipitation Change [°C] (2030-2039 vs. 1991-2000) [%]Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-IFU), Garmisch-PartenkirchenForschungszentrum Karlsruhein der Helmholtz-GemeinschaftResults Regional Climate Simulations⇒ Significant decrease of precipitation in April (onset rainy season)Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-IFU), Garmisch-PartenkirchenForschungszentrum Karlsruhein der Helmholtz-GemeinschaftInterannual variabilityÄnderung im Beginn der Regenzeit100varXσ=Sahel Guinea Coast1991-2000[DOY]124 1052030-2039[DOY]133 108Mittlere Änderung [days]9 3⇒ Verzögerung im Regenzeitbeginn⇒ Zunahme der interannuellen VariabilitätDefinition des Regenzeitbeginns(Stern et al. 1981)Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-IFU), Garmisch-PartenkirchenForschungszentrum Karlsruhein der Helmholtz-GemeinschaftResults Regional Climate SimulationsPrecipitationSoil moistureRunoffEvapotranspiration⇒ Nonlinear response of runoff change with respect to precipitation changeInstitute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-IFU), Garmisch-PartenkirchenForschungszentrum Karlsruhein der Helmholtz-GemeinschaftSummary and conclusions• Regional climate modeling required to get spatial information for decision making in risk analysis, water management, etc.• Regional differences: 1) regional climate change differs from global signal2) focus not only on floods but also on droughts⇒ challenge for sustainable water & landscape management• Changes in spatial and temporal distributions (⇒ change in statistics!) • Necessity for new early warning systems• Only possible with GIS …Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-IFU), Garmisch-PartenkirchenForschungszentrum Karlsruhein der Helmholtz-GemeinschaftDanke für die AufmerksamkeitInstitute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-IFU), Garmisch-PartenkirchenForschungszentrum Karlsruhein der Helmholtz-Gemeinschaftσ|| presfut XXSN−=Signal to Noise Verhältnis:SN Niederschlag, Domain1SN für Niederschlag, Verdunstung undAbfluss, Volta BasinTemperatur: SN=3.9 (Domain1)⇒ Klimaänderungssignal liegt fast ausschließlichim Bereich der interannuellen VariabilitätInstitute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-IFU), Garmisch-PartenkirchenForschungszentrum Karlsruhein der Helmholtz-GemeinschaftEvaluation of Regional Climate ModelsDeviation of annual precipitation (%) MM5-Simulation (IMK) vs.DWD-ObservationInstitute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-IFU), Garmisch-PartenkirchenForschungszentrum Karlsruhein der Helmholtz-GemeinschaftRegional Climate Change Rhine Catchment (till Cologne)Evapotranspiration Change [%], 2070-99 vs. 1960-89, ∆=19kmSummer JJAWinter DJFUp to 20% less evapotranspirationInstitute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-IFU), Garmisch-PartenkirchenForschungszentrum Karlsruhein der Helmholtz-GemeinschaftLooking into the Past: Trend Analysis of Precipitation Time SeriesResults of KLIWA initiative• Little changes in sum of yearly precipitation • Trends towards increased winter and spring precipitation & decreased summer precipitation• Changes in frequency distribution: increased probability for heavy precipitationin winter & spring(KLIWA, 2003)Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-IFU), Garmisch-PartenkirchenForschungszentrum Karlsruhein der Helmholtz-GemeinschaftLooking into the Past: Trend Analysis of Runoff Time SeriesResults of KLIWA initiative• No significant trends for increase of magnitude of yearly maximum runoffhowever, if only last 30 years considered: increase • Increased frequency of winter floods in Baden-Württemberg & Bavaria• Change in annual course: increased winter runoff• Little changes in yearly runoff sums(KLIWA, 2003)• But: direct anthropogenic impact difficult to separate from pure climate signal(dams, weirs, changing retention areas)Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-IFU), Garmisch-PartenkirchenForschungszentrum Karlsruhein der Helmholtz-GemeinschaftOutlook: Coupled Regional Climate/Hydrology SimulationsProblems & Challenges: • Is recent climate properly reproduced in climate scenario?• Dynamical downscaling is extremely CPU intensive • No direct comparison to observed runoff -> frequency distributions• Error propagation downstream of catchment cannot be corrected ! Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-IFU), Garmisch-PartenkirchenForschungszentrum Karlsruhein der Helmholtz-GemeinschaftGuinea Coast Region(South of 10°N)Sahel Region(North of 10°N)Mean monthly precipitation [mm]1991-20001991-20002030-20392030-2039

Klimawandel und Auswirkungen auf den Wasserhaushalt

https://publikationen.bibliothek.kit.edu/170066693/3814907

Klimawandel und Auswirkungen auf den Wasserhaushalt

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