Alpert, P.

Bassat, K.

Heckl, A.

Khatib, I.

Krichak, S.

Kunin, P.

Kunstmann, H.

Suppan, P.

KITopen

GLOWA-Jordan River ProjectRegional Climate Simulations for the Near East and the Jordan River RegionHarald Kunstmann, Andreas Heckl, Peter SuppanForschungszentrum Karlsruhe, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, GermanyP. Alpert, S. Krichak, P. Kunin, K. BassatTel Aviv University, IsraelI. KhatibPalestinian Academy of ScienceRegional Climate SimulationsObjectives1) Estimation of future temporal and spatial distribution of temperature and precipitation 2) Provision of climate change information to impact WPs in GLOWA-Jordan 3) Estimation of uncertainty bounds of climate change projections Regional Climate SimulationsScientific Challenge1) Changes in the regional climate can differ significantly from the overall trend of global climate change2)  Region has sharp climatic gradients: subhumid mediterranean ↔ arid climate3)  Resolution of global climate models are too coarse for hydrological & biological impact studies⇒ Higher resolution information required that account  for regional and local geographic features (particularly orography, land use and water bodies)Approach:Dynamic downscaling of global climate scenariosRegional Climate SimulationsScientific ChallengeIPCC 4AR, 2007Eastern Mediterranean/Near East: is in between increasing and decreasing dominant large scale patterns of DJFprecipitation changeRegional Climate SimulationsIMK-IFU, TAUIMK-IFU, TAUTAU⇒ Uncertainty boundsEmission scenarios: based on different assumptions on future GHG emissionsRegional Climate SimulationsPopulation Growth     Economic Development Technological ProgressEmission ScenariosGreenhouse Gas ConcentrationsGlobal Climate ModelsGlobal Climate ScenariosDownscaling MethodsRegional Climate ScenariosRegional Climate SimulationsExplicit dynamical downscaling of global climate scenariosRegCM3 (TAU)HadAM3P, ECHAM5, NASA FV: 0.5°(≈50km)MM5 (IMK-IFU)ECHAM4: 54, 18, 6km54x54 km²18x18 km²6x6 km²50x50 km²Regional Climate SimulationsQuality of regional climate simulations: control run vs. long term observation33.0 34.0 35.0 36.0 37.0 38.0Longitude (°E)27.028.029.030.031.032.033.034.035.0Latitude (°N)MaanDorot AmmanRabahDamascusEilonKsaraBeirutAquabaKefar-GiladiBeer-ShevaSabastyahBethlehemTripoliErRabbahBenGurionDuraIrbidSalfeetLarnakaHurghada010025040055070085010001150130014501600Yearly Mean Precipitationin mmSimulated annual mean precipitation(ECHAM4, 18 km², 1961-1990) vs. observed long term annual mean (for selected stations 1961-1990)Regional Climate SimulationsHow accurate does the downscaled Control Run reproduce observed precipitation?Mean Annual Precipitation010020030040050060070080090010000 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000Observed [mm]Simulated [mm]Regional Climate SimulationsFirst exampleECHAM4, B2, 18km, 2070-99 vs. 1961-90Regional Climate SimulationsWhat are the expected changes in temperature?5101520253035Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecTemperature [°C]1960-89 2070-2100Change in annual mean temperatureECHAM4 & MM5, 18 km, B2, 2070-2099 vs 1961-1990, Jordan Area North of Dead Sea  Change in temporal distribution, averaged over domain 2 33.0 34.0 35.0 36.0 37.0 38.0Longitude (°E)27.028.029.030.031.032.033.034.035.0Latitude (°N)Absolute Change of Yearly Mean TemperatureFuture - Past2.52.62.72.82.93.03.13.23.33.43.53.63.73.83.94.0Regional Climate SimulationsWhat are the expected changes in precipitation?33.0 34.0 35.0 36.0 37.0 38.0Longitude (°E)27.028.029.030.031.032.033.034.035.0Latitude (°N)-280-240-200-160-120-80-4004080120Change in mm33.0 34.0 35.0 36.0 37.0 38.0Longitude (°E)27.028.029.030.031.032.033.034.035.0Latitude (°N)-50 %-40 %-30 %-20 %-10 %0 %10 %20 %Absolute change in [mm] Relative Change in [%] ECHAM4 & MM5, 18 km, B2, 2070-2099 vs 1961-1990 Regional Climate SimulationsHow does the temporal distribution of precipitation change?ECHAM4 & MM5, 18 km, B2, Jordan Area North of Dead Sea Strongly decreased winter, slightly increased absolute late spring precipitation05101520253035Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec10-day precipitation sum1960-89 2070-2099Regional Climate SimulationsHow does seasonal precipitation change depend on the region?-40-30-20-1001020Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecMonthChange [mm]Area A Area B Area C Area D33.0 34.0 35.0 36.0 37.0Longitude (°E)30.031.032.033.034.035.0Latitude(°N)ABCDFor all subregions: Decreased winter, increased spring precipitationRegional Climate SimulationsWhat do we expect from the High Resolution Simulations with 6 km?Intermediate results of 6 km runs: mean 1961-1975 54km 18 km 6 km… more detailed spatial information: land-sea & orography dependent features Domain 2Domain 1 Domain 333.0 34.0 35.0 36.0 37.0Longitude (°E)30.031.032.033.034.0Latitude (°N)MaanDorot AmmanRabahDamascusEilonKsaraBeirutKefar-GiladiBeer-ShevaSabastyahBethlehemTripoliErRabbahBenGurionDuraIrbidSalfeet33.0 34.0 35.0 36.0 37.0Longitude (°E)MaanDorot AmmanRabahDamascusEilonKsaraBeirutKefar-GiladiBeer-ShevaSabastyahBethlehemTripoliErRabbahBenGurionDuraIrbidSalfeet33.0 34.0 35.0 36.0 37.0Longitude (°E)30.031.032.033.034.0Latitude (°N)MaanDorot AmmanRabahDamascusEilonKsaraBeirutKefar-GiladiBeer-ShevaSabastyahBethlehemTripoliErRabbahBenGurionDuraIrbidSalfeet0400800120016002000Yearly Mean Precipitation 1961-1975Regional Climate SimulationsStatus conference 2006 (Esslingen): necessity of transient runs identified1. Requested by impact WPs2. Problem of comparing time slices: long term trend vs. short term trend0200400600800100012001960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100Annual Precipitation [mm]CT B2CT B2Domain ADomain B ?750 mmmean660 mmmeanfallingrisingRegional Climate SimulationsFrom time slice comparison towards transient regional climate runs• ECHAM4, A2, 1961-2050, 54 km ⇒ IMK-IFU• ECHAM5, A1B, 1961-2050, 0.5° (≈ 50km) ⇒ TAU• Joint comparison period: 2005-2035 vs. 1961-90Regional Climate SimulationsFrom time slice comparison towards transient regional climate runs0200400600800100012001960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Annual Precipitation [mm]CT A2PrecipitationRegional Climate SimulationsSecond exampleECHAM4, B2, 54km, 1961-2050 transientClimate change focus: 2005-35 vs. 1961-90Regional Climate SimulationsFirst results of transient regional climate runsChange (°K)A2 (2005-2035)CT (1961-1990)1014182233.0 34.0 35.0 36.0 37.0Longitude (°E)30.031.032.033.034.0Latitude (°N)33.0 34.0 35.0 36.0 37.0Longitude (°E)33.0 34.0 35.0 36.0 37.0Longitude (°E)30.031.032.033.034.0Latitude (°N)Yearly Mean Temperature00.511.522.5Regional Climate SimulationsFirst results of transient regional climate runsChange [mm]A2 (2005-2035)CT (1961-1990)0400800120016002000-30-20-10010203040506070809010033.0 34.0 35.0 36.0 37.0Longitude (°E)30.031.032.033.034.0Latitude (°N)33.0 34.0 35.0 36.0 37.0Longitude (°E)33.0 34.0 35.0 36.0 37.0Longitude (°E)30.031.032.033.034.0Latitude (°N)Yearly Mean PrecipitationRegional Climate SimulationsFirst results of transient regional climate runsChange [mm]A2 (2005-2035)CT (1961-1990)080160240-30-20-10010203040506070809010033.0 34.0 35.0 36.0 37.0Longitude (°E)30.031.032.033.034.0Latitude (°N)33.0 34.0 35.0 36.0 37.0Longitude (°E)33.0 34.0 35.0 36.0 37.0Longitude (°E)30.031.032.033.034.0Latitude (°N)Mean Precipitation DJFRegional Climate SimulationsFirst results of transient regional climate runs-20-10010203040Jan Feb Mrz Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec DJF MAM JJA SON YearChange in Annual Precipitation [mm]Area A Area B Area C Area DWetter winters & springsDryer summers and autumns2005-35 minus 1961-90, ECHAM4 + MM5, 54km33.0 34.0 35.0 36.0 37.0Longitude (°E)30.031.032.033.034.035.0Latitude(°N)ABCDRegional Climate SimulationsFirst results of transient regional climate runs00.511.522.53Jan Feb Mrz Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec DJF MAM JJA SON YearChange in Temperature [°K]Area A Area B Area C Area D2005-35 minus 1961-90, ECHAM4 + MM5, 54km33.0 34.0 35.0 36.0 37.0Longitude (°E)30.031.032.033.034.035.0Latitude(°N)ABCDTemperature increases of up to 2.5 °C in all Jordan River subregionsRegional Climate SimulationsFirst results of transient regional climate runs33.0 34.0 35.0 36.0 37.0Longitude (°E)30.031.032.033.034.035.0Latitude(°N)ABCDPrecipitation intensities:1961-1990 ⇒ 1991-2020 Decrease1991-2020 ⇒ 2021-2040 IncreaseECHAM4 + MM5, A2, 54km0123450 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90[mm/day][days/year]1961-1990 1991-2020 2021-2050012345670 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90[mm/day][days/year]1961-1990 1991-2020 2021-2050Regional Climate SimulationsFirst results of transient regional climate runsECHAM4 + MM5, A2, 54km33.0 34.0 35.0 36.0 37.0Longitude (°E)30.031.032.033.034.035.0Latitude(°N)ABCDLong term: Increase of precipitation intensitiesRegional Climate SimulationsECHAM5 transient vs. ECHAM4 transientMean Annual PrecipitationMean Annual Precipitation010020030040050060070080090010000 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000Observed [mm]Simulated [mm]Mean Annual Precipitation010020030040050060070080090010000 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000Observed [mm]Simulated [mm]ECHAM4-MM5, ∆x=18km ECHAM5-RegCM, ∆x=0.5°Control runs 1961-90 vs. long term observation at 41 stations in the Near EastRegional Climate SimulationsECHAM5 transient vs. ECHAM4 transientDJF PrecipitationDJF0501001502002503003504000 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400Observed [mm]Simulated [mm]DJF0501001502002503003504000 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400Observed [mm]Simulated [mm]ECHAM4-MM5, ∆x=18km ECHAM5-RegCM, ∆x=0.5°Control runs 1961-90 vs. long term observation at 41 stations in the Near EastTendency towards underestimation of high precipitation regions Regional Climate SimulationsDifferences ECHAM4 A2 transient vs. ECHAM5 A1B transientECHAM4-MM5, ∆x=54km ECHAM5-RegCM, ∆x=0.5°Change DJF Precipitation 2005-35 vs. 1960-90x 90⇒ [mm]Differences between model projections: increases vs. decreases for DJF precipitationRegional Climate SimulationsDifferences ECHAM4 A2 transient vs. ECHAM5 A1B transientECHAM4-MM5, ∆x=54km⇒ Increase up to 40mmECHAM5-RegCM, ∆x=0.5°⇒ +/- 20mm/yearChange Mean Annual Precipitation 2005-35 vs. 1960-90Different regional scenarios do not allow conclusion about trend for future mean annual precipitationRegional Climate SimulationsSummary: Available Regional Climate Simulations Global Model Scenario Regional ModeResolution Time Slice AvailabilityECHAM4 CT MM5 54km 1961-90 IMK-IFUECHAM4 CT MM5 18km 1961-90 IMK-IFUECHAM4 CT MM5 6km 1961-75 IMK-IFUECHAM4 B2 MM5 54km 2070-99 IMK-IFUECHAM4 B2 MM5 18km 2070-99 IMK-IFUECHAM4 B2 MM5 6km 2070-85 IMK-IFU end of 2007ECHAM4 CT+A2 MM5 54km 1961-2050 IMK-IFUECHAM4 CT+A2 MM5 18km 1961-2050 IMK-IFU end of 2007HadAM3P CT RegCM3 50km 1961-90 TAUHadAM3P A2 RegCM3 50km 2071-2100 TAUHadAM3P B2 RegCM3 50km 2071-2100 TAUNASA FV GCM CT RegCM3 50km 1961-90 TAUNASA FV GCM A2 RegCM3 50km 2071-2100 TAUECHAM5 CT+A1B RegCM3 50km 1960-2050 TAUECHAM4 CT STAR 1958-1996 PALASTECHAM4 A1B STAR 2007-2040 PALASTRegional Climate SimulationsSummary & Conclusions• Increase of temperatures in all scenarios• Long term projections of precipitation differ from medium term projections:1) precipitation & intensity increase till 2035 for pessimistic GHG emission scenario A2 (transient)2) precipitation & intensity decrease till 2100 for optimistic GHG emission scenario B2 (time slice)• Diverse results from transient ECHAM4-MM5-A2 and ECHAM5-RegCM-A1BPrecipitation increase 40mm/year vs. +/- 20 mm/year⇒ Projections for future precipitation: extremely sensitive to chosen1) emission scenario2) future time period vs. control time period3) global & regional climate model • Identified research needs for phase III   ⇒ continuation of transient simulations till 2100⇒ bias correction techniques: essential for use of regional climate scenarios in impact WPsThank you for your attentionRegional Climate SimulationsEastern Mediterranean/Near East: is in between increasing and decreasing dominant large scale changing areas

Regional climate simulations for the Near East and the Jordan River Region

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Regional climate simulations for the Near East and the Jordan River Region

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