Bleher, E.

Bliefernicht, J.

Kunstmann, H.

Laux, P.

Waongo, M.

KITopen

Formatvorlage des Untertitelmasters durch Klicken bearbeiten 21-Jun-12 1 Titelmasterformat durch Klicken bearbeiten Seasonal climate and regional weather forecasts  within the West African Science Service Centre on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use   presented by J. Bliefernicht1, H. Kunstmann1,2,  P. Laux2, M. Waongo1 and E. Bleher2  PRESAO, Ouagadougou, 22 May 2012   1: University of Augsburg, Chair for Regional Climate and Hydrology  2: Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research  in close cooperation with University Bonn,  Federal University of Technology Akure, German Climate Computing Centre  and further national and international institutions     Formatvorlage des Untertitelmasters durch Klicken bearbeiten 21-Jun-12 2 Titelmasterformat durch Klicken bearbeiten 1. Short overview about the current status of the West African Science Service Centre on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use (WASCAL)   2. Current and future research activities performed in the field of seasonal climate forecasts within the core research program of WASCAL   Further objective of this presentation:     Harmonization and iteration of our activities with PRESAO community   To receive feedbacks from the community to incorporate their knowledge and experiences for the development of user-specific forecasting techniques   Outline and Objective  Formatvorlage des Untertitelmasters durch Klicken bearbeiten 21-Jun-12 3 Titelmasterformat durch Klicken bearbeiten • WASCAL is not a classical research project (which will end in four years)  • Science Service Centre will be established/build in Ouagadougou  • To answer questions in the field of climate change and adapted land use  • Develop adaptation measures to improve the resilience of the socio-ecological system    • International and transboundary: ten West African countries are involved in this project (Burkina Faso, Cote d‘Ivoire, Mali, Ghana, Benin, Togo, Nigeria, Gambia, Niger, Senegal)    • Integrated approach and assessment; a number of disciplines (climatologists, hydrologists, soil scientists, agronomist, biologists, social scientists, … ) are involved in this project   WASCAL  Formatvorlage des Untertitelmasters durch Klicken bearbeiten 21-Jun-12 4 Titelmasterformat durch Klicken bearbeiten Preparatory phase: July 2010 - July 2012  1. Development of the research concept & scientific agenda  2. Initiate first activities within the Core Research Program     3. Initiate the Graduate Research Program  Main phase: August 2012 – December 2015 (hopefully!) OBSERVATION NETWORK   &  COMPETENCE CENTRE CORE   RESEARCH  PROGRAM GRADUATE    RESEARCH  SCHOOLS Main Tasks in WASCAL / Time Schedule Formatvorlage des Untertitelmasters durch Klicken bearbeiten 21-Jun-12 5 Titelmasterformat durch Klicken bearbeiten  Objective   Extension and update of current observation networks in WASCAL countries for various disciplines e.g.:  • Climate observation network • Hydrological observation network • Biodiversity network    Time schedule   Observation network will start once WASCAL has gained legal status  The current plan is that the main activities will start in August 2012.  Climate observation network is scheduled for January 2013 Task 1: Observation Network Formatvorlage des Untertitelmasters durch Klicken bearbeiten 21-Jun-12 6 Titelmasterformat durch Klicken bearbeiten Proposed activities  as result of the workshop in August 2010, Accra, Ghana and the questionnaire  A. Improvement of the current network: Upgrade and extension  B. Upgrade and extension of technical infrastructure of meteorological services  C. Training program for staff e.g. t international institutions (AGRYHMET, ASECNA/EAMAC)  Details of all activities (A,B,C) will be jointly iterated with the national and international meteorological services    kick off hopefully in the beginning  of 2013.   Organisation  • organized by the climate group of the Competence Centre • KIT/University of Augsburg  is co-initiating and co-organising this activity but only for the first 1.5 years.   Task 1: Climate Observation Network Formatvorlage des Untertitelmasters durch Klicken bearbeiten 21-Jun-12 7 Titelmasterformat durch Klicken bearbeiten  Competence Centre = Science Service Centre    International institute will be established in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso.    Interim building   • close to the international university 2ie • on-going renovation.   Six departments will be hosted at th  Compe ence Centre:   • Climate, hydrology , land management (remote sensing), agro-economy, biology and data management  • call for application: researchers can apply for positions in the competence centre  Task 1: Competence Centre Formatvorlage des Untertitelmasters durch Klicken bearbeiten 21-Jun-12 8 Titelmasterformat durch Klicken bearbeiten Task 2: Core Research Program Formatvorlage des Untertitelmasters durch Klicken bearbeiten 21-Jun-12 9 Titelmasterformat durch Klicken bearbeiten Regional Climate Modeling System Development Interactions between Land Surface Change and Regional Climate Seasonal Climate Forecast and Regional Weather Prediction Research Cluster “Climate and Weather” mostly techniques in the field of downscaling are developed and enhanced   Formatvorlage des Untertitelmasters durch Klicken bearbeiten 21-Jun-12 10 Titelmasterformat durch Klicken bearbeiten Motivation of Downscaling in Seasonal Forecasting  as formulated by D. S. Wilks (2001):    “… Comparison of past seasonal forecasts with corresponding observed seasonal outcomes has demonstrated real and potentially useful information content [….] but the temporally aggregated nature of the forecast quantities may be difficult for some decision makers to incorporate into their operations. In particula , many models of agricultural, hydrological, and other weather- and climate-sensitive managed systems operate on a daily time step …”   Major problem: low spatiotemporal resolution of seasonal forecasts  Solution:  Downscaling = transfer of the coarse global information     to a finer spatio-temporal resolution  Formatvorlage des Untertitelmasters durch Klicken bearbeiten 21-Jun-12 11 Titelmasterformat durch Klicken bearbeiten Downscaling Approaches    Two groups of downscaling techniques (Zorita and von Storch, 1997):   A: Statistical (empirical) downscaling e.g.    weather generators  classification techniques  conditional approaches   B: Dynamical (process-based) downscaling   limited area models / regional climate models    Combination  of both techniques  Formatvorlage des Untertitelmasters durch Klicken bearbeiten 21-Jun-12 12 Titelmasterformat durch Klicken bearbeiten Seasonal Climate Forecast and Regional Weather Prediction     (2) Adaptation of techniques to needs of national and international weather, hydrological and agricultural services  to improve the existing forecast system e.g. harmonization of available forecast information (1) Advancement and development of forecasting techniques:    for agricultural and hydrological relevant variables such as the onset of the rainy season  or an optimal window for planting  for variables that are important for the prediction of droughts and floods such as the rainfall amount in the next three months or the areal precipitation for a river basin  Formatvorlage des Untertitelmasters durch Klicken bearbeiten 21-Jun-12 13 Titelmasterformat durch Klicken bearbeiten Techniques for agricultural relevant variables  Topic: Simulation of annual yields for a given crop species   Test case: annual maize yield for Burkina Faso  Crop model: General Large Area Crop Model (GLAM); process-based approach    Impact of planting dates on maize yield  Study region and data    Burkina Faso  Observed crop yield for maize on province level provided by AGRHYMET  Test period: 2000 - 2010     daily observed gridded precipitation from surface stations  Split-sampling: validation period 2008 - 2010   Formatvorlage des Untertitelmasters durch Klicken bearbeiten 21-Jun-12 14 Titelmasterformat durch Klicken bearbeiten Techniques for agricultural relevant variables  Formatvorlage des Untertitelmasters durch Klicken bearbeiten 21-Jun-12 15 Titelmasterformat durch Klicken bearbeiten Seasonal Climate Forecast and Regional Weather Prediction    (3) Seasonal forecasts are also characterized by high uncertainties   Development of techniques for describing the uncertainty and express the forecasts as probabilities   develop strategies in decision making situations (no drought/drought) to optimize the benefit for a certain user Formatvorlage des Untertitelmasters durch Klicken bearbeiten 21-Jun-12 17 Titelmasterformat durch Klicken bearbeiten  17 … that are sensitive for meteorological information   Case A: Warning for extremes e.g. drought or floods  Decision akers must decide between two actions:    Give an alarm for protective action to save people and goods – costs    No alarm: no protective action – no costs  Case B: Fallowing/planting problem  (see Brown et al., 1986)   Farmers must decide between two actions:    Action A: plant a crop – costs   Action B: no planting, let the land lie fallow – no costs    Two Examples of Decision Making Situations Formatvorlage des Untertitelmasters durch Klicken bearbeiten 21-Jun-12 18 Titelmasterformat durch Klicken bearbeiten  18 Outcomes of a Warning System for Droughts Formatvorlage des Untertitelmasters durch Klicken bearbeiten 21-Jun-12 19 Titelmasterformat durch Klicken bearbeiten    C = costs for an alarm due to protectiv  action  L = loss of a miss       Minimise total expense E  to maximise benefit  (optimum strategy)   Calculation of total expense E (e.g. Wilks, 2006):      LCbaE ⋅++= )(a = number of hits b = number of  false alarms c = number of misses Cost-Benefit Analysis e.g. for a Drought Warning System Formatvorlage des Untertitelmasters durch Klicken bearbeiten 21-Jun-12 20 Titelmasterformat durch Klicken bearbeiten Summary     WASCAL is still in the preparatory phase: the main phase will start hopefully in August 2012   Activities within the framework of observation network will start in the main phase, but the exact time schedule is still uncertain  Research activities in field of seasonal climate forecasts focus on   Forecasting techniques for agricultural and hydrological relevant variables and indices of hydro-meteorological extremes     Adapted to needs of national and international weather, hydrological and agricultural services  We need here your suggestions, recommendations to improve existing forecasting systems Current status of WASCAL  Formatvorlage des Untertitelmasters durch Klicken bearbeiten 21-Jun-12 21 Titelmasterformat durch Klicken bearbeiten Acknowledgements  Prof. Yerome Omotosho, Federal University of Technology Akure    Mr. Diallo, ACMAD   Dr. Abdoulaye Sarr,  Met. Service, Senegal    Dr. Abdourahamane Konare, Universite de Cocody, Cote d‘Ivoire   Dr. Barry Boubacar, Volta Basin Authority, Burkina Faso   Dr. Benjamin Lamptey, Regional Maritime University 

Seasonal climate and regional weather forecasts within the West African science service centre on climate change and adapted land use

https://publikationen.bibliothek.kit.edu/230087660/3816104

Seasonal climate and regional weather forecasts within the West African science service centre on climate change and adapted land use

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