Assessment of Ultimate Bending Moment of Ships from a Reliability Point of View, Using Independent Perturbations Method

Abstract

peer reviewedThis paper presents a method to asses hull girder ultimate bending moment distribution, taking into account parameters uncertainty. This method is a part of a research activity carried out at University of Liege. The method is able to compute four statistical moments of ultimate strength distribution: average, standard deviation, skewness and kurtosis. Geometry parameters, material parameters and initial imperfections (initial deflections and residual stresses) are considered as random variables and a distribution is associated to each of them. Ultimate bending moment algorithm is a progressive collapse analysis based on Smith method and associated with the load-end shortening model proposed by Bureau Veritas and Joint Bulker Project Rules (JBP). In order to perform a reliability analysis, this algorithm is coupled with independent perturbations method. The advantage is a lower number of simulations compared to the standard Monte-Carlo procedure and a good use of the initial information that is available. The paper contains also a comparative analysis between the presented method and a linear sensitivity analysis performed by the ISSC 2000 “Ultimate Strength” committee for a VLCC structure