Laux, P.

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 LUCCi Climate Data:  Availability, Reliability, Usage   Dr. Patrick Laux and LUCCi colleagues   Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT)  Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research Department of Atmospheric Environmental Research (IMK-IFU)  GCMs Atmosphere & Ocean Δx ≈ 300…100km RCMs Δx ≈ 50…10km P, T, RH, u, v … Long-term regional climate projections Population Growth, Economic Development & Technological Progress Emission Scenarios Greenhouse Gas Concentrations Global Climate Models Global Climate Scenarios Downscaling Methods Regional Climate Scenarios LUCCi: Downscaling setup • Domain 1 – horizontal: 99 x 99 grid points with a resolution of 45 km – vertical: 50 layers up to 50 hPa – time step: 180 s • Domain 2 – horizontal: 142 x 145 grid points with a resolution of 15 km – vertical: 50 layers up to 50 hPa – time step: 120 s • Domain 3 – horizontal: 66 x 75 grid points with a resolution of 5 km – vertical: 50 layers up to 5000 Pa – time step: 30 s  D01 D02 D03 2001-2030 2021-2050 A1b B1 VGTB: Expected rainfall change [mm/d] [mm/d] [mm/d] [mm/d] Spatially detailed information about  expected climate  P, T, RH, wind speed (~ 200 variables available)  2001-2030 2021-2050 A1b B1 [°C] [°C] [°C] [°C] VGTB: Expected temperature change Greatest CC signal expected for A1b  and 2021-2050 Climate data products (~ 25 TB of raw data, 6(1) h resolution): • Downscaled ERA40 Reanalysis (WRF-ERA40) for the period 1971-2000 • Downscaled ECHAM5 control run (WRF-EH5-CTRL) for 1971-2000  • Downscaled ECHAM5 A1B future projections (WRF-EH5-A1B) for 2001-2050 • Downscaled ECHAM5 B1 future projection (WRF-EH5-B1) 2001-2050   How to obtain: • RBIS database (Jena): Common surface variables as time series (no fields) at location of observation stations (few MB of surface variables): http://www.lucci-vietnam.info/database • Fields (netcdf, user specific format) can be obtained on request (ask Jena group): e.g. cluster@jupiter.geogr.uni-jena.de:~/lucci/ (few GB of surface variables) • Full set of data at KIT/IMK-IFU (Tape archive)    Availability & access of climate data  Performance gain of downscaling  D2: Seasonality not well captured, high deviations from observations  D3: Improved seasonality, acceptable deviations Rainfall [mm] Rainfall [mm] D2 @ 15 km D3 @ 5 km    • Heat waves • etc. •Adapt cropping locations  •Crops/varieties •Planting date adaptations (long-term) •Hydropower •Wind energy •Water balance estimation  •Flood frequencies  •Construction of dams, etc. Hydrology Energy Tourism Agric Potential applications of climate data Agriculture: Erosive Rains Expected changes in number of harmful rain events (precip > 20 mm) during 2001-2030 (A1b) Occurrence probabilities on seasonsal (monthly) basis could help to reduce soil erosion or damage of crops/crop failures in future   Hydrology: River discharge D2 (15 km) D3 (5 km) Cumulated Discharge Daily Discharge Take Home • WRF long-term climate simulations (T, P, Rad, RH, etc.) finished and ready to be used for impact studies: Data for model calibration and future climate projections available • WRF@D3 shows best performance if compared to local observation data:  Recommended to be used for CC impact studies in the VGTB • Specific tailor-made information (e.g. agricultural risk maps) can be delivered on request (Email me: patrick.laux@kit.edu)  Ongoing work • Statistical Downscaling for uncertainty estimation of selected variables (T, P, etc.) coming from other GCMs and additional emission scenarios (next 6-12 months) • Impacts of land use change on meteorological surface variables using updated LU maps in the climate simulations (PhD thesis of Nguyen Phuong, LUCCi) • Identification of optimized cultivation strategies (rice, cash crop) and sustainable water management strategies in the VGTB river basin using coupled WaSim - Gams simulations (PhD thesis Dang Thinh, DAAD scholar)    … beyond LUCCi • Improved seasonal climate predictions to assist farmers with cropping strategies (planting date, choice of crops/varieties, locations)  “more crop per drop” 

LUCCi climate data: Availability, reliability, usage

https://publikationen.bibliothek.kit.edu/230097862/3816666

LUCCi climate data: Availability, reliability, usage

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