Forkel, R.

Knoche, R.

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Helmholtz Climate Initiative Regional Climate Change Topic 9 Regional modeling of the impact of climate change  on air quality in Southern Germany Renate Forkel (renate.forkel@kit.edu), Richard Knoche (hans-richard.knoche@kit.edu) Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, IMK-IFU, Kreuzeckbahnstr. 19, 82467 Garmisch-Partenkirchen www.reklim.de Introduction To investigate the potential effects of climatic change on air quality in Southern Germany, regional scenario simulations with the online coupled 3-dimensional meteorology-chemistry model MCCM were performed for present day and possible future conditions. The simulations were part of the joint project BayForUV (Bavarian Research Cooperation: Increased UV-radiation – Consequences and recommendations). To our knowledge, this was the first time that an online coupled meteorology-chemistry model has been applied for regional climate chemistry simulations over a period of several years. Setup of the regional climate-chemistry simulations Regional climate-chemistry simulations Stratospheric ozone  Chemistry boundary conditions Anthropogenic emissions Initial and  boundary conditions of  meteorological variables Global climate simulations (DKRZ) Green house gases, aerosol based on scenarios  of population, economy, and technology (IPCC) In two consecutive one-way nesting steps, a global ECHAM4 simulation with resolution T42 was downscaled to a resolution of 60 km for Europe and 20 km for Central Europe and the Alpine region.  Evaluation for the summer months 1996-2000 (numbers refer to observations by LfU Bayern)  For the considered scenario, a temperature increase by two degrees was found and lower cloud water and cloud ice in summer. This results in about 10% higher solar radiation and photolysis frequencies. Increased temperatures and solar radiation result in 10-20% higher isoprene emissions. Occurrence of maximum ozone concentrations a-bove 90 ppb (180 µg/m3) increases by a factor of 4 over Southern Germany (from 99 station-events per year   to 384 station-events per year) Publication Forkel, R. and R. Knoche (2006) Regional climate change and its impacts on photooxidant concentrations in southern Germany: Simulations with a coupled regional climate-chemistry model, J. Geophys. Res., 111, No. D12, D12302, doi:10.1029/2005JD006748 (13pp.) Summary of results Effects of regional climate change scenario on photochemistry under the assumption of unchanged anthropogenic emissions and no CO2 impact on isoprene emissions:  Ozone     - Increase of daily ozone maximum by 5 – 10 %     - Higher frequency of threshold exceedances     - Increased occurrence of very high ozone concentrations   HOx, H2O2, HCHO: 15 – 20 % higher values in regions with   high isoprene   HNO3: 10 – 15 % higher values in urban areas   PAN: General decrease, increase by 5% in mountainous regions Results The dynamical downscaling was performed with the online coupled climate-chemistry model MCCM (Grell et al., 2000). Two time slices of about 10 years were selected for the regional simulations: the 90ths of the previous century and the 30ths of this century.  

Regional modeling of the impact of climate change on air quality in Southern Germany

https://publikationen.bibliothek.kit.edu/220087608/3816096

Regional modeling of the impact of climate change on air quality in Southern Germany

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