Lund, H.

Mathiesen, B.V.

Nørgård, Per Bromand

In 2006, the Danish Society of Engineers developed a visionary plan for the Danish energy system in 2030. The paper presents and qualifies selected part of the analyses, illustrating the transport sectors potential to contribute to the flexibility in the power sector, necessary for large-scale integration of renewable energy in the power system – in specific wind power. In the plan, 20 % of the road transport is based on electricity and 20 % on bio- fuels. This, together with other initiatives allows for up to 55-60 % wind power penetration in the power system. A fleet of 0.5 mio electrical vehicles in Denmark in 2030 connected to the grid 50 % of the time represents an aggregated flexible power capacity of 1- 1.5 GW and an energy capacity of 10-150 GWh.In 2006, the Danish Society of Engineers developed a visionary plan for the Danish energy system in 2030. The paper presents and qualifies selected part of the analyses, illustrating the transport sectors potential to contribute to the flexibility in the power sector, necessary for large-scale integration of renewable energy in the power system – in specific wind power. In the plan, 20 % of the road transport is based on electricity and 20 % on bio- fuels. This, together with other initiatives allows for up to 55-60 % wind power penetration in the power system. A fleet of 0.5 mio electrical vehicles in Denmark in 2030 connected to the grid 50 % of the time represents an aggregated flexible power capacity of 1- 1.5 GW and an energy capacity of 10-150 GWh

Nørgaard, Per

Lund, Henrik

Mathiesen, Brian Vad

    Aalborg UniversitetThe transport sectors potential contribution to the flexibility in the power sectorrequired by large-scale wind power integrationNørgaard, Per; Lund, Henrik; Mathiesen, Brian VadPublished in:Proceedings Nordic Wind Power ConferencePublication date:2007Document VersionPublisher's PDF, also known as Version of recordLink to publication from Aalborg UniversityCitation for published version (APA):Nørgaard, P., Lund, H., & Mathiesen, B. V. (2007). The transport sectors potential contribution to the flexibility inthe power sector required by large-scale wind power integration. In N. Cutululis, & P. Sørensen (Eds.),Proceedings Nordic Wind Power Conference Danmarks Tekniske Universitet, Risø Nationallaboratoriet forBæredygtig Energi.General rightsCopyright and moral rights for the publications made accessible in the public portal are retained by the authors and/or other copyright ownersand it is a condition of accessing publications that users recognise and abide by the legal requirements associated with these rights.            ? Users may download and print one copy of any publication from the public portal for the purpose of private study or research.            ? You may not further distribute the material or use it for any profit-making activity or commercial gain            ? You may freely distribute the URL identifying the publication in the public portal ?Take down policyIf you believe that this document breaches copyright please contact us at vbn@aub.aau.dk providing details, and we will remove access tothe work immediately and investigate your claim.Downloaded from vbn.aau.dk on: April 30, 2017The transport sectors potential contribution to the flexibility in the power sector required by large-scale wind power integration Per Nørgaard1*), H. Lund2), B. V. Mathiesen2)  1) Risø DTU, P.O. Box 49, DK-4000 Roskilde, Denmark *)phone +45 4677 5068, e-mail per.norgaard@risoe.dk  2)Aalborg University, Aalborg, Denmark  Abstract — In 2006, the Danish Society of Engineers developed a visionary plan for the Danish energy system in 2030. The paper presents and qualifies selected part of the analyses, illustrating the transport sectors potential to contribute to the flexibility in the power sector, necessary for large-scale integration of renewable energy in the power system – in specific wind power. In the plan, 20 % of the road transport is based on electricity and 20 % on bio-fuels. This, together with other initiatives allows for up to 55-60 % wind power penetration in the power system. A fleet of 0.5 mio electrical vehicles in Denmark in 2030 connected to the grid 50 % of the time represents an aggregated flexible power capacity of 1-1.5 GW and an energy capacity of 10-150 GWh. Index Terms — Energy system, energy plan, electrical transport, renewable energy, wind energy, sustainable development. 1. INTRODUCTION The IDA Energy Plan 2030i – a visionary energy plan for the Danish energy system – was developed as part of The Danish Society of Engineers’ (IDA) project ‘Energy Year 2006’ – a project involving more than 1600 professionals at 40 workshops during 2006 (Ref [1], [2], [3]). The aim of the IDA Energy Plan 2030 was threefold: • to maintain the security of energy supply; • to reduce the CO2-emission; and • to extend the energy technology business opportunities. The analysis results indicate that the Danish society can meet all three targets even with a positive economic result (Figure 1, Figure 2, Figure 3, Figure 4). The targets can however only be met by long-term investments in energy savings, energy efficiencies and new energy technologies – investments that are paid back over time. The IDA-results are compared to a ‘business-as-usual’ 2030 reference scenario based on a scenario developed by the Danish Energy Authory (Ref [5]). The Danish energy system has been modelled and analysed using the computer model for energy system analysis, EnergyPLANii, developed at Aalborg University, Denmark (Ref [9]). The energy system has been analysed on hourly basis for power and energy balance analyses, however with no indication of potential distribution bottlenecks. The robustness of the results has been tested by sensitivity analyses on the investment costs (including the discount rate used) and the energy market prices. The robustness of the recommendations for the system development has been tested by a projection of the system development to 100 % renewable energy based (in year 2050) 1.1. CO2 emission One of the aims of the IDA study was to identify solutions to reduce the energy sectors CO2 emission by 50 %, without reducing the service levels. All means in all sectors were investigated, evaluated and utilised – including increasing the energy efficiency, decreasing the energy needs and shifting towards renewable energy resources. The recommended Figure 1: The primary energy supply for the Danish energy system in 2004, for the 2030 reference scenario and for the IDA 2030 scenario. (Source: Ref [1]) Figure 2: The CO2 emission from the Danish energy sector in 1990 (the Kyoto reference year), for the 2030 reference scenario and for the 2030 IDA scenario. (Source: Ref [1]) NORDIC WIND POWER CONFERENCE, NWPC’2007, 1-2 NOVEMBER 2007, ROSKILDE, DENMARK 2  solution requires a large share of wind power in the power system, which again requires a high degree of flexibility in the power system in order to be able to optimise the system operation and the wind power integration. Several means were introduced to provide the necessary flexibility – including flexible bio-refineries producing bio fuels and the flexible power buffering provided by electrical vehicles, while connected to the grid. In the IDA Energy Plan 2030, 20 % of the energy for road transport is based on electricity and 20 % is based on bio-fuels. This, together with other initiatives to increase the flexibility in the power system, allows for up to 55-60 % of the electricity consumption covered by wind power. The present paper qualifies these numbers. The batteries in the electrical driven vehicles act as intelligent electrical buffers, whenever connected to the grid – charging the batteries when abundant generation capacity in the power system (and thus low electricity prices), and supplying power and other system services to the power system when needed by the system (expressed by high market prices). The vehicles intelligent controllers ensure that the vehicles are able to provide the requested transport work when needed by the user – specified by the user when connecting the vehicle to the grid in terms of required operating distance at specified time. The bio-fuels for the transport sector are produced at flexible, multi-product bio-refineries, e.g. producing a mix of syngas, transport fuels, power plant fuels, power, heat (for district heating), animal feed, fertilization, fibre materials and other chemical products – with a flexibility of adjusting the actual product mix depending on the varying market prices. These multi-product plants are able to switch between e.g. production of power and production of liquid fuels (based on the syngas) for the transport sector. 2. SUSTAINABLE TRANSPORT DEVELOPMENT In the IDA Energy Plan, a wide range of measures towards a sustainable transport development has been proposed and analysed. The measures are different from other suggestions related to transport policy because the plan involves a wide range of technologies and includes both the demand and supply side. Also, it differs from other analyses as its measures have been analysed both in the context of the surrounding energy system and in relation to economics.  The following proposals have been used in the analysis as part of the transport theme for Denmark: • Passenger transport work (person km) in 2030 in vehicles, trains and bicycles is stabilised at the 2004 level. • The rate of increase in passenger air transport is limited to 30 % (instead of 50 %) in the period from 2004 to 2030. • 20 % of the passenger road transport is transferred to trains, ships and bicycles in 2030: • 5 % transport of goods (ton km) transferred from roads to trains and 5 % to ships • 5 % passenger transport is transferred to trains and 5 % to bicycles. • 30 % more energy efficiency in the transport sector compared to the reference situation in 2030 with stable passenger transport at the 2004 level and with a lower increase in air transport. • 20 % biofuels and 20 % battery electric vehicles in road transport in 2030. Some of the results of the analysis are shown in Table 1 and in Figure 5. 2.1. Electrical vehicles Although electrical vehicles have been on the market for Figure 3: The estimated business potential in the Danish energy sector in 2004 and for the 2030 IDA scenario. (Source: Ref [1]) Figure 4: The estimated additional economic cost for the 2030 reference scenario and for the 2030 IDA scenario. (Source: Ref [1]) Reduction in CO2 emissions, mill. ton0,0 0,5 1,0 1,5 2,0 2,5 3,0BioethanolEfficient vehiclesBEVPublic transportLimited aviation incr.Stable pass. transportIDA 2030Ref 2030Figure 5: The estimated CO2 emission reduction for the 2030 reference scenario and the 2030 IDA scenario. (Source: Ref [7]) NORDIC WIND POWER CONFERENCE, NWPC’2007, 1-2 NOVEMBER 2007, ROSKILDE, DENMARK 3  decades, they have never real materialised. The weak part has been the lack of sufficiently robust, energy compact and cheap batteries (Ref [10]). However, the recent and the expected development in battery technology, power electronic and electrical drives in terms of robustness, energy efficiency, energy density, reliability, long life and low cost provides new potentials for the deployment of electrical driven vehicles. The state-of-the-art capacities of the Lithium-based battery types are 0.2 kWh/kg. The Lithium-type batteries allows extended dynamic operation with many, rapid and heavy charging/discharging cycles, while preserving their high energy efficiency and long lifetime. Electrical vehicles typical have an energy consumption of 0.15 kWh/km (compared to typically 0.5 kWh/km for traditional, efficient internal combustion engine based vehicles and 0.4 kWh/km for hybrid vehicles). A battery package of 200 kg with an energy capacity of 40 kWh corresponds thus to a driving range of up to 250 km. The deployment of electrical driven vehicles is supported by the potential step-by-step development from the presently introduced ‘hybrid vehicle concept’ (already mass-produced by several of the large car manufactures) over the so called ‘plug-in hybrid’ to the dedicated electrical vehicles. The hybrid concept consists of a combination of an internal combustion engine (ICE), an electrical motor/generator and a battery, and provides only increased fuel efficiency by a combination of picking-up and utilising the braking energy and optimising the operation of the ICE. The plug-in concept has typically a larger battery capacity, can drive solely on the electrical drive for short distances and has the option of charging the battery from the grid – while parked and connected to the grid. The dedicated electrical vehicle concept has a pure electrical drive train, but the operation range may be extended by an on-board fuel based battery charger – e.g. based on fuel cell technology. The ultimate electrical vehicle concept is the so called ‘vehicle-to-grid’ (V2G), enabling the power between the grid and the battery to flow in both directions, and with the potential through intelligent control of the inverter for the vehicle to provide system services to the power grid. The concept requires a fully controllable bi-directional inverter between the grid and the battery, an possibility for on-line power trading with the power distribution company while connected to the grid and an intelligent controller that can optimise both the system services and the battery charging. The system services provided by the grid connected electrical vehicles may contribute to the flexibility in the power system needed for the optimisation of large-scale wind power integration. The concept is not expected to materialise within the first 5-10 years, but the concept forms the basis for the analyses of the 2030-potential presented in the present paper. In addition, the development of electrical drive platforms for vehicles is further pushed by their potentials for reducing the transport sectors dependency of fossil fuels, CO2-emission (Table 2), local air pollution and noise emission, as well as their potentials for ‘smart’ drives with the electrical engines integrated in the wheels, providing true all-wheels-drive, turning support etc. 2.2. The Danish transport sector The transport sector in Denmark (as well as in EU) is 98 % (2006) dependant on fossil oil products (gasoline and diesel). The annual grow in number of person vehicles in Denmark is 3-5 %, with 2 mio in 2006, in average driving 15-20 000 km annually and in average in use less than 90 % of the time. A fleet of 0.5 mio electrical vehicles (corresponding to 20 % of the expected vehicles in 2030 with the present grow rate), each having a battery capacity of 50 kWh and a 5 kW inverter, and in average connected to the grid in 50 % of the time represents a power capacity of 1.2 GW and an energy capacity of 12 GWh – corresponding to the maximum power generation from 250 × 5 MW wind turbines in 10 hours. 50 kWh battery capacity is expected to be realistic for vehicles within the next 10 years. The price and size of 5 kW inverters expects to be pressed by the competition on the expected increasing PV market, also within the next 10 years. The development of a market for trading of large number of small-scale system services is driven by the household’s potentials for power demand response and other power system services, and is also expected to materialise within the next 10 years. The implementation of the necessary infrastructure for grid connection of the vehicles is highly dependent of standardisation of power level, communication between grid and vehicle, and the control of the power flow, of registration of the power trading and of the development power system TWh/year Reference 2030 IDA 2030 JP4 (for aviation) 13,25 11,63 Diesel 27,50 18,82 Petrol 28,46 6,33 Biomass for ethanol  7,98 Electricity 0,24 2,10 Sum 69,45 46,85 Table 1: The estimated fuel consumption for the transport work in Denmark. (Source: Ref [7])  CO2/km Reference Standard gasoline car 160 g Danish Transport Agency Hybrid car 100 g Toyota Electrical car 70 g Danish Energy Association Electrical car on renewable power 0 g  Table 2: Typical CO2-emission figures for various vehicle concepts. (Ref [11])  Primary energy supply, PJ01002003004005006007008009001.0001972 1980 1990 1995 2000 2005 Ref. 2030WindBiomassNatural gasCoalOilTransportFigure 6: The Danish primary energy supply and fuel supply for transport from 1972 to 2005 and for the 2030 reference scenario. (Source: Ref [7]) NORDIC WIND POWER CONFERENCE, NWPC’2007, 1-2 NOVEMBER 2007, ROSKILDE, DENMARK 4                                                            service markets. It is therefore important to initiate pilot project that can test, demonstrate and characterise these topics, and thereby form the basis for standardisations. The infrastructure is not expected to materialise until standards has been established. 3. CONCLUSION The technologies required for the manufacturing of electrical vehicles (especially the battery technology) have developed at lot during the last years in terms of reliability, performance and price, and the developments are expected to continue. The electrical vehicle concepts provide interesting and valuable potentials regarding environmental impact, fossil fuel dependency, energy system flexibility, and driving characteristics. And the electrical vehicles may be introduced through a step-by-step development from the present hybrid vehicles, over plug-in to the vehicle-to-grid, providing the full potential. This in combination leads to an expected deployment of electrical vehicles within the next 10 years. In a visionary energy plan for the Danish energy system in 2030, developed by the Danish Society of Engineers in 2006, 20 % of the road transport is based on electricity and 20 % is based on bio-fuels. This, together with other initiatives to increase the flexibility in the power system, allows for up to 55-60 % of the electricity consumption covered by wind power. A fleet of 0.5 mio electrical vehicles (corresponding to 20 % of the expected vehicles in 2030 with the present grow rate), each having a battery capacity of 50 kWh and a 5 kW inverter, and in average connected to the grid in 50 % of the time represents a power capacity of 1.2 GW and an energy capacity of 12 GWh – corresponding to the maximum power generation from 250 × 5 MW wind turbines in 10 hours. ACKNOWLEDGEMENT Acknowledgment is made to the Danish Society of Engineers. REFERENCES [1] Ingeniørforeningens Energiplan 2030 - Hovedrapport. Danish Society of Engineers, IDA, Copenhagen, 2006. [2] The Danish Society of Engineers’ Energy Plan 2030 – Summary. Danish Society of Engineers, IDA, Copenhagen, 2006. [3] H. Lund and B. V. Mathiesen., Ingeniørforeningens Energiplan 2030 - Tekniske energisystemanalyser, samfundsøkonomisk konsekvensvurdering og kvantificering af erhvervspotentialer. Baggrundsrapport (Danish Society of Engineers' Energy Plan 2030). Danish Society of Engineers, IDA, Copenhagen, 2006. [4] Det fremtidige danske energisystem – Teknologiscenarier. Danish Board of Technology (Teknologirådet), 2007. [5] Energy Strategy 2025 - Perspectives to 2025 and Draft action plan for the future electricity infrastructure. The Danish Ministry of Transport and Energy, Copenhagen, 2005. [6] P. Nørgaard, H. Lund, B.V. Mathiesen. Perspectives of the IDA Energy Year 2006 project. Presentation: Risø International Energy Conference, 2007. [7] B.V. Mathiesen, H. Lund, P. Nørgaard. Integrated transport and renewable energy systems. Conference paper: Dubrovnik Conference on Sustainable Development of Energy, Water and Environment Systems, 2007. [8] H. Lund, B.V. Mathiesen. Energy System Analysis of 100 per cent Renewable Energy Systems. Conference paper: Dubrovnik Conference on Sustainable Development of Energy, Water and Environment Systems, 2007. [9] H. Lund. EnergyPLAN - Advanced Energy Systems Analysis Computer Model - Documentation Version 7.0. Aalborg Univerity, Aalborg, Denmark, 2007. [10] Jørgen Horstmann. Elbiler i Danmark – sammenfattende rapport. Miljøstyrelsen, Denmark, 2005. [11] Klaus Illum. Personbiltransporten i Danmark – ved vendepunktet. Notat, 2007. i  IDA Energy Year 2006 web: http://ida.dk/Netvaerk/Energiaar+2006 ii  EnergyPLAN web: www.energyplan.eu 

The transport sectors potential contribution to the flexibility in the power sector required by large-scale wind power integration

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The transport sectors potential contribution to the flexibility in the power sector required by large-scale wind power integration

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